Key Takeaways
- • The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) passed the House on July 17, 2025, with a bipartisan 294–134 majority and was reported out of the Senate Banking Committee on June 1, 2026, establishing a comprehensive federal framework for digital asset regulation split between the SEC and CFTC.
- • The legislation prohibits Federal Reserve banks from offering central bank digital currency (CBDC) products directly to individuals and restricts monetary policy applications of CBDCs, addressing surveillance concerns alongside market structure reforms.
- • Polymarket assigns a 67% probability to the CLARITY Act passing in 2026; Senate timing remains fluid as the bill advances beyond committee with SEC Chair Paul Atkins backing market structure legislation.
- • XRP trading at $1.34 as of the story date (down 63% from its July 2025 peak of $3.65) with institutional investors monitoring Senate passage; Standard Chartered projects $4–$8 billion in potential XRP ETF inflows if the bill becomes law.
- • Grayscale and other institutional players signal that crypto regulation is advancing regardless of CLARITY Act outcome, though the bill represents the most comprehensive federal digital asset framework in U.S. legislative history.
Summary
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R. 3633), introduced in the 119th Congress, represents the broadest federal regulatory framework for digital assets proposed to date. The bill passed the House on July 17, 2025, with strong bipartisan support—294 Republicans and Democrats combined voting in favor against 134 opposed. On June 1, 2026, the bill was reported by the Senate Banking Committee (reported by Mr. Scott of South Carolina with amendments), placing it on the Senate calendar as it moves toward floor consideration.
The legislation establishes a bifurcated regulatory structure: the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission will share oversight of digital asset offerings and trading. Beyond market structure provisions, the CLARITY Act includes provisions restricting Federal Reserve banks from offering central bank digital currency products directly to individuals and prohibiting the use of CBDCs for monetary policy purposes. These anti-CBDC measures address institutional and privacy concerns that have become prominent in recent legislative debates.
As of September 2026, market participants assess passage probability at 67%, according to prediction market Polymarket. SEC Chair Paul Atkins has publicly backed market structure legislation, signaling potential executive branch support for passage. However, Senate timing remains uncertain as the bill completes its committee phase. The legislation has generated significant market attention, particularly regarding XRP, which experienced substantial volatility linked to regulatory clarity expectations. XRP traded at $1.34 as of mid-September 2026, representing a 63% decline from its July 2025 peak of $3.65. Standard Chartered analysts project that CLARITY Act passage could trigger $4–$8 billion in incremental XRP ETF inflows, reflecting institutional expectations around regulatory clarity benefits.
Institutional investors including Grayscale have indicated that digital asset regulation is advancing through multiple pathways. Even if the CLARITY Act encounters obstacles in the Senate, regulatory progression at the federal level continues through agency rulemaking and alternative legislative channels. The bill's survival through committee and its bipartisan genesis suggest meaningful momentum, though final passage remains contingent on Senate floor scheduling and procedural dynamics.
The legislation establishes a bifurcated regulatory structure: the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission will share oversight of digital asset offerings and trading. Beyond market structure provisions, the CLARITY Act includes provisions restricting Federal Reserve banks from offering central bank digital currency products directly to individuals and prohibiting the use of CBDCs for monetary policy purposes. These anti-CBDC measures address institutional and privacy concerns that have become prominent in recent legislative debates.
As of September 2026, market participants assess passage probability at 67%, according to prediction market Polymarket. SEC Chair Paul Atkins has publicly backed market structure legislation, signaling potential executive branch support for passage. However, Senate timing remains uncertain as the bill completes its committee phase. The legislation has generated significant market attention, particularly regarding XRP, which experienced substantial volatility linked to regulatory clarity expectations. XRP traded at $1.34 as of mid-September 2026, representing a 63% decline from its July 2025 peak of $3.65. Standard Chartered analysts project that CLARITY Act passage could trigger $4–$8 billion in incremental XRP ETF inflows, reflecting institutional expectations around regulatory clarity benefits.
Institutional investors including Grayscale have indicated that digital asset regulation is advancing through multiple pathways. Even if the CLARITY Act encounters obstacles in the Senate, regulatory progression at the federal level continues through agency rulemaking and alternative legislative channels. The bill's survival through committee and its bipartisan genesis suggest meaningful momentum, though final passage remains contingent on Senate floor scheduling and procedural dynamics.
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