Key Takeaways
- • CryptoQuant analyst RugaResearch put the combined 30-day spot-and-perpetual Bitcoin demand estimate at negative 348,000 BTC on November 10, the weakest reading that month, even as the spot component improved by roughly 29,500 BTC from November 7 to November 10.
- • Perpetual-futures demand deteriorated by about 63,500 BTC over the same period, more than offsetting the spot improvement and leaving both components below zero.
- • Bitcoin traded near $73,478 on November 12, with the recovery attempt described as vulnerable ahead of the October Producer Price Index release on Friday, November 13, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.
- • US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $300 million on November 11 per Farside's latest completed row, pointing to continued withdrawals rather than stabilization.
- • CoinNiel's preliminary November 11 data showed the all-exchange funding rate falling to 0.0051% from 0.0113%, a lower long funding cost, while open interest rose 1.2% to about $26 billion.
Summary
Bitcoin's spot-demand signal is improving, but a sharper deterioration in perpetual futures is offsetting those gains, according to CryptoSlate. With Bitcoin trading near $73,000, the split leaves its attempted recovery exposed ahead of Friday's US producer-inflation release.
In a November 11 CryptoQuant note, analyst RugaResearch placed the combined 30-day spot-and-perpetual demand estimate at negative 348,000 BTC on November 10, its weakest reading that month. Between November 7 and November 10, the spot proxy improved by approximately 29,500 BTC, while the perpetual-futures estimate deteriorated by about 63,500 BTC. Both components remained below zero. CryptoSlate notes that this is an analyst proxy rather than a purchase count, that its public description omits the formula, exchange coverage and absolute component levels, and that it cannot be compared directly with the negative 284,000 BTC apparent-demand reading from its November 11 coverage.
A separate CryptoQuant note by CoinNiel reported roughly 9,956 BTC in net exchange inflows on November 10, followed by about 981 BTC in preliminary net outflows on November 11. CoinNiel labeled the latest figure preliminary. The all-exchange funding rate fell to 0.0051% from 0.0113%, meaning longs were still paying shorts at a lower rate. Open interest rose 1.2% to about $26 billion, near its seven-day average through November 10. Because open interest includes both long and short positions, the increase does not show which side is driving the demand split.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs added a separate caution, with Farside's latest completed row showing net outflows of $300 million on November 11. Smaller withdrawals or sustained inflows would strengthen the stabilization case.
The macro backdrop centers on the Bureau of Labor Statistics' October Producer Price Index, scheduled for Friday, November 13, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said in a November 10 speech that inflation remained too high and leaned toward a quarter-point December rate increase under his expected inflation path, a conditional view rather than an FOMC commitment. A PPI report reinforcing tighter-policy expectations could keep financing conditions restrictive, while a softer print could ease that pressure. Friday's price reaction will determine whether the persistence test holds, since renewed spot weakness or an accelerating futures drag would undermine stabilization.
In a November 11 CryptoQuant note, analyst RugaResearch placed the combined 30-day spot-and-perpetual demand estimate at negative 348,000 BTC on November 10, its weakest reading that month. Between November 7 and November 10, the spot proxy improved by approximately 29,500 BTC, while the perpetual-futures estimate deteriorated by about 63,500 BTC. Both components remained below zero. CryptoSlate notes that this is an analyst proxy rather than a purchase count, that its public description omits the formula, exchange coverage and absolute component levels, and that it cannot be compared directly with the negative 284,000 BTC apparent-demand reading from its November 11 coverage.
A separate CryptoQuant note by CoinNiel reported roughly 9,956 BTC in net exchange inflows on November 10, followed by about 981 BTC in preliminary net outflows on November 11. CoinNiel labeled the latest figure preliminary. The all-exchange funding rate fell to 0.0051% from 0.0113%, meaning longs were still paying shorts at a lower rate. Open interest rose 1.2% to about $26 billion, near its seven-day average through November 10. Because open interest includes both long and short positions, the increase does not show which side is driving the demand split.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs added a separate caution, with Farside's latest completed row showing net outflows of $300 million on November 11. Smaller withdrawals or sustained inflows would strengthen the stabilization case.
The macro backdrop centers on the Bureau of Labor Statistics' October Producer Price Index, scheduled for Friday, November 13, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said in a November 10 speech that inflation remained too high and leaned toward a quarter-point December rate increase under his expected inflation path, a conditional view rather than an FOMC commitment. A PPI report reinforcing tighter-policy expectations could keep financing conditions restrictive, while a softer print could ease that pressure. Friday's price reaction will determine whether the persistence test holds, since renewed spot weakness or an accelerating futures drag would undermine stabilization.
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