Key Takeaways
- • Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $284 million in net outflows on November 12, the sixth consecutive day of withdrawals, with IBIT accounting for $204 million of the redemptions.
- • IBIT has lost more than $2.2 billion over ten straight outflow sessions since October 30 and accounts for 94% of November's ETF outflows.
- • IBIT closed at $39.06 on November 13, down 16.2% for the month and 21.3% year to date, and sits below its $41.17 200-day moving average with RSI at 28.35.
- • Bitcoin fell below $69,000 on November 13, driven by a hawkish shift in Fed expectations, a 103-plus dollar index, and 5.16% 10-year Treasury yields.
- • Total net assets across the 12 spot Bitcoin funds fell to $89.556 billion, and year-to-date ETF flows have turned negative for the first time since the funds launched in January 2024.
Summary
The iShares Bitcoin Trust (NASDAQ: IBIT) traded at $39.06 on Friday, November 13, 2026, down 3.2% on the day and 8.9% for the week, according to the primary source. The decline followed a 4.5% drop on Thursday, when the fund closed below its $41.17 200-day simple moving average. The 52-week range runs from $32.84, set on June 25, 2026, to $59.56 set on November 12, 2025.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $284 million of net outflows on November 12, the sixth consecutive day of withdrawals. IBIT led with $204 million of redemptions, its tenth straight outflow session. Total net assets across the 12 spot funds fell to $89.556 billion, down $4.14 billion in one day, reflecting both outflows and Bitcoin's price decline. Cumulative net inflows since launch fell to $54.819 billion. Year-to-date flows for the category have turned negative, with the funds down roughly $1.42 billion to $1.47 billion in 2026 net flows depending on the data set, compared with $25.2 billion of inflows at the same point in 2025.
IBIT's outflows have been highly concentrated. The fund shed roughly $2 billion across the first nine sessions of the outflow streak and more than $2.2 billion through November 12, versus $932 million of inflows in October. IBIT accounted for 94% of November's category outflows, far above its 62.9% share of spot Bitcoin ETF assets. Fidelity's FBTC posted zero net flows on November 11 and 12, while Grayscale's GBTC continued to lose assets slowly. Morgan Stanley's MSBT was the lone consistent buyer, with $837 million in cumulative inflows.
Bitcoin's decline has come in steps. It closed at $80,443 on November 4, fell below $78,000 after a Nasdaq chip selloff on November 5 triggered more than $1 billion in crypto liquidations, and closed at $74,740 on November 8. Bitcoin dropped 6.6% in 24 hours on Friday and traded below $69,000, which the primary source equates to an IBIT price near $39.06. Bitcoin trades 45% below its all-time high of $126,173 set in October 2025.
The macro backdrop has been the primary driver. Futures markets price a 91% probability of a quarter-point Federal Reserve hike at the December 8 and 9 meeting, according to the source. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.16% on Friday, and the dollar index reached 103.30, its highest in 19 months. Producer prices are running at 6.5% year over year. The source also links IBIT outflows to unwinding of basis trades, in which hedge funds hold the ETF and short Bitcoin futures; as futures premiums shrink, those trades become less profitable and are closed by selling the ETF.
The primary source frames $43 as the upside target for IBIT, a 10.1% gain that would require Bitcoin to recover to roughly $76,000 and reclaim the 200-day average. It cautions that the target requires macro pressure and ETF selling to ease. A day of near-zero or positive IBIT flows would signal that concentrated selling has run its course.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $284 million of net outflows on November 12, the sixth consecutive day of withdrawals. IBIT led with $204 million of redemptions, its tenth straight outflow session. Total net assets across the 12 spot funds fell to $89.556 billion, down $4.14 billion in one day, reflecting both outflows and Bitcoin's price decline. Cumulative net inflows since launch fell to $54.819 billion. Year-to-date flows for the category have turned negative, with the funds down roughly $1.42 billion to $1.47 billion in 2026 net flows depending on the data set, compared with $25.2 billion of inflows at the same point in 2025.
IBIT's outflows have been highly concentrated. The fund shed roughly $2 billion across the first nine sessions of the outflow streak and more than $2.2 billion through November 12, versus $932 million of inflows in October. IBIT accounted for 94% of November's category outflows, far above its 62.9% share of spot Bitcoin ETF assets. Fidelity's FBTC posted zero net flows on November 11 and 12, while Grayscale's GBTC continued to lose assets slowly. Morgan Stanley's MSBT was the lone consistent buyer, with $837 million in cumulative inflows.
Bitcoin's decline has come in steps. It closed at $80,443 on November 4, fell below $78,000 after a Nasdaq chip selloff on November 5 triggered more than $1 billion in crypto liquidations, and closed at $74,740 on November 8. Bitcoin dropped 6.6% in 24 hours on Friday and traded below $69,000, which the primary source equates to an IBIT price near $39.06. Bitcoin trades 45% below its all-time high of $126,173 set in October 2025.
The macro backdrop has been the primary driver. Futures markets price a 91% probability of a quarter-point Federal Reserve hike at the December 8 and 9 meeting, according to the source. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.16% on Friday, and the dollar index reached 103.30, its highest in 19 months. Producer prices are running at 6.5% year over year. The source also links IBIT outflows to unwinding of basis trades, in which hedge funds hold the ETF and short Bitcoin futures; as futures premiums shrink, those trades become less profitable and are closed by selling the ETF.
The primary source frames $43 as the upside target for IBIT, a 10.1% gain that would require Bitcoin to recover to roughly $76,000 and reclaim the 200-day average. It cautions that the target requires macro pressure and ETF selling to ease. A day of near-zero or positive IBIT flows would signal that concentrated selling has run its course.
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