Key Takeaways
- • U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $110.3 million on Monday, October 27, with all of it flowing into BlackRock's IBIT, while the other eleven funds added nothing, according to SoSoValue figures cited by 99Bitcoins.
- • Bitcoin ETFs are roughly $202 million in net outflows for October after 18 trading days, including a $635.5 million single-day outflow on October 22, the largest since June 2025.
- • The twelve funds hold $102.84 billion, about 6.4% of Bitcoin's market capitalisation, while River's chart puts funds and ETFs at 8.5% of the circulating supply that can still trade.
- • BTC USD traded near $79,700 and sits below its 50-day EMA at $80,756; support is at $79,221 and resistance at $81,480, with the 200-day EMA at $76,380 as the next floor.
- • The Federal Reserve announces its rate decision Wednesday at 18:00 UTC, a near-term catalyst for whether ETF buying broadens beyond IBIT.
Summary
Bitcoin traded near $79,700 on Tuesday, October 27, holding above a support zone after U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $110.3 million in inflows on Monday. That inflow ended a two-day outflow run totaling $773.4 million, and all of Monday's buying came from BlackRock's IBIT, according to SoSoValue data cited in the report. None of the other eleven spot funds added capital. The twelve funds now hold $102.84 billion, roughly 6.4% of Bitcoin's market capitalisation.
Flows for the month have been volatile but net negative. Counting Monday, ETFs are about $202 million in net outflows for October across 18 trading days that split almost evenly between buying and selling. The funds took in $526.6 million on October 19, led by $665.2 million into IBIT, and $528.4 million on October 21. They then lost $635.5 million on October 22, the largest one-day outflow since June 2025, followed by $137.9 million on Friday, with IBIT, Fidelity's FBTC and ARK's ARKB leading the selling.
River's ownership breakdown, cited by 99Bitcoins, shows individuals hold 79.6% of Bitcoin once Satoshi's coins, lost coins and unmined supply are excluded. Businesses hold 9.4%, funds and ETFs 8.5%, and governments 2.5%. The report argues the small ETF share explains why flows matter: most individually held coins sit still for months, while ETF demand is transacted every trading day and must be met with spot Bitcoin, making the funds the marginal buyer or seller.
On the technical side, Bitcoin tested the $79,221 to $79,370 area on Saturday and again on Monday, with buyers stepping in both times. Price remains below the 50-day EMA at $80,756, which it lost on Sunday. Resistance sits at $81,480, where recent bounces stalled, and then $82,850. A daily close below $79,221 would open a move toward the 200-day EMA at $76,380, about 4% lower. The Fed decision on Wednesday at 18:00 UTC is the next event; the report says broader ETF buying beyond IBIT would support a path back above the 50-day EMA, while a return of October 22-style selling would make a third hold of $79,221 unlikely.
Flows for the month have been volatile but net negative. Counting Monday, ETFs are about $202 million in net outflows for October across 18 trading days that split almost evenly between buying and selling. The funds took in $526.6 million on October 19, led by $665.2 million into IBIT, and $528.4 million on October 21. They then lost $635.5 million on October 22, the largest one-day outflow since June 2025, followed by $137.9 million on Friday, with IBIT, Fidelity's FBTC and ARK's ARKB leading the selling.
River's ownership breakdown, cited by 99Bitcoins, shows individuals hold 79.6% of Bitcoin once Satoshi's coins, lost coins and unmined supply are excluded. Businesses hold 9.4%, funds and ETFs 8.5%, and governments 2.5%. The report argues the small ETF share explains why flows matter: most individually held coins sit still for months, while ETF demand is transacted every trading day and must be met with spot Bitcoin, making the funds the marginal buyer or seller.
On the technical side, Bitcoin tested the $79,221 to $79,370 area on Saturday and again on Monday, with buyers stepping in both times. Price remains below the 50-day EMA at $80,756, which it lost on Sunday. Resistance sits at $81,480, where recent bounces stalled, and then $82,850. A daily close below $79,221 would open a move toward the 200-day EMA at $76,380, about 4% lower. The Fed decision on Wednesday at 18:00 UTC is the next event; the report says broader ETF buying beyond IBIT would support a path back above the 50-day EMA, while a return of October 22-style selling would make a third hold of $79,221 unlikely.
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