Key Takeaways
- • Galaxy Digital (GLXY) launched an institutional OTC prediction-markets trading desk through its Global Markets desk, offering block-size, principal-counterparty execution on Kalshi and Polymarket event contracts.
- • The launch was anchored by a $10 million trade with crypto-native hedge fund Arca, tied to the outcome of the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act, executed on Kalshi.
- • Galaxy's own research desk puts the probability of CLARITY Act passage at 75%, with a signing date estimated for the week of August 3, according to the firm.
- • The desk reflects a broader shift of prediction markets from niche products toward institutional use for hedging regulatory exposure.
Summary
Galaxy Digital (GLXY) on Tuesday announced the launch of institutional over-the-counter prediction-markets trading through its Global Markets trading desk. The offering brings block-size, principal-counterparty execution to event contracts listed on Kalshi and Polymarket, giving institutional clients a way to trade these outcomes away from public order books.
The launch was anchored by a $10 million trade with Arca, a crypto-native hedge fund. According to the publisher's reporting, the swap allows Arca to hedge its regulatory exposure to the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act, with the position tied to the outcome of the legislation on Kalshi. CoinDesk reported that Galaxy facilitated the $10 million transaction and said Galaxy can take on the risk of such trades as principal counterparty.
Galaxy said its own research desk currently puts the probability of CLARITY Act passage at 75%, with a signing date estimated for the week of August 3. These are the firm's internal estimates and have not been independently verified.
The transaction illustrates a broader trend, as prediction markets move from niche retail products toward institutional use cases such as hedging policy and regulatory risk.
The launch was anchored by a $10 million trade with Arca, a crypto-native hedge fund. According to the publisher's reporting, the swap allows Arca to hedge its regulatory exposure to the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act, with the position tied to the outcome of the legislation on Kalshi. CoinDesk reported that Galaxy facilitated the $10 million transaction and said Galaxy can take on the risk of such trades as principal counterparty.
Galaxy said its own research desk currently puts the probability of CLARITY Act passage at 75%, with a signing date estimated for the week of August 3. These are the firm's internal estimates and have not been independently verified.
The transaction illustrates a broader trend, as prediction markets move from niche retail products toward institutional use cases such as hedging policy and regulatory risk.
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