Key Takeaways
- • Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan projects NEAR could reach $155.85 by 2030 in the firm's base case, roughly 40x the current token price, with a maximum projection of $562.81 and a worst-case price of $1.63.
- • The base-case model assumes 328 million AI agents each execute 1,000 transactions annually at an average cost of $5, applies a 0.3% fee, and uses a 50x valuation multiple.
- • Hougan argues NEAR's valuation case does not depend on winning the AI agent market, pointing to its existing blockchain business and NEAR Intents, which has processed almost $30 billion in cross-chain transactions.
- • Bitwise launched a spot NEAR ETF on NYSE Arca at the end of September 2026 under the ticker NRR, charging a 0.75% annual fee and offering staking with an estimated 5.3% annual yield.
Summary
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan says NEAR could climb to 40 times its current value by 2030. According to the article, the firm's base-case outlook points to $155.85 by 2030, while its maximum projection stands at $562.81, more than 100 times the token's current value. In a worst-case scenario, the price could fall to $1.63. Hougan also said that even a 40x to 50x increase would leave NEAR valued below Ethereum's current level, a point he made in response to a question posed by Milk Road Crypto.
The investment thesis centers on autonomous AI agents that can carry out tasks and financial transactions, including payments, trading, booking services and digital asset management, without human intervention. Such activity would require infrastructure to move money between applications across blockchains. NEAR is positioning itself for that demand through NEAR Intents, which lets users and applications run cross-chain transactions without managing the underlying complexity, and through its chain abstraction technology.
Bitwise's base-case valuation rests on transaction revenue. It estimates 328 million AI agents performing 1,000 transactions per year at an average cost of $5, applies a 0.3% fee, and uses a 50x valuation multiple to arrive at $155.85. Hougan argued NEAR does not need to dominate the AI agent economy to justify that value, noting that the network already operates an active blockchain business and that its AI ambitions are an additional growth opportunity. He also cited NEAR Intents' nearly $30 billion in processed cross-chain volume as evidence that the model rests on a working product. Speaking on The Rollup podcast, Sovereign CEO Sal Ternullo said user activity is becoming more closely tied to the token's value.
Bitwise Asset Management launched a spot NEAR ETF on NYSE Arca at the end of September, giving US investors regulated exposure to the layer-1 token with staking. The fund trades under the ticker NRR and charges a 0.75% annual fee. According to Bitwise, staking is handled by its internal team, and on-chain data from September 25 showed an estimated annual staking yield of 5.3%. Per the prospectus, 33% of gross staking rewards goes to staking agents, custodians and Bitwise, with the trust retaining 67%. Rewards are not guaranteed and are reflected in the fund's NAV, and investors remain exposed to NEAR price movements.
The investment thesis centers on autonomous AI agents that can carry out tasks and financial transactions, including payments, trading, booking services and digital asset management, without human intervention. Such activity would require infrastructure to move money between applications across blockchains. NEAR is positioning itself for that demand through NEAR Intents, which lets users and applications run cross-chain transactions without managing the underlying complexity, and through its chain abstraction technology.
Bitwise's base-case valuation rests on transaction revenue. It estimates 328 million AI agents performing 1,000 transactions per year at an average cost of $5, applies a 0.3% fee, and uses a 50x valuation multiple to arrive at $155.85. Hougan argued NEAR does not need to dominate the AI agent economy to justify that value, noting that the network already operates an active blockchain business and that its AI ambitions are an additional growth opportunity. He also cited NEAR Intents' nearly $30 billion in processed cross-chain volume as evidence that the model rests on a working product. Speaking on The Rollup podcast, Sovereign CEO Sal Ternullo said user activity is becoming more closely tied to the token's value.
Bitwise Asset Management launched a spot NEAR ETF on NYSE Arca at the end of September, giving US investors regulated exposure to the layer-1 token with staking. The fund trades under the ticker NRR and charges a 0.75% annual fee. According to Bitwise, staking is handled by its internal team, and on-chain data from September 25 showed an estimated annual staking yield of 5.3%. Per the prospectus, 33% of gross staking rewards goes to staking agents, custodians and Bitwise, with the trust retaining 67%. Rewards are not guaranteed and are reflected in the fund's NAV, and investors remain exposed to NEAR price movements.
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