Key Takeaways
- • Fidelity Digital Assets researchers Max Wadington and Matt Hogan argued on a Covering Crypto livestream that crypto price alone is not the most useful signal of a token's potential, with 93% of live poll respondents agreeing.
- • Fidelity's quarterly Signals Report pairs market-price-based metrics for near-term timing with longer-term on-chain fundamental analysis, and the team was preparing its fourth quarter 2026 edition.
- • Bitcoin dominance, described as around 60% and rolling over from lows, is the key indicator the analysts cited for risk-on versus risk-off regimes, with historical peaks in the cycle seeing dominance fall as low as 40%.
- • The analysts stopped short of declaring a bull market, saying signals support both optimism and caution, and noted that bitcoin's dominance has persisted for over a decade.
Summary
In a Covering Crypto livestream hosted by Jim Armstrong, Fidelity Digital Assets researchers Max Wadington, Senior Research Analyst, and Matt Hogan, Digital Assets Research Analyst, discussed what drives crypto markets and how investors can interpret market signals. Fidelity Digital Assets, a subsidiary of Fidelity Investments, focuses on custody and trading of digital assets. A live poll found that 93% of respondents rejected the statement that a cryptocurrency's price is the most useful signal of its potential.
Hogan said price remains useful for gauging sentiment and momentum but is a reflection of available information rather than a complete picture. He argued that combining price with on-chain fundamentals, which measure network usage and economic activity on public blockchains, provides a better view of network health. Asked whether the crypto bull market has started, both analysts said it is impossible to know for certain, though some signals point to optimism while others suggest tempering expectations.
Wadington described the Signals Report structure, which begins with a market overview of historical and recent price performance and then, for each asset, separates market-price metrics that inform shorter-term timing from fundamental analysis that the team updates quarterly. Armstrong noted the team was finishing its fourth quarter 2026 report in early October.
On bitcoin dominance, Wadington said bitcoin's market capitalization relative to the broader digital asset market indicates whether investors are in risk-on or risk-off mode. Rising dominance suggests capital is concentrating in bitcoin, while falling dominance suggests investors are moving further out the risk curve. Hogan said dominance has historically fallen toward 40% near market peaks, while it currently remains around 60%. Wadington noted bitcoin's dominance has persisted for decades and that bitcoin has emerged from its lows of the past year, which he cited as one data point in the bull-market debate. The analysts also described the asset performance chart as reflecting a bear-market or winter-like environment and flagged rising competition for capital as a theme to watch.
Hogan said price remains useful for gauging sentiment and momentum but is a reflection of available information rather than a complete picture. He argued that combining price with on-chain fundamentals, which measure network usage and economic activity on public blockchains, provides a better view of network health. Asked whether the crypto bull market has started, both analysts said it is impossible to know for certain, though some signals point to optimism while others suggest tempering expectations.
Wadington described the Signals Report structure, which begins with a market overview of historical and recent price performance and then, for each asset, separates market-price metrics that inform shorter-term timing from fundamental analysis that the team updates quarterly. Armstrong noted the team was finishing its fourth quarter 2026 report in early October.
On bitcoin dominance, Wadington said bitcoin's market capitalization relative to the broader digital asset market indicates whether investors are in risk-on or risk-off mode. Rising dominance suggests capital is concentrating in bitcoin, while falling dominance suggests investors are moving further out the risk curve. Hogan said dominance has historically fallen toward 40% near market peaks, while it currently remains around 60%. Wadington noted bitcoin's dominance has persisted for decades and that bitcoin has emerged from its lows of the past year, which he cited as one data point in the bull-market debate. The analysts also described the asset performance chart as reflecting a bear-market or winter-like environment and flagged rising competition for capital as a theme to watch.
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