Key Takeaways
- • Grayscale's research head Zach Pandl projects Hyperliquid (HYPE) could generate approximately $1 billion in protocol earnings by 2027, representing roughly 20% growth from 2025 levels, assuming sustained crypto trading activity recovery.
- • At a $54 reference price, HYPE trades at 15–18x projected 2027 earnings per token ($3.25–$3.75), suggesting potential undervaluation relative to comparable publicly traded fintech stocks using Grayscale's "earnings per token" framework.
- • Grayscale models HYPE circulating supply reaching 270M–310M tokens by end-2027, with core contributors unlocking approximately 550,000 HYPE monthly; supply growth represents a key risk factor to the valuation thesis if unlock acceleration occurs.
- • Protocol revenue growth is anchored to Hyperliquid's Aligned Quote Asset v2 partnership with Coinbase, where Coinbase directs a portion of USDC reserve income to the protocol, creating an additional revenue stream to support token demand.
- • Hyperliquid has already crossed $1 billion in cumulative protocol revenue as of June 30, 2026, with the platform demonstrating strong daily revenue generation and significant trading volume, including $3.1 billion in cumulative volume for $SPCX across nine days during its IPO period.
Summary
Grayscale's research team, led by Zach Pandl, has released a valuation analysis suggesting Hyperliquid's HYPE token remains undervalued relative to publicly traded fintech companies, even following 2026's price appreciation. The analysis applies an "earnings per token" framework—a crypto-native adaptation of traditional earnings-per-share methodology—to assess HYPE's fundamental value against conventional fintech equity multiples.
The cornerstone of Grayscale's bull case rests on projected 2027 protocol earnings of approximately $1 billion, representing approximately 20% year-over-year growth from 2025 levels. This forecast assumes a recovery in cryptocurrency trading activity and additional revenue derived from a stablecoin partnership between Hyperliquid and Coinbase. Under the Aligned Quote Asset v2 arrangement, Coinbase acts as the network's official USDC treasury deployer and directs a portion of USDC reserve income to Hyperliquid's protocol, creating a structural revenue stream independent of trading volumes alone.
On a per-token basis, Grayscale models projected 2027 earnings of $3.25–$3.75 per token, with circulating supply estimated between 270 million and 310 million HYPE tokens by year-end 2027. At a $54 reference price, this translates to a 15–18x earnings multiple—meaningfully below comparable fintech companies' valuations, according to Grayscale's analysis. The valuation gap suggests potential upside, contingent on achieving the protocol's revenue targets and managing token supply growth.
Supply dynamics represent a critical constraint on the thesis. Core contributors are currently unlocking approximately 550,000 HYPE tokens monthly; Grayscale modeled scenarios ranging from the current pace to 5x acceleration. Faster-than-expected token unlocks could pressure price appreciation by expanding circulating supply without proportional earnings growth. Additionally, weaker-than-anticipated protocol revenue—driven by lower-than-expected trading activity or failed partnership execution—poses downside risk to the $1 billion 2027 earnings projection.
Hyperliquid's execution track record supports the near-term revenue outlook. The platform crossed $1 billion in cumulative protocol revenue by June 30, 2026, demonstrating sustained user adoption and trading activity. Recent trading data further validates platform traction: $SPCX generated $3.1 billion in cumulative volume across nine days surrounding its IPO period, with $1.4 billion traded on IPO day alone. These metrics indicate robust protocol utilization and user engagement, foundational elements for sustaining the projected revenue trajectory through 2027.
The cornerstone of Grayscale's bull case rests on projected 2027 protocol earnings of approximately $1 billion, representing approximately 20% year-over-year growth from 2025 levels. This forecast assumes a recovery in cryptocurrency trading activity and additional revenue derived from a stablecoin partnership between Hyperliquid and Coinbase. Under the Aligned Quote Asset v2 arrangement, Coinbase acts as the network's official USDC treasury deployer and directs a portion of USDC reserve income to Hyperliquid's protocol, creating a structural revenue stream independent of trading volumes alone.
On a per-token basis, Grayscale models projected 2027 earnings of $3.25–$3.75 per token, with circulating supply estimated between 270 million and 310 million HYPE tokens by year-end 2027. At a $54 reference price, this translates to a 15–18x earnings multiple—meaningfully below comparable fintech companies' valuations, according to Grayscale's analysis. The valuation gap suggests potential upside, contingent on achieving the protocol's revenue targets and managing token supply growth.
Supply dynamics represent a critical constraint on the thesis. Core contributors are currently unlocking approximately 550,000 HYPE tokens monthly; Grayscale modeled scenarios ranging from the current pace to 5x acceleration. Faster-than-expected token unlocks could pressure price appreciation by expanding circulating supply without proportional earnings growth. Additionally, weaker-than-anticipated protocol revenue—driven by lower-than-expected trading activity or failed partnership execution—poses downside risk to the $1 billion 2027 earnings projection.
Hyperliquid's execution track record supports the near-term revenue outlook. The platform crossed $1 billion in cumulative protocol revenue by June 30, 2026, demonstrating sustained user adoption and trading activity. Recent trading data further validates platform traction: $SPCX generated $3.1 billion in cumulative volume across nine days surrounding its IPO period, with $1.4 billion traded on IPO day alone. These metrics indicate robust protocol utilization and user engagement, foundational elements for sustaining the projected revenue trajectory through 2027.
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