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Crypto: Bulls Counting on Seasonality

Reported by Investing
Oct 19, 2026· 3 min read
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Key Takeaways
  • • Total crypto market capitalisation stood at $2.76T on Monday, down 2.5% over seven days, trading in a narrow range around the 50-day moving average with support near $2.70T and resistance at $2.80T.
  • • Bitcoin was up 1.4% over 24 hours to $82.8K, with bulls buying dips near the 50-day moving average, a move described as a rebound rather than a resumption of upward momentum.
  • • Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US recorded outflows for a third consecutive week, totalling $320 million, following $228.6 million in outflows the prior week.
  • • Crypto whales have added roughly 60,000 BTC since late August, bringing holdings to nearly 3 million BTC, according to CryptoQuant.
  • • Bitcoin's 12-month average daily volatility has fallen to 43%, comparable to most equities, which Grayscale attributes to institutional inflows and regulated spot ETF launches.
Summary
The crypto market capitalisation was $2.76T on Monday, 2.5% below its level seven days earlier, according to Investing.com's FxPro Analyst Team. Prices have traded in a tight band around the 50-day moving average for four sessions, finding support on dips to $2.70T but lacking the momentum to break above $2.80T. Over the prior 24 hours, the largest-cap coins gained between 1% and 2%, and among the most liquid coins, advancers outnumbered decliners by nearly two to one. The biggest declines were recorded in three coins, falling 3.8%, 2.4% and 2.2%.

Bitcoin rose 1.4% over 24 hours to $82.8K. Bulls continued to buy dips near the 50-day moving average over the weekend, and risk appetite in Asian trading supported the move. The analyst team characterised the advance as a rebound rather than a resumption of upward momentum. The article notes that last summer, price fluctuations around this level lasted over a month before a strong surge on 19 August signalled the start of a bull run. Investors in major coins are relying on seasonal patterns, as a local bottom in traditional markets often forms toward the end of October, to recover last week's losses.

Flows and holdings present a mixed picture. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen outflows for three consecutive weeks, totalling $320 million in the latest week after $228.6 million the week before. Chainalysis reports that the US has become a net importer of Bitcoin for the first time since 2022, while other countries are actively buying dollars, with American investors viewing Bitcoin as a scarce safe-haven asset. CryptoQuant data shows whale holdings rising by 60,000 BTC since the end of August to nearly 3 million BTC, which could absorb profit-taking sales and support further growth.

Volatility has compressed structurally. Bitcoin's 12-month average daily volatility has dropped to 43%, on par with most shares, with only 19% of the index's shares outperforming BTC on this metric. Grayscale attributes the decline to institutional participation and the launch of regulated spot ETFs.

Separately, French company reported a net loss of €69.5 million ($78.1 million) for the first half of 2026, driven by a decline in the value of its Bitcoin reserves. The company nonetheless increased its holdings to 3,538 BTC by the end of September, up from 2,823 BTC in January.

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Sources

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AlphaMaven summarised this story from the reporting below. Each link opens the original article.

Investing Crypto: Bulls Counting on Seasonality