Key Takeaways
- • Leopold Aschenbrenner's hedge fund, Situational Awareness, has deployed over $8.5 billion in put options betting against major AI chip and semiconductor stocks as of Q1 2026, according to its May 18 13F filing.
- • Nvidia represents the largest bearish position at $1.56 billion in puts, followed by $2 billion in puts on the VanEck Semiconductor ETF, signaling conviction that valuations in chip stocks may face significant downside pressure.
- • The fund maintains substantial short positions across the semiconductor ecosystem: Oracle ($1.07 billion), Broadcom ($1 billion), AMD ($969.2 million), TSMC ($535.1 million), ASML ($494.1 million), and Intel ($159.1 million).
- • Aschenbrenner, who gained attention in 2024 for his paper "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead" warning of AI progress risks, launched his hedge fund three months after publication and is now testing his thesis through market positions.
- • The bearish positioning aligns with broader skepticism from prominent investors including "The Big Short" investor Michael Burry, who disclosed a short position against Nvidia in late 2025 and maintained skepticism toward the tech-fueled market rally.
Summary
Leopold Aschenbrenner's hedge fund, Situational Awareness, has established a substantial short portfolio targeting the AI chip sector, deploying approximately $8.5 billion in put option positions across leading semiconductor and technology companies. According to the fund's 13F filing disclosed on May 18, 2026, Nvidia alone carries $1.56 billion in bearish bets, making it the flagship position in what appears to be a coordinated thesis against semiconductor valuations.
The breadth of the short portfolio extends across the entire AI infrastructure supply chain. Beyond Nvidia, Aschenbrenner's fund holds $2 billion in puts on the VanEck Semiconductor ETF, $1.07 billion against Oracle, $1 billion against Broadcom, and substantial positions against AMD ($969.2 million), TSMC ($535.1 million), ASML ($494.1 million), and Intel ($159.1 million). This diversified short exposure suggests the fund is not betting on a single company's underperformance but rather on a sector-wide correction in semiconductor and AI infrastructure stocks.
Aschenbrenner's trajectory from OpenAI researcher to skeptical hedge fund manager provides context for the positions. He authored the widely-circulated 2024 paper "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead," which raised critical concerns about AI development trajectories and their implications for the technology sector. Launching his hedge fund three months after publication suggests he is now testing these theoretical concerns through active market positions.
The positioning reflects growing institutional skepticism about AI chip stocks at elevated valuations. Michael Burry, the investor known for shorting mortgage-backed securities before the 2008 financial crisis, disclosed his own short position against Nvidia in late 2025 and has maintained a broader bearish stance on the technology-driven market rally. Aschenbrenner's simultaneous placement of large bearish bets indicates alignment with this emerging consensus regarding potential overvaluation in the semiconductor sector despite continued AI infrastructure demand.
The breadth of the short portfolio extends across the entire AI infrastructure supply chain. Beyond Nvidia, Aschenbrenner's fund holds $2 billion in puts on the VanEck Semiconductor ETF, $1.07 billion against Oracle, $1 billion against Broadcom, and substantial positions against AMD ($969.2 million), TSMC ($535.1 million), ASML ($494.1 million), and Intel ($159.1 million). This diversified short exposure suggests the fund is not betting on a single company's underperformance but rather on a sector-wide correction in semiconductor and AI infrastructure stocks.
Aschenbrenner's trajectory from OpenAI researcher to skeptical hedge fund manager provides context for the positions. He authored the widely-circulated 2024 paper "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead," which raised critical concerns about AI development trajectories and their implications for the technology sector. Launching his hedge fund three months after publication suggests he is now testing these theoretical concerns through active market positions.
The positioning reflects growing institutional skepticism about AI chip stocks at elevated valuations. Michael Burry, the investor known for shorting mortgage-backed securities before the 2008 financial crisis, disclosed his own short position against Nvidia in late 2025 and has maintained a broader bearish stance on the technology-driven market rally. Aschenbrenner's simultaneous placement of large bearish bets indicates alignment with this emerging consensus regarding potential overvaluation in the semiconductor sector despite continued AI infrastructure demand.
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