Key Takeaways
- • Oppenheimer became the first global brokerage to initiate coverage of SpaceX, issuing an "outperform" rating with a $190 price target, implying 41% upside to the IPO price of $135 and a post-IPO valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion.
- • SpaceX targets a record $75 billion IPO with trading commencing June 12, 2026, representing one of the largest public market debuts in history and a significant capital raise for the aerospace and satellite communications company.
- • Oppenheimer upgraded its 2035 global space revenue forecast to $800 billion from $500 billion and projects Starlink will capture 15 million U.S. broadband subscribers, signaling confidence in SpaceX's satellite internet expansion and long-term market penetration.
- • New Street Research also initiated coverage with a $165 price target, providing additional Wall Street validation, though Oppenheimer's $190 target represents the most bullish entry valuation among initial analyst assessments.
- • SpaceX shares will face a 366-day lockup period post-IPO, restricting insider and early shareholder liquidity while retail investors will primarily access shares through secondary market trading rather than direct IPO participation.
Summary
Oppenheimer has established itself as the first major global brokerage to initiate research coverage on SpaceX ahead of the company's landmark $75 billion initial public offering, scheduled to commence trading on June 12, 2026. The firm's coverage launch positions it at the forefront of institutional analyst engagement with what is shaping up to be one of the largest technology IPOs on record, reflecting significant investor appetite for exposure to aerospace, satellite communications, and space infrastructure assets.
The brokerage's bullish stance is underpinned by a $190 price target against an IPO price of $135 per share, representing potential upside of approximately 41% at the public market debut. This valuation implies a post-IPO market capitalization near $1.75 trillion, establishing SpaceX as one of the most valuable publicly traded companies globally. Oppenheimer's "outperform" rating reflects conviction that the market will recognize SpaceX's competitive advantages and growth potential upon public disclosure of detailed financial metrics and forward guidance.
A critical dimension of Oppenheimer's investment thesis centers on the long-term revenue potential within the global space sector. The firm has elevated its 2035 space industry revenue forecast to $800 billion from $500 billion, a substantial upward revision that underscores confidence in accelerating commercial space adoption. Within this framework, Oppenheimer projects that SpaceX's Starlink satellite internet division will achieve 15 million U.S. broadband subscribers, representing meaningful penetration of the domestic connectivity market and generating recurring high-margin revenue streams beyond launch services.
Concurrent with Oppenheimer's initiation, New Street Research has also commenced coverage with a $165 price target, validating market interest among multiple research platforms while offering a more conservative entry valuation than Oppenheimer's assessment. The divergence between analyst targets reflects genuine uncertainty regarding long-term profitability and market share assumptions, typical for newly public space-sector companies.
A structural constraint worth noting for institutional investors involves the 366-day post-IPO lockup period restricting share sales by early investors and insiders. This extended lockup window will concentrate initial secondary market liquidity among new public market participants, while most retail investors will gain access solely through open market purchases rather than IPO allocation channels.
The brokerage's bullish stance is underpinned by a $190 price target against an IPO price of $135 per share, representing potential upside of approximately 41% at the public market debut. This valuation implies a post-IPO market capitalization near $1.75 trillion, establishing SpaceX as one of the most valuable publicly traded companies globally. Oppenheimer's "outperform" rating reflects conviction that the market will recognize SpaceX's competitive advantages and growth potential upon public disclosure of detailed financial metrics and forward guidance.
A critical dimension of Oppenheimer's investment thesis centers on the long-term revenue potential within the global space sector. The firm has elevated its 2035 space industry revenue forecast to $800 billion from $500 billion, a substantial upward revision that underscores confidence in accelerating commercial space adoption. Within this framework, Oppenheimer projects that SpaceX's Starlink satellite internet division will achieve 15 million U.S. broadband subscribers, representing meaningful penetration of the domestic connectivity market and generating recurring high-margin revenue streams beyond launch services.
Concurrent with Oppenheimer's initiation, New Street Research has also commenced coverage with a $165 price target, validating market interest among multiple research platforms while offering a more conservative entry valuation than Oppenheimer's assessment. The divergence between analyst targets reflects genuine uncertainty regarding long-term profitability and market share assumptions, typical for newly public space-sector companies.
A structural constraint worth noting for institutional investors involves the 366-day post-IPO lockup period restricting share sales by early investors and insiders. This extended lockup window will concentrate initial secondary market liquidity among new public market participants, while most retail investors will gain access solely through open market purchases rather than IPO allocation channels.
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