Key Takeaways
- • CLARITY Act passed the House on July 17, 2025 with strong bipartisan support (294-134 vote), establishing clear regulatory framework for digital assets and crypto market structure.
- • Galaxy Digital's Alex Thorn identifies "Build Now Act" (Section 904) inclusion as a critical mechanism to secure bipartisan backing in Senate negotiations, particularly for Republican votes on the Banking Committee.
- • Three unresolved issues remain blocking passage: stablecoin yield language, DeFi provisions, and securing unanimous Republican committee support, with additional complications around noncustodial software developer treatment and SEC jurisdiction.
- • Legislative timeline is critical—Senate Banking Committee markup must occur by mid-May 2026 to maintain meaningful passage probability; slippage past mid-May would sharply reduce odds of enactment in 2026 as the bill competes against Iran authorization, DHS funding, and nomination backlogs.
- • Galaxy Digital assesses passage odds at approximately 50-50 in 2026, with CEO Mike Novogratz projecting the bill could reach President Trump's desk by June if markup proceeds as scheduled.
Summary
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act) represents the most comprehensive legislative effort to establish regulatory clarity for crypto market structure. After passing the House on July 17, 2025 with a decisive 294-134 bipartisan majority, the bill entered intensive Senate negotiations beginning in January 2026. According to Galaxy Digital's analysis, the legislative endgame is now entering a critical phase with a rapidly closing window for passage.
Alex Thorn, Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy Digital, highlighted that the inclusion of the "Build Now Act" as Section 904 within the CLARITY Act draft represents a strategic addition designed to broaden bipartisan political support. This provision emerged as the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee prepared for markup, expected to occur in late April or early May 2026. The Build Now Act component appears targeted at attracting Republican backing essential for advancing the measure through committee and floor votes.
However, three substantive policy issues remain unresolved according to Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott (R-S.C.): stablecoin yield language, DeFi regulatory provisions, and the critical requirement to secure all Republican committee votes. Beyond these core disputes, several secondary issues continue to complicate negotiations, including the treatment of noncustodial software developers under the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act, ethics provisions governing government officials' crypto holdings, and outstanding SEC jurisdiction concerns. According to reporting from Punchbowl, Senator Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), a key Banking Committee negotiator, has called for postponing markup until May, creating additional scheduling pressure.
The legislative calendar presents a substantial constraint. After committee markup, CLARITY must clear a 60-vote Senate floor vote, be reconciled with the Agriculture Committee's parallel version, be reconciled with the House-passed bill, and secure presidential signature. This multi-step process must compete for scarce Senate floor time against the Iran military authorization debate, unresolved Department of Homeland Security funding, and a backlog of executive nominations. Galaxy Digital's assessment indicates that if committee markup slips past mid-May, the probability of enactment in 2026 drops sharply. Galaxy currently estimates passage odds at approximately 50-50 for 2026, while CEO Mike Novogratz projects the bill could reach the President's desk by June if the legislative schedule holds.
Alex Thorn, Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy Digital, highlighted that the inclusion of the "Build Now Act" as Section 904 within the CLARITY Act draft represents a strategic addition designed to broaden bipartisan political support. This provision emerged as the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee prepared for markup, expected to occur in late April or early May 2026. The Build Now Act component appears targeted at attracting Republican backing essential for advancing the measure through committee and floor votes.
However, three substantive policy issues remain unresolved according to Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott (R-S.C.): stablecoin yield language, DeFi regulatory provisions, and the critical requirement to secure all Republican committee votes. Beyond these core disputes, several secondary issues continue to complicate negotiations, including the treatment of noncustodial software developers under the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act, ethics provisions governing government officials' crypto holdings, and outstanding SEC jurisdiction concerns. According to reporting from Punchbowl, Senator Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), a key Banking Committee negotiator, has called for postponing markup until May, creating additional scheduling pressure.
The legislative calendar presents a substantial constraint. After committee markup, CLARITY must clear a 60-vote Senate floor vote, be reconciled with the Agriculture Committee's parallel version, be reconciled with the House-passed bill, and secure presidential signature. This multi-step process must compete for scarce Senate floor time against the Iran military authorization debate, unresolved Department of Homeland Security funding, and a backlog of executive nominations. Galaxy Digital's assessment indicates that if committee markup slips past mid-May, the probability of enactment in 2026 drops sharply. Galaxy currently estimates passage odds at approximately 50-50 for 2026, while CEO Mike Novogratz projects the bill could reach the President's desk by June if the legislative schedule holds.
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