Key Takeaways
- • Bitwise's 2027 Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report projects a main-scenario Bitcoin price of approximately $1.6 million (calculated at $1,599,766) by 2036, up from a prior $1.3 million target for 2035.
- • Bitwise's scenarios range from a bearish $130,686 to a bullish $3,667,911 by 2036, based on a starting price of $83,557 as of September 30.
- • The main-case model assumes Bitcoin captures 25% of a store-of-value market (gold plus Bitcoin) that grows from roughly $31.1 trillion to $109.8 trillion, implying about $27.5 trillion in Bitcoin market value.
- • Bitwise cites institutional demand, with institutions managing about $147 trillion in assets (per Boston Consulting Group) and a 1% to 5% allocation implying $1.5 trillion to $7.4 trillion in purchases.
- • Bitwise argues institutionalization could limit future drawdowns, noting the projected 53.4% decline from the October 6, 2025 peak of $126,080 to $58,717 on June 30, 2026 is milder than prior cycle declines of 77% to 86%.
Summary
Crypto asset manager Bitwise has raised its long-term Bitcoin price forecast, projecting in its main scenario that Bitcoin could reach approximately $1.6 million in 2036, according to its report "2027 Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions," prepared by a research team including Matt Hougan and Ryan Rasmussen. The forecast is up from the firm's previous target of $1.3 million by 2035, with the forecast period moved to 2036 and the expected annual compound growth rate raised from 28.3% to 34.3%. Bitwise attributed the revision to growth in markets where Bitcoin can gain share and to greater confidence in long-term adoption.
The model estimates how much Bitcoin could attract from gold, institutional portfolios, government reserves and corporate treasuries, divides the implied inflows by the 21 million BTC maximum supply, and arrives at a per-coin price. The main scenario relies chiefly on the store-of-value market, which Bitwise expects to expand from about $31.1 trillion to $109.8 trillion by 2036. A 25% Bitcoin share corresponds to roughly $27.5 trillion in the model. The report uses the full 21 million supply, without deducting lost coins, and includes unmined BTC.
The report presents three scenarios rather than a single target. The bearish case points to $130,686 for 2036 (4.6% compound annual growth), the main case to about $1.6 million (34.3%), and the bullish case to $3,667,911 (46%). The scenarios differ mainly in Bitcoin's assumed share of the store-of-value market: 2.5% in the bear case, 25% in the main case and 50% in the bull case. The calculations start from a price of $83,557 as of September 30.
Citing Boston Consulting Group data, Bitwise says institutional investors manage about $147 trillion in assets. If those investors allocated 1% to 5% of their portfolios to Bitcoin over the next decade, the firm estimates purchases of roughly $1.5 trillion to $7.4 trillion. The report also points to U.S. spot Bitcoin investment products, which have reached $108 billion in assets, and to large wealth management platforms expanding access to them. On supply, about 20.1 million of the 21 million BTC are already in circulation, and Bitwise expects annual new supply growth to fall from about 0.8% to 0.4% in 2028 and 0.2% in 2032.
Bitwise argues institutionalization could moderate Bitcoin's historically severe drawdowns. The report notes Bitcoin is projected to fall 53.4%, from its October 6, 2025 peak of $126,080 to $58,717 on June 30, 2026. Previous major cycles saw peak-to-trough losses of 86%, 84% and 77%. Bitwise says holding above the June low could mean this cycle ends with a smaller decline, while still expecting investor psychology to influence prices even as the four-year cycle's influence weakens. The report is not investment advice.
The model estimates how much Bitcoin could attract from gold, institutional portfolios, government reserves and corporate treasuries, divides the implied inflows by the 21 million BTC maximum supply, and arrives at a per-coin price. The main scenario relies chiefly on the store-of-value market, which Bitwise expects to expand from about $31.1 trillion to $109.8 trillion by 2036. A 25% Bitcoin share corresponds to roughly $27.5 trillion in the model. The report uses the full 21 million supply, without deducting lost coins, and includes unmined BTC.
The report presents three scenarios rather than a single target. The bearish case points to $130,686 for 2036 (4.6% compound annual growth), the main case to about $1.6 million (34.3%), and the bullish case to $3,667,911 (46%). The scenarios differ mainly in Bitcoin's assumed share of the store-of-value market: 2.5% in the bear case, 25% in the main case and 50% in the bull case. The calculations start from a price of $83,557 as of September 30.
Citing Boston Consulting Group data, Bitwise says institutional investors manage about $147 trillion in assets. If those investors allocated 1% to 5% of their portfolios to Bitcoin over the next decade, the firm estimates purchases of roughly $1.5 trillion to $7.4 trillion. The report also points to U.S. spot Bitcoin investment products, which have reached $108 billion in assets, and to large wealth management platforms expanding access to them. On supply, about 20.1 million of the 21 million BTC are already in circulation, and Bitwise expects annual new supply growth to fall from about 0.8% to 0.4% in 2028 and 0.2% in 2032.
Bitwise argues institutionalization could moderate Bitcoin's historically severe drawdowns. The report notes Bitcoin is projected to fall 53.4%, from its October 6, 2025 peak of $126,080 to $58,717 on June 30, 2026. Previous major cycles saw peak-to-trough losses of 86%, 84% and 77%. Bitwise says holding above the June low could mean this cycle ends with a smaller decline, while still expecting investor psychology to influence prices even as the four-year cycle's influence weakens. The report is not investment advice.
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