Key Takeaways
- • Crypto stocks have declined approximately 60% from 2025 peaks, with Bernstein analysts identifying a cyclical bottom approaching amid weak first-quarter earnings expectations driven by geopolitical tensions and temporary sentiment weakness.
- • Bernstein maintains Outperform ratings on three major crypto equities: Coinbase trading at 12x projected 2027 earnings, Robinhood at 18x earnings with only ~20% revenue exposure to crypto, and Figure at 25x estimated 2027 EBITDA with $1+ billion in monthly loan originations as of March 2026.
- • Bitcoin breached its 100-week simple moving average support level (held since November) at $85,000 in late January, establishing a potential path lower toward $75,000, with recovery contingent on reclaiming $95,000 resistance.
- • Bernstein projects Coinbase will deliver approximately 23% earnings-per-share growth in 2026 driven by expansion in stablecoins, derivatives, and prediction markets; Robinhood expects ~30% revenue growth (2025-2027) supported by prediction market activity and crypto trading recovery in H2 2026.
- • The "crypto honeymoon" cooling reflects profit-taking by major holders, elevated interest rate concerns, and geopolitical risk factors, creating valuation compression across the sector despite fundamental growth catalysts in tokenization and blockchain infrastructure.
Summary
The cryptocurrency sector faces a near-term earnings squeeze in the first quarter of 2026, according to CoinDesk reporting and corroborated by major Wall Street research. Analysts describe the current environment as the end of the "crypto honeymoon"—a period of mainstream enthusiasm and elevated valuations—driven by a combination of macroeconomic headwinds, geopolitical tension, and profit-taking by large holders. Bernstein Research has identified this downturn as creating an attractive entry point for institutional investors, with crypto-related equities trading at substantial discounts to their 2025 peaks.
According to Bernstein analysts, crypto stocks are trading approximately 60% below their 2025 highs, a significant markdown that the firm characterizes as deeply discounted valuations. The research note specifically highlights three major publicly traded crypto-exposed companies: Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) at 12x projected 2027 earnings, Robinhood (NASDAQ: HOOD) at 18x earnings, and Figure (NASDAQ: FIGR) at 25x estimated 2027 EBITDA. Bernstein maintains Outperform ratings on all three, believing the group is approaching a cyclical bottom as weak Q1 earnings are priced in. Notably, both Robinhood and Figure appear structurally insulated from near-term crypto volatility—crypto represents only approximately 20% of Robinhood's total revenues, while Figure operates as a pure blockchain tokenization business with $1+ billion in monthly loan originations as of March 2026.
The technical backdrop for Bitcoin has deteriorated in recent weeks, with the asset breaking through its 100-week simple moving average support level near $85,000 in late January 2026, a level that had consistently acted as a floor since November. This breakdown established $75,000 as the next critical support level, with further downside potentially extending to the 200-week average at $58,000. Recovery would require Bitcoin to reclaim $95,000, a threshold where sellers dominated throughout early 2026.
Looking forward, Bernstein projects material recovery potential. Coinbase is forecast to deliver approximately 23% earnings-per-share growth in 2026, supported by expansion in stablecoins, derivatives trading, and prediction markets. Robinhood is expected to achieve roughly 30% revenue growth between 2025 and 2027, driven by prediction market adoption, a recovery in crypto trading volumes during the second half of 2026, and continued expansion in non-trading revenue streams. Figure is anticipated to generate approximately $12.8 billion in loan volumes in 2026, demonstrating that underlying crypto infrastructure adoption continues despite near-term sentiment weakness and macro headwinds.
According to Bernstein analysts, crypto stocks are trading approximately 60% below their 2025 highs, a significant markdown that the firm characterizes as deeply discounted valuations. The research note specifically highlights three major publicly traded crypto-exposed companies: Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) at 12x projected 2027 earnings, Robinhood (NASDAQ: HOOD) at 18x earnings, and Figure (NASDAQ: FIGR) at 25x estimated 2027 EBITDA. Bernstein maintains Outperform ratings on all three, believing the group is approaching a cyclical bottom as weak Q1 earnings are priced in. Notably, both Robinhood and Figure appear structurally insulated from near-term crypto volatility—crypto represents only approximately 20% of Robinhood's total revenues, while Figure operates as a pure blockchain tokenization business with $1+ billion in monthly loan originations as of March 2026.
The technical backdrop for Bitcoin has deteriorated in recent weeks, with the asset breaking through its 100-week simple moving average support level near $85,000 in late January 2026, a level that had consistently acted as a floor since November. This breakdown established $75,000 as the next critical support level, with further downside potentially extending to the 200-week average at $58,000. Recovery would require Bitcoin to reclaim $95,000, a threshold where sellers dominated throughout early 2026.
Looking forward, Bernstein projects material recovery potential. Coinbase is forecast to deliver approximately 23% earnings-per-share growth in 2026, supported by expansion in stablecoins, derivatives trading, and prediction markets. Robinhood is expected to achieve roughly 30% revenue growth between 2025 and 2027, driven by prediction market adoption, a recovery in crypto trading volumes during the second half of 2026, and continued expansion in non-trading revenue streams. Figure is anticipated to generate approximately $12.8 billion in loan volumes in 2026, demonstrating that underlying crypto infrastructure adoption continues despite near-term sentiment weakness and macro headwinds.
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