Key Takeaways
- • Galaxy Digital research argues bitcoin's bear market ended in June 2026 and that the asset is in an accumulation phase, recommending investors buy and hold at current levels, with bitcoin at $81,391 on Oct. 22, 2026, 35% below its October 2025 high and 39% above the June 30, 2026 low.
- • Galaxy cites technical evidence: the 200-week moving average held in June (worst weekly close 4.7% below it, versus 1.4% in 2015, 2.8% in 2018 and 32% in 2022), and the 50-week moving average has been reclaimed for five consecutive weeks through the week ended Oct. 18.
- • Galaxy states the June 2026 drawdown of 53% was the shallowest bear market on record, and that price never traded below the network's cost basis, with the market-value-to-realized-value ratio bottoming at 1.10 versus 0.56, 0.69 and 0.75 at prior lows.
- • Positioning data cited by Galaxy shows basis traders and macro participants have cut ETF and futures exposure by more than half, while CFTC data shows asset manager net long CME bitcoin futures fell 57% from 43.3k BTC at the all-time high to 18.4k BTC.
- • Galaxy's conclusion rests on a view of sovereign debasement risk, with the firm citing $2 trillion deficits at 5% yields, and on the institutional convergence of digital assets and traditional capital markets.
Summary
Galaxy Digital published research on Oct. 22, 2026, originally sent to clients of Galaxy Trading and Galaxy Asset Management, concluding that "now is an attractive time to buy and hold bitcoin." Bitcoin traded at $81,391 on Oct. 22, 3% below the prior day's close of $84,176, and was 35% below its October 2025 high and 39% above the June 30, 2026 low. Galaxy's view is that the bear market ended in June and that bitcoin is in the accumulation phase that has preceded every prior advance.
On technical measures, Galaxy argues the 200-week moving average has served as the floor during bear markets, and that the 50-week average acts as the ceiling. Bitcoin lost the 50-week average in the week ended Nov. 16, 2025, spent 44 weeks below it, and regained it in the week ended Sept. 20, 2026. The week ended Oct. 18 marked the fifth consecutive weekly close above that average. Galaxy notes that of 13 completed reclaims of the 50-week average since 2011, the four that followed spells of 20 weeks or more were not followed by declines exceeding 8.4% in the following year, while seven of the nine reclaims that followed shorter spells fell more than 25% within a year. Galaxy also argues the four-year halving cycle supports its view: at day 916 after the halving, bitcoin is beyond the point at which the three prior cycles bottomed (days 777, 889 and 912), though Galaxy cautions it does not forecast the magnitude of future peaks.
Galaxy characterizes the current drawdown as the shallowest bear market on record at -53%, compared with prior declines of -93%, -85%, -84% and -77%. It states bitcoin never traded below the network's realized value cost basis during this cycle, with the market-value-to-realized-value ratio bottoming at 1.10. Galaxy reports the average cost basis of coins that carried the recovery from $58,525 is $74,811, that price first closed above that level on Aug. 19 at $69,268, and that the spent-output profit ratio stood at 1.009 at the time of writing. Galaxy also reports that coins unmoved for five or more years were spent at an average of 34k BTC per month in 2026, down from 67k in 2024 and 47k in 2025, which the firm interprets as reduced distribution pressure from long-term holders.
On positioning, Galaxy cites CFTC Traders in Financial Futures data showing asset managers' net long in CME bitcoin futures fell 57%, from 43.3k BTC in the week of the all-time high to 18.4k BTC currently. Galaxy argues the fast money has exited while the base of holders remains, and that BTC needs a 53% rise to regain its all-time high while U.S. equities sit near records. The firm also cites a fundamental case based on sovereign debasement risk from $2 trillion deficits at 5% yields, and argues that institutional adoption of digital assets is now undeniable, though the case for non-sovereign, censorship-resistant money remains intact. Galaxy's own author draws parallels to the 2015-2016 and 2018-2019 periods, when institutions embraced blockchain technology while rejecting bitcoin, and notes that prior sentiment shifts of this type marked market lows.
On technical measures, Galaxy argues the 200-week moving average has served as the floor during bear markets, and that the 50-week average acts as the ceiling. Bitcoin lost the 50-week average in the week ended Nov. 16, 2025, spent 44 weeks below it, and regained it in the week ended Sept. 20, 2026. The week ended Oct. 18 marked the fifth consecutive weekly close above that average. Galaxy notes that of 13 completed reclaims of the 50-week average since 2011, the four that followed spells of 20 weeks or more were not followed by declines exceeding 8.4% in the following year, while seven of the nine reclaims that followed shorter spells fell more than 25% within a year. Galaxy also argues the four-year halving cycle supports its view: at day 916 after the halving, bitcoin is beyond the point at which the three prior cycles bottomed (days 777, 889 and 912), though Galaxy cautions it does not forecast the magnitude of future peaks.
Galaxy characterizes the current drawdown as the shallowest bear market on record at -53%, compared with prior declines of -93%, -85%, -84% and -77%. It states bitcoin never traded below the network's realized value cost basis during this cycle, with the market-value-to-realized-value ratio bottoming at 1.10. Galaxy reports the average cost basis of coins that carried the recovery from $58,525 is $74,811, that price first closed above that level on Aug. 19 at $69,268, and that the spent-output profit ratio stood at 1.009 at the time of writing. Galaxy also reports that coins unmoved for five or more years were spent at an average of 34k BTC per month in 2026, down from 67k in 2024 and 47k in 2025, which the firm interprets as reduced distribution pressure from long-term holders.
On positioning, Galaxy cites CFTC Traders in Financial Futures data showing asset managers' net long in CME bitcoin futures fell 57%, from 43.3k BTC in the week of the all-time high to 18.4k BTC currently. Galaxy argues the fast money has exited while the base of holders remains, and that BTC needs a 53% rise to regain its all-time high while U.S. equities sit near records. The firm also cites a fundamental case based on sovereign debasement risk from $2 trillion deficits at 5% yields, and argues that institutional adoption of digital assets is now undeniable, though the case for non-sovereign, censorship-resistant money remains intact. Galaxy's own author draws parallels to the 2015-2016 and 2018-2019 periods, when institutions embraced blockchain technology while rejecting bitcoin, and notes that prior sentiment shifts of this type marked market lows.
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