Key Takeaways
- • Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz projects the U.S. CLARITY Act will clear Congress in May 2026 and be signed into law in June, despite recent Senate Banking Committee delays that have stalled momentum since the House passed the legislation in July 2025.
- • The CLARITY Act has emerged as a bipartisan priority framed as essential to U.S. economic competitiveness, with Senator Cynthia Lummis warning on April 10 that the current session represents "the last chance to pass the Clarity Act until at least 2030."
- • Novogratz argues the legislation extends well beyond crypto regulation, enabling tokenization of major corporations like SpaceX and Google for global investor access, and creating financial infrastructure for an estimated 5.5 billion people currently lacking access to U.S. financial products.
- • A central point of contention between banks and the crypto sector involves stablecoin yields and whether they could undercut traditional deposit products, creating friction that has contributed to Senate delays despite industry expectations of markup progress.
- • Galaxy Research has adjusted its passage probability estimates multiple times, reflecting legislative uncertainty—the firm previously lowered odds from 60% to 50% due to a shrinking Senate calendar before later raising them to 75% as September 15 procedural votes approached.
Summary
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz made an optimistic forecast regarding the timeline for U.S. crypto legislation, projecting that the CLARITY Act will advance through Congress in May 2026 and receive presidential signature in June. Speaking on a podcast with SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci, Novogratz stated: "It probably gets done in May. I would say the first week of May is when it goes to the committee, and then soon after Trump will be signing this thing in June." This prediction comes despite recent momentum losses in the Senate, where the Banking Committee failed to schedule a markup hearing by the deadline that industry participants had anticipated.
The CLARITY Act passed the House in July 2025 with bipartisan support, establishing a legislative foundation for comprehensive crypto regulation. However, Senate progress has stalled, and friction over specific provisions has slowed advancement. A key dispute centers on stablecoin yield mechanisms—banks have expressed concern that crypto-native stablecoin yields could compete with and potentially undercut traditional deposit products, creating a contentious issue between the financial services and digital asset sectors.
Novogratz framed the legislation as strategically significant beyond the crypto market, arguing it would facilitate broader economic access and corporate innovation. He described the act as enabling large technology and industrial companies—including SpaceX and Google—to be tokenized and offered to global investors. Novogratz emphasized that approximately 5.5 billion people currently lack access to U.S. financial products, and that blockchain-based infrastructure could serve as the mechanism through which international populations participate in the American economy. "This phone with a crypto wallet is going to be the way the kid in Bhutan or Botswana or Bolivia or Paraguay, you name it, is participating in the American economy," he stated.
Senator Cynthia Lummis issued a high-stakes warning on April 10, characterizing the current legislative session as a critical window. "This is our last chance to pass the Clarity Act until at least 2030. We can't afford to surrender America's financial future," Lummis wrote on social media platform X, underscoring the temporal pressure surrounding passage. Novogratz echoed this framing, describing the legislation as broadly important for both political parties and essential to the country's economic competitiveness.
Galaxy Research's probabilistic assessments have fluctuated as the Senate calendar has compressed and procedural timelines have shifted. The firm reduced its 2026 passage odds from 60% to 50% citing calendar constraints, then subsequently raised odds to 75% as September 15 procedural votes were scheduled. These adjustments reflect the underlying uncertainty regarding whether Senate leadership will allocate floor time and whether banking sector concerns can be resolved through compromise language before the legislative window closes.
The CLARITY Act passed the House in July 2025 with bipartisan support, establishing a legislative foundation for comprehensive crypto regulation. However, Senate progress has stalled, and friction over specific provisions has slowed advancement. A key dispute centers on stablecoin yield mechanisms—banks have expressed concern that crypto-native stablecoin yields could compete with and potentially undercut traditional deposit products, creating a contentious issue between the financial services and digital asset sectors.
Novogratz framed the legislation as strategically significant beyond the crypto market, arguing it would facilitate broader economic access and corporate innovation. He described the act as enabling large technology and industrial companies—including SpaceX and Google—to be tokenized and offered to global investors. Novogratz emphasized that approximately 5.5 billion people currently lack access to U.S. financial products, and that blockchain-based infrastructure could serve as the mechanism through which international populations participate in the American economy. "This phone with a crypto wallet is going to be the way the kid in Bhutan or Botswana or Bolivia or Paraguay, you name it, is participating in the American economy," he stated.
Senator Cynthia Lummis issued a high-stakes warning on April 10, characterizing the current legislative session as a critical window. "This is our last chance to pass the Clarity Act until at least 2030. We can't afford to surrender America's financial future," Lummis wrote on social media platform X, underscoring the temporal pressure surrounding passage. Novogratz echoed this framing, describing the legislation as broadly important for both political parties and essential to the country's economic competitiveness.
Galaxy Research's probabilistic assessments have fluctuated as the Senate calendar has compressed and procedural timelines have shifted. The firm reduced its 2026 passage odds from 60% to 50% citing calendar constraints, then subsequently raised odds to 75% as September 15 procedural votes were scheduled. These adjustments reflect the underlying uncertainty regarding whether Senate leadership will allocate floor time and whether banking sector concerns can be resolved through compromise language before the legislative window closes.
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