Key Takeaways
- • Bitwise projects Bitcoin will reach $1.6 million by 2036, roughly 19 times its $83,557 starting price, with about 82% of that value (approximately $27.5 trillion of a $33.6 trillion total) resting on the store-of-value market it shares with gold.
- • The base case requires Bitcoin to capture 25% of a combined gold and Bitcoin market expected to grow from $31.1 trillion to $109.8 trillion by 2036.
- • Bitwise's bear case, which cuts the store-of-value share to 2.5% and assigns zero to other markets, yields a 2036 price of $130,686, a 4.6% annual return.
- • Bitwise's base case implies a 34.3% annual return, well above JPMorgan's base-case scenario of 10% a year for 2036.
- • Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with gold reached a record 0.58 on September 11, and the model assumes a 0.21 correlation over the next decade versus a 10-year average of 0.11.
Summary
Bitwise projects that Bitcoin (BTC) will reach $1.6 million by 2036, about 19 times its $83,557 starting price, according to a BeInCrypto report. The firm's total addressable market model sizes each market Bitcoin could serve, applies a penetration rate, and divides by the full 21 million coin supply. The store-of-value segment accounts for about $27.5 trillion of the model's $33.6 trillion total, roughly 82% of projected 2036 value, which makes the target highly sensitive to a single assumption: how much of gold's role Bitcoin can take.
Bitwise expects the combined gold and Bitcoin market to grow from $31.1 trillion to $109.8 trillion by 2036. Its base case gives Bitcoin 25% of that pool. At the starting price, Bitcoin's 20.1 million circulating coins are worth about $1.7 trillion, roughly 5% of today's $31.1 trillion market. The six other markets in the model, including institutional portfolios and national treasury reserves, add only about $6 trillion combined.
Bitwise cites Bitcoin's tightening link with gold, noting that its 90-day correlation with gold reached a record 0.58 on September 11. The report says it expects this relationship "to persist and deepen over time as awareness of bitcoin's store-of-value properties continues to grow." The model assumes a 0.21 correlation with gold over the next decade, up from a 10-year average of 0.11.
The bear case reduces the store-of-value share to 2.5% and gives every other market zero, producing a 2036 price of $130,686, a 4.6% annual return. The article reports Bitcoin trading at 79,902, down 1.12% over the past day. Bitwise's base case implies a 34.3% annual return, far above JPMorgan's 2036 base-case scenarios of 10% a year. The article also notes that Jim Cramer said this month he still prefers gold for portfolio insurance over Bitcoin.
Bitwise lists quantum computing, AI-driven mathematical advances, and regulatory reversal as key risks to its projection.
Bitwise expects the combined gold and Bitcoin market to grow from $31.1 trillion to $109.8 trillion by 2036. Its base case gives Bitcoin 25% of that pool. At the starting price, Bitcoin's 20.1 million circulating coins are worth about $1.7 trillion, roughly 5% of today's $31.1 trillion market. The six other markets in the model, including institutional portfolios and national treasury reserves, add only about $6 trillion combined.
Bitwise cites Bitcoin's tightening link with gold, noting that its 90-day correlation with gold reached a record 0.58 on September 11. The report says it expects this relationship "to persist and deepen over time as awareness of bitcoin's store-of-value properties continues to grow." The model assumes a 0.21 correlation with gold over the next decade, up from a 10-year average of 0.11.
The bear case reduces the store-of-value share to 2.5% and gives every other market zero, producing a 2036 price of $130,686, a 4.6% annual return. The article reports Bitcoin trading at 79,902, down 1.12% over the past day. Bitwise's base case implies a 34.3% annual return, far above JPMorgan's 2036 base-case scenarios of 10% a year. The article also notes that Jim Cramer said this month he still prefers gold for portfolio insurance over Bitcoin.
Bitwise lists quantum computing, AI-driven mathematical advances, and regulatory reversal as key risks to its projection.
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