Key Takeaways
- • Bitcoin price bottomed in the $65,000–$70,000 range, according to Grayscale Research head Zach Pandl (former Goldman Sachs macro strategist), based on on-chain analysis showing short-term holders returning to breakeven after a 20%+ rally from February lows near $63,000.
- • BTC hit a 3-month high of $78,417 on April 22, 2026, as geopolitical risk eased following President Donald Trump's extension of the US-Iran ceasefire and oil prices declined below $90 per barrel.
- • Realized price for BTC over the past 1–3 months stands near $74,000, indicating reduced sell pressure and a shift in investor sentiment consistent with early-stage bull market conditions; further upside would move recent buyers into positive territory, signaling phase-one bull market initiation.
- • Bitcoin Bull Score Index turned neutral for the first time in the bear market, per CryptoQuant research head Julio Moreno, though he cautioned a similar neutral signal in March 2022 lasted only one week before price resumed decline.
- • Current price action aligns with historical patterns at the onset of prior bull market phases, despite BTC remaining materially below its October 2025 peak.
Summary
Grayscale Research has issued a bullish technical assessment, signaling that Bitcoin has established a durable market bottom in the $65,000–$70,000 range and is entering an early bull market phase. Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale and a former Goldman Sachs macro strategist, based this conclusion on on-chain data analysis showing that recent buyers are now returning to breakeven following a 20%+ rally from February lows around $63,000. The realized price metric—measuring BTC transacted over the past 1–3 months—currently sits near $74,000, a level Pandl interprets as evidence of easing sell pressure and shifting investor sentiment away from forced liquidations.
Bitcoin reached a 3-month high of $78,417 on April 22, 2026, buoyed by a combination of macroeconomic factors: President Trump's extension of the US-Iran ceasefire reduced geopolitical risk premiums, while oil prices declined below $90 per barrel, further stabilizing broader market conditions. Pandl's analysis suggests that if Bitcoin continues to move higher, more recent buyers would transition into positive profit-and-loss territory, which he identifies as a potential indicator of the first phase of an emerging bull market cycle.
Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, corroborated the bullish sentiment by noting that the Bitcoin Bull Score Index has entered neutral territory for the first time since the bear market began. However, Moreno issued a cautionary note: the Bull Score Index entered neutral territory briefly in March 2022, but after approximately one week, Bitcoin price resumed its decline. This historical precedent suggests that while current technical signals appear constructive, confirmation of a sustained bull market will require Bitcoin to hold above key resistance levels and maintain positive momentum over a longer timeframe.
The recent price action—while well below Bitcoin's October 2025 peak—displays characteristics consistent with prior bull market initiations, according to Grayscale Research's analysis. The combination of on-chain buyer recovery, reduced forced selling, and neutral technical signals from major indices suggests a potential shift in market structure, though institutional investors should monitor whether this momentum persists or reverts to the caution evidenced by the March 2022 precedent.
Bitcoin reached a 3-month high of $78,417 on April 22, 2026, buoyed by a combination of macroeconomic factors: President Trump's extension of the US-Iran ceasefire reduced geopolitical risk premiums, while oil prices declined below $90 per barrel, further stabilizing broader market conditions. Pandl's analysis suggests that if Bitcoin continues to move higher, more recent buyers would transition into positive profit-and-loss territory, which he identifies as a potential indicator of the first phase of an emerging bull market cycle.
Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, corroborated the bullish sentiment by noting that the Bitcoin Bull Score Index has entered neutral territory for the first time since the bear market began. However, Moreno issued a cautionary note: the Bull Score Index entered neutral territory briefly in March 2022, but after approximately one week, Bitcoin price resumed its decline. This historical precedent suggests that while current technical signals appear constructive, confirmation of a sustained bull market will require Bitcoin to hold above key resistance levels and maintain positive momentum over a longer timeframe.
The recent price action—while well below Bitcoin's October 2025 peak—displays characteristics consistent with prior bull market initiations, according to Grayscale Research's analysis. The combination of on-chain buyer recovery, reduced forced selling, and neutral technical signals from major indices suggests a potential shift in market structure, though institutional investors should monitor whether this momentum persists or reverts to the caution evidenced by the March 2022 precedent.
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