Key Takeaways
- • U.S. chipmakers have lost roughly 20% over a two-week period, and the NASDAQ-100 recorded its worst weekly performance since the April 2025 tariff turmoil, according to data shared with Finbold by crypto analytics firm Block Scholes on October 21.
- • The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), which measures expected S&P 500 volatility, reached its highest level since the Federal Reserve's July meeting, signaling rising equity-market anxiety.
- • Bitcoin has remained resilient, consolidating around $80,000-$84,000, and its seven-day implied volatility rose only from just below 30% to about 33% over the weekend.
- • Bitcoin's implied volatility is now less than twice the S&P 500's VIX level, versus a typical ratio closer to three times since 2021, suggesting BTC's expected volatility relative to equities has declined.
- • Ethereum implied volatility rose nearly 10 percentage points, and the seven-day ETH put-call skew reached an eight-volatility-point premium for puts over calls, indicating crypto traders are increasingly seeking downside protection.
Summary
Stock market investors are now significantly less confident than their cryptocurrency counterparts, as weakening artificial intelligence (AI) sentiment weighs on risk assets, according to data shared with Finbold on October 21 by crypto analytics firm Block Scholes. U.S. chipmakers have lost roughly 20% over a two-week period, while the NASDAQ-100 recorded its worst weekly performance since the tariff turmoil in April 2025.
The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), which measures expected volatility in the S&P 500, reached its highest level since the Federal Reserve's meeting in July. By contrast, Bitcoin (BTC) has remained resilient, consolidating around $80,000-$84,000 despite historically high volatility for this time of year. Thahbib Rahman, research analyst at Block Scholes, noted that seasonal patterns have shown a summer lull in Bitcoin volatility that has tended to break in the fourth quarter, with volatility picking up in each of the last five years, usually by early November.
Options markets underscore the divergence. Bitcoin's seven-day implied volatility edged up from just below 30% to around 33% over the weekend, while Ethereum's implied volatility rose by nearly 10 percentage points. Bitcoin's implied volatility is now less than twice that of the S&P 500, whereas the ratio has typically been closer to three times since 2021, suggesting BTC's expected volatility relative to equities has declined. Rahman cautioned that significant upcoming events, including the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, ongoing macro and geopolitical tensions, and FOMC meetings in late October and December, could lift implied volatility, though options markets are not yet pricing that in.
Crypto traders are not entirely complacent. The seven-day put-call skew for ETH reached an eight-volatility-point premium for puts over calls over the weekend, indicating growing demand for downside protection. Finbold notes this suggests that while Bitcoin has weathered turbulence better than many traditional risk assets, traders remain alert and may be anticipating a sell-off. The key open question is whether rising equity-market anxiety, driven by geopolitical uncertainty and AI risks, develops into outright panic, and whether crypto can sustain its relative resilience if conditions deteriorate further.
The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), which measures expected volatility in the S&P 500, reached its highest level since the Federal Reserve's meeting in July. By contrast, Bitcoin (BTC) has remained resilient, consolidating around $80,000-$84,000 despite historically high volatility for this time of year. Thahbib Rahman, research analyst at Block Scholes, noted that seasonal patterns have shown a summer lull in Bitcoin volatility that has tended to break in the fourth quarter, with volatility picking up in each of the last five years, usually by early November.
Options markets underscore the divergence. Bitcoin's seven-day implied volatility edged up from just below 30% to around 33% over the weekend, while Ethereum's implied volatility rose by nearly 10 percentage points. Bitcoin's implied volatility is now less than twice that of the S&P 500, whereas the ratio has typically been closer to three times since 2021, suggesting BTC's expected volatility relative to equities has declined. Rahman cautioned that significant upcoming events, including the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, ongoing macro and geopolitical tensions, and FOMC meetings in late October and December, could lift implied volatility, though options markets are not yet pricing that in.
Crypto traders are not entirely complacent. The seven-day put-call skew for ETH reached an eight-volatility-point premium for puts over calls over the weekend, indicating growing demand for downside protection. Finbold notes this suggests that while Bitcoin has weathered turbulence better than many traditional risk assets, traders remain alert and may be anticipating a sell-off. The key open question is whether rising equity-market anxiety, driven by geopolitical uncertainty and AI risks, develops into outright panic, and whether crypto can sustain its relative resilience if conditions deteriorate further.
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