Key Takeaways
- • Grayscale projects HYPE will generate $3.25–$3.75 in earnings per token in 2027, based on expected $1 billion in annual protocol earnings and circulating supply estimates of 270–310 million tokens by year-end 2027.
- • HYPE trades at 15–18x forward earnings at $54 per token, a valuation multiple Grayscale's head of research Zach Pandl characterizes as inexpensive relative to publicly traded fintech peers including Coinbase, Robinhood, and Circle.
- • Hyperliquid's 2027 earnings growth is supported by crypto trading volume recovery and new revenue from a Coinbase partnership, where Coinbase serves as the network's official USDC treasury deployer, directing a portion of reserve income to the protocol.
- • HYPE supply dynamics hinge on contributor unlock pace, with core contributors currently releasing approximately 550,000 tokens monthly; Grayscale modeled scenarios ranging from current pace to five times that amount.
- • Grayscale applies a traditional equity valuation framework to HYPE despite the token's lack of traditional shares, using earnings-per-token analysis comparable to earnings-per-share metrics used for stock valuations.
Summary
Grayscale Investments' research division has issued a valuation assessment suggesting Hyperliquid's HYPE token remains undervalued relative to comparable fintech equities, despite gains accumulated earlier in 2026. In a research note published through its institutional research platform, Zach Pandl, Grayscale's head of research, applied traditional equity valuation methodologies to the cryptocurrency protocol, arguing that HYPE's real cash flows justify a stock-like earnings-multiple analysis.
The crux of Grayscale's thesis centers on Hyperliquid's projected earnings power. The firm expects the protocol to generate approximately $1 billion in annual earnings by 2027, representing roughly 20% growth from 2025 levels. This earnings growth is underpinned by two primary drivers: anticipated recovery in cryptocurrency trading activity and new revenue streams from Hyperliquid's Aligned Quote Asset version 2 partnership with Coinbase. Under that arrangement, Coinbase serves as the network's official USDC treasury deployer, channeling a portion of reserve income generated by USDC holdings back to the Hyperliquid protocol, creating an additional revenue mechanism that could support HYPE token appreciation.
Grayscale's valuation model produces earnings-per-token estimates of $3.25 to $3.75 for 2027, contingent upon assumptions regarding token supply expansion and contraction. The protocol currently has approximately 270 million HYPE tokens in circulation. Supply dynamics reflect competing pressures: staking emissions and contributor unlocks increase the token count, while fee-funded token burns reduce it. Grayscale projects circulating supply will reach between 270 million and 310 million tokens by end-2026, largely dependent on the velocity of contributor unlock schedules. Core contributors are presently releasing roughly 550,000 HYPE tokens monthly, though Grayscale modeled scenarios extending from that baseline to five times that monthly release rate.
At $54 per token, HYPE trades at approximately 15 to 18 times projected 2027 earnings—a multiple Pandl characterizes as modest when benchmarked against publicly traded fintech companies. This forward P/E multiple positioning suggests the token may retain upside despite its recent rally, provided Grayscale's earnings and supply assumptions materialize. The assessment underscores growing institutional recognition that sufficiently mature cryptocurrency protocols generating measurable cash flows warrant valuation frameworks analogous to traditional financial services equities.
The crux of Grayscale's thesis centers on Hyperliquid's projected earnings power. The firm expects the protocol to generate approximately $1 billion in annual earnings by 2027, representing roughly 20% growth from 2025 levels. This earnings growth is underpinned by two primary drivers: anticipated recovery in cryptocurrency trading activity and new revenue streams from Hyperliquid's Aligned Quote Asset version 2 partnership with Coinbase. Under that arrangement, Coinbase serves as the network's official USDC treasury deployer, channeling a portion of reserve income generated by USDC holdings back to the Hyperliquid protocol, creating an additional revenue mechanism that could support HYPE token appreciation.
Grayscale's valuation model produces earnings-per-token estimates of $3.25 to $3.75 for 2027, contingent upon assumptions regarding token supply expansion and contraction. The protocol currently has approximately 270 million HYPE tokens in circulation. Supply dynamics reflect competing pressures: staking emissions and contributor unlocks increase the token count, while fee-funded token burns reduce it. Grayscale projects circulating supply will reach between 270 million and 310 million tokens by end-2026, largely dependent on the velocity of contributor unlock schedules. Core contributors are presently releasing roughly 550,000 HYPE tokens monthly, though Grayscale modeled scenarios extending from that baseline to five times that monthly release rate.
At $54 per token, HYPE trades at approximately 15 to 18 times projected 2027 earnings—a multiple Pandl characterizes as modest when benchmarked against publicly traded fintech companies. This forward P/E multiple positioning suggests the token may retain upside despite its recent rally, provided Grayscale's earnings and supply assumptions materialize. The assessment underscores growing institutional recognition that sufficiently mature cryptocurrency protocols generating measurable cash flows warrant valuation frameworks analogous to traditional financial services equities.
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