Key Takeaways
- • Galaxy Digital's head of research Alex Thorn estimates a 50% probability (or lower) that the CLARITY Act will be signed into law in 2026, reflecting substantial legislative uncertainty in a compressed timeline.
- • Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott has identified three critical unresolved issues blocking markup: stablecoin yield language, DeFi provisions, and securing unanimous Republican committee support; additional complications include ethics provisions, SEC-related concerns, and developer protection rules.
- • Senator Thom Tillis is advocating for a delay of the markup hearing to May to resolve the stablecoin rewards clash between banking and crypto industries, further tightening an already constrained legislative calendar.
- • The bill faces multiple remaining procedural hurdles after committee markup: a 60-vote Senate floor threshold, reconciliation with the Agriculture Committee's version, alignment with the House-passed bill (passed July 2025 with 294-134 support), and presidential signature.
- • Market-based probability assessments have weakened significantly; Polymarket odds for 2026 passage have declined from 82% in February to 47% as of mid-April, reflecting growing skepticism about the bill's prospects.
Summary
Galaxy Digital has assessed the probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 at approximately 50%, with research head Alex Thorn suggesting odds may be even lower. This measured outlook reflects the persistence of multiple unresolved policy disagreements and a rapidly compressing legislative calendar. The crypto market structure bill, which passed the House in July 2025 with strong bipartisan support (294-134 votes), has been the subject of intensive Senate negotiations since January but remains gridlocked on several key provisions.
Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott has publicly identified three primary obstacles to advancing the bill: unresolved stablecoin yield language, contested DeFi provisions, and the requirement to secure support from all Republican committee members before proceeding to markup. Beyond these headline issues, Galaxy Digital notes that additional complications persist, including ethics provisions related to government officials' cryptocurrency holdings, SEC-related regulatory concerns, and provisions governing noncustodial software developer protections under the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act framework. According to Galaxy's analysis, these issues remain "live and could complicate the path forward."
A significant procedural setback has emerged on the timeline front. Senator Thom Tillis, a key negotiator on the Senate Banking Committee, has called for delaying the committee markup from April to May to allow stakeholders additional time to resolve the stablecoin rewards dispute—a central friction point between the banking and crypto industries. Galaxy Digital's assessment explicitly notes that any markup delay past mid-May would materially reduce the probability of 2026 enactment. The compressed Senate calendar presents additional headwinds, as the CLARITY Act must compete for floor time against the Iran military authorization debate, unresolved Department of Homeland Security funding, and a backlog of presidential nominations.
Beyond committee passage, the legislative path requires multiple sequential steps: a 60-vote Senate floor vote, reconciliation with the Agriculture Committee's version of the market structure bill, reconciliation with the House version, and presidential signature. Each step consumes calendar time in a legislative session with diminishing weeks remaining. Market-based probability assessments reflect this uncertainty; Polymarket betting odds for 2026 passage have declined sharply from 82% in February to 47% as of April, suggesting that informed market participants have substantially downgraded their conviction regarding the bill's enactment prospects.
Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott has publicly identified three primary obstacles to advancing the bill: unresolved stablecoin yield language, contested DeFi provisions, and the requirement to secure support from all Republican committee members before proceeding to markup. Beyond these headline issues, Galaxy Digital notes that additional complications persist, including ethics provisions related to government officials' cryptocurrency holdings, SEC-related regulatory concerns, and provisions governing noncustodial software developer protections under the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act framework. According to Galaxy's analysis, these issues remain "live and could complicate the path forward."
A significant procedural setback has emerged on the timeline front. Senator Thom Tillis, a key negotiator on the Senate Banking Committee, has called for delaying the committee markup from April to May to allow stakeholders additional time to resolve the stablecoin rewards dispute—a central friction point between the banking and crypto industries. Galaxy Digital's assessment explicitly notes that any markup delay past mid-May would materially reduce the probability of 2026 enactment. The compressed Senate calendar presents additional headwinds, as the CLARITY Act must compete for floor time against the Iran military authorization debate, unresolved Department of Homeland Security funding, and a backlog of presidential nominations.
Beyond committee passage, the legislative path requires multiple sequential steps: a 60-vote Senate floor vote, reconciliation with the Agriculture Committee's version of the market structure bill, reconciliation with the House version, and presidential signature. Each step consumes calendar time in a legislative session with diminishing weeks remaining. Market-based probability assessments reflect this uncertainty; Polymarket betting odds for 2026 passage have declined sharply from 82% in February to 47% as of April, suggesting that informed market participants have substantially downgraded their conviction regarding the bill's enactment prospects.
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