Key Takeaways
- • Galaxy Digital launched its first institutional OTC prediction markets offering, positioning prediction markets as a core infrastructure for sophisticated investors expressing macro views and event-driven strategies.
- • Prediction markets generated over $44 billion in trading volume during 2025, predominantly concentrated on Polymarket and Kalshi, marking a transition from niche to mainstream asset class adoption.
- • Galaxy's OTC offering covers non-sports event contracts including economic, political, and geopolitical instruments, with plans to expand across additional platforms, enabling institutions to access liquidity and risk management tools previously unavailable at scale.
- • Zane Glauber, Galaxy's global head of distribution, characterized the velocity of prediction market growth as "quite remarkable," highlighting institutional demand for event-driven markets as complements to traditional equities and commodities hedging strategies.
- • OTC transactions between Galaxy and counterparties involve direct credit risk exchange and trading of economic substitutes on non-fungible contracts, differentiating institutional-grade offerings from retail trading on public platforms.
Summary
Prediction markets have transitioned from a speculative niche to institutional infrastructure, with Galaxy Digital's launch of an OTC prediction markets offering on June 10, 2026, signaling the maturation of the asset class. The global markets trading desk initiative reflects growing institutional appetite for event-driven instruments as macroeconomic hedging tools, complementing traditional portfolio strategies.
The market scale underscores this transition. Galaxy research documented $44 billion in prediction market trading volume during 2025, with Polymarket and Kalshi dominating platform activity. This growth trajectory prompted Galaxy to develop institutional-grade offerings that address liquidity constraints and risk management gaps in existing retail-focused platforms. Zane Glauber, Galaxy's global head of distribution, stated during a June 10 webinar that "prediction markets have gone from niche to mainstream, and the velocity of growth has been quite remarkable."
Galaxy's OTC model introduces structural differentiation from public platform trading. The offering operates on bilateral credit arrangements between Galaxy and institutional counterparties, enabling trades in economic substitutes for shares on contracts markets that remain non-fungible with public exchange listings. This structure allows institutions to execute larger positions, manage counterparty credit dynamics, and access instruments referencing non-sports event contracts across economic, political, and geopolitical categories on Kalshi and Polymarket, with expansion plans for additional platforms.
Jason Urban, Galaxy's global co-head of digital assets, emphasized the strategic positioning of event-driven markets as core infrastructure for sophisticated investors implementing macro strategies. The firm positioned prediction markets as complementary hedging tools alongside equities, commodities, and other traditional risk management instruments, reflecting institutional conviction that event-driven markets are becoming essential to modern portfolio construction and macroeconomic expression.
The market scale underscores this transition. Galaxy research documented $44 billion in prediction market trading volume during 2025, with Polymarket and Kalshi dominating platform activity. This growth trajectory prompted Galaxy to develop institutional-grade offerings that address liquidity constraints and risk management gaps in existing retail-focused platforms. Zane Glauber, Galaxy's global head of distribution, stated during a June 10 webinar that "prediction markets have gone from niche to mainstream, and the velocity of growth has been quite remarkable."
Galaxy's OTC model introduces structural differentiation from public platform trading. The offering operates on bilateral credit arrangements between Galaxy and institutional counterparties, enabling trades in economic substitutes for shares on contracts markets that remain non-fungible with public exchange listings. This structure allows institutions to execute larger positions, manage counterparty credit dynamics, and access instruments referencing non-sports event contracts across economic, political, and geopolitical categories on Kalshi and Polymarket, with expansion plans for additional platforms.
Jason Urban, Galaxy's global co-head of digital assets, emphasized the strategic positioning of event-driven markets as core infrastructure for sophisticated investors implementing macro strategies. The firm positioned prediction markets as complementary hedging tools alongside equities, commodities, and other traditional risk management instruments, reflecting institutional conviction that event-driven markets are becoming essential to modern portfolio construction and macroeconomic expression.
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