Key Takeaways
- • BloFin CEO Matt Hu argues Bitcoin's future bear-market crashes could be less severe, citing ETF and corporate treasury holders with longer investment horizons; BloFin Research puts the current bear-market decline at 53% versus roughly 77%–85% in prior cycles.
- • US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $635.6 million in net outflows on October 22, after three sessions that drew more than $1 billion, with Bitcoin trading below $80,000.
- • Glassnode estimates average acquisition costs near $81,500 for ETF investors and $80,200 for treasury companies, meaning sustained weakness below those levels would leave both groups at a loss on average.
- • Higher yields are the main obstacle: the US 10-year Treasury yield ended October 23 near 5%, Brent crude topped $116 a barrel, and inflation-protected 10-year yields were around 2.6%.
- • Hu expects a structural change in altcoin markets, with tokenized stocks and real-world assets competing for speculative capital and the traditional altseason pattern at risk.
Summary
Bitcoin is trading around $80,000 as ETF demand swings and rising oil prices complicate the interest rate outlook. In an interview with BeInCrypto at TOKEN2049 in Singapore, BloFin CEO Matt Hu argued that Bitcoin's boom-and-bust cycles may become less severe because the investor base has shifted toward ETFs and corporate treasuries, whose holders have longer investment horizons and may be less prone to panic selling.
Hu cited BloFin Research estimates that US spot Bitcoin ETFs held roughly 1.3 million BTC, broadly unchanged since January, despite daily inflow and outflow headlines. The research found the latest bear-market decline reached 53%, compared with approximately 77%–85% in previous cycles, though that comparison assumes June marks the market bottom. The thesis faces an immediate test: US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $635.6 million in net outflows on October 22, after three sessions that attracted more than $1 billion. Glassnode estimates average acquisition costs of about $81,500 for ETF investors and $80,200 for Bitcoin treasury companies, so sustained weakness below those levels would put both groups at a loss. Hu said that a sustained decline in ETF holdings, forced selling by treasury companies, or a shrinking long-term holder base, as measured by on-chain metrics, would invalidate his view. Glassnode identifies 85,000–87,500 as a resistance area, while analysts warn that losing the 80,000–82,000 support zone could expose Bitcoin to a decline toward 73,000–75,000.
Hu sees government debt as a potential long-term catalyst, but current conditions work against it. The US 10-year Treasury yield ended October 23 near 5% and Brent crude climbed above $116 a barrel, keeping inflation elevated and limiting the Federal Reserve's room to ease. Inflation-protected 10-year US government bonds yielded around 2.6%, making non-yielding Bitcoin less attractive. Hu argued that rising borrowing costs could eventually push policymakers toward financial repression, keeping rates below inflation or suppressing yields through bond purchases, which would erode bondholders' real returns and could favor assets with limited supply. Traders are focused on the Federal Reserve's October 28 policy decision. Coinbase estimates ETFs have attracted approximately $6.4 billion in net Bitcoin investment since August, compared with $1.5 billion purchased by corporate treasuries.
On altcoins, Hu said the market faces a structural change. Tokenized stocks and other real-world assets now offer alternatives that could draw speculative capital that previously flowed into smaller tokens, and companies with strong earnings and cash flow may attract that capital instead. CoinGecko's third-quarter report showed spot trading volumes fell 14.2% while perpetual futures open interest rose 40.6%, suggesting leverage is growing faster than underlying activity. Hu expects favor to shift toward tokens backed by genuine economic activity and mechanisms that return value to holders, and warned that the traditional altseason pattern may fail if liquidity remains fragmented.
Hu cited BloFin Research estimates that US spot Bitcoin ETFs held roughly 1.3 million BTC, broadly unchanged since January, despite daily inflow and outflow headlines. The research found the latest bear-market decline reached 53%, compared with approximately 77%–85% in previous cycles, though that comparison assumes June marks the market bottom. The thesis faces an immediate test: US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $635.6 million in net outflows on October 22, after three sessions that attracted more than $1 billion. Glassnode estimates average acquisition costs of about $81,500 for ETF investors and $80,200 for Bitcoin treasury companies, so sustained weakness below those levels would put both groups at a loss. Hu said that a sustained decline in ETF holdings, forced selling by treasury companies, or a shrinking long-term holder base, as measured by on-chain metrics, would invalidate his view. Glassnode identifies 85,000–87,500 as a resistance area, while analysts warn that losing the 80,000–82,000 support zone could expose Bitcoin to a decline toward 73,000–75,000.
Hu sees government debt as a potential long-term catalyst, but current conditions work against it. The US 10-year Treasury yield ended October 23 near 5% and Brent crude climbed above $116 a barrel, keeping inflation elevated and limiting the Federal Reserve's room to ease. Inflation-protected 10-year US government bonds yielded around 2.6%, making non-yielding Bitcoin less attractive. Hu argued that rising borrowing costs could eventually push policymakers toward financial repression, keeping rates below inflation or suppressing yields through bond purchases, which would erode bondholders' real returns and could favor assets with limited supply. Traders are focused on the Federal Reserve's October 28 policy decision. Coinbase estimates ETFs have attracted approximately $6.4 billion in net Bitcoin investment since August, compared with $1.5 billion purchased by corporate treasuries.
On altcoins, Hu said the market faces a structural change. Tokenized stocks and other real-world assets now offer alternatives that could draw speculative capital that previously flowed into smaller tokens, and companies with strong earnings and cash flow may attract that capital instead. CoinGecko's third-quarter report showed spot trading volumes fell 14.2% while perpetual futures open interest rose 40.6%, suggesting leverage is growing faster than underlying activity. Hu expects favor to shift toward tokens backed by genuine economic activity and mechanisms that return value to holders, and warned that the traditional altseason pattern may fail if liquidity remains fragmented.
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