Key Takeaways
- • Grayscale Research projects Hyperliquid (HYPE) will generate approximately $1 billion in revenue by 2027, with growth driven by recovering crypto trading volumes and stablecoin reserve income under the Aligned Quote Asset framework.
- • Using an "earnings per token" valuation methodology, Grayscale estimates HYPE trades at a forward multiple of 15x to 18x earnings, positioning it as undervalued relative to publicly traded fintech equities despite 29% decline from its June 2026 all-time high.
- • HYPE token has experienced significant institutional selling pressure in July 2026, with Multicoin Capital and Paradigm unstaking approximately $291 million and spot HYPE funds posting $8.6 million in outflows during the week prior to the Grayscale analysis.
- • Grayscale's valuation assumes circulating token supply will reach 270 million to 310 million tokens by end of 2027, producing projected earnings of $3.25 to $3.75 per token at current trading levels near $54.
- • Key downside risks to the thesis include weaker-than-expected network revenue growth and faster token supply expansion, according to Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl.
Summary
Grayscale Research published a bullish valuation case for Hyperliquid's HYPE token on July 29, 2026, arguing the asset remains undervalued relative to traditional fintech equities despite significant recent price declines. Head of Research Zach Pandl applied an "earnings per token" methodology—adapting the standard earnings-per-share metric used in equity analysis—to value HYPE as a cash-generative asset similar to publicly traded fintech companies.
The analysis assumes Hyperliquid will generate approximately $1 billion in earnings during 2027, representing roughly 20% growth from 2025 levels. Grayscale expects this growth to be driven by two primary drivers: recovering cryptocurrency trading volumes on the Hyperliquid exchange and reserve income derived from stablecoin holdings under Hyperliquid's Aligned Quote Asset framework. Based on projected circulating token supply of 270 million to 310 million tokens by year-end 2027, Pandl calculated earnings per token of $3.25 to $3.75, producing a forward valuation multiple of 15x to 18x at HYPE's current price near $54.
The valuation call arrives during an acute period of pressure for the token. HYPE has declined 29% from its all-time high set in mid-June 2026 and dropped 13% during the preceding month. Institutional investors have been actively reducing exposure: venture capital firms Multicoin Capital and Paradigm unstaked approximately $291 million in HYPE the week before the Grayscale analysis, and spot HYPE exchange-traded funds experienced $8.6 million in outflows, marking their second consecutive week of losses. Assets under management in these funds fell 18% from a July 10 peak, reflecting broader institutional repositioning in the sector.
Grayscale identified two material risks to its 2027 earnings forecast: slower-than-anticipated network revenue growth and accelerated token supply expansion. The firm's relative valuation thesis—that HYPE trades at a discount to fintech peers on a cash flow basis—assumes Hyperliquid can maintain fee-generating trading activity sufficient to justify the projection.
The analysis assumes Hyperliquid will generate approximately $1 billion in earnings during 2027, representing roughly 20% growth from 2025 levels. Grayscale expects this growth to be driven by two primary drivers: recovering cryptocurrency trading volumes on the Hyperliquid exchange and reserve income derived from stablecoin holdings under Hyperliquid's Aligned Quote Asset framework. Based on projected circulating token supply of 270 million to 310 million tokens by year-end 2027, Pandl calculated earnings per token of $3.25 to $3.75, producing a forward valuation multiple of 15x to 18x at HYPE's current price near $54.
The valuation call arrives during an acute period of pressure for the token. HYPE has declined 29% from its all-time high set in mid-June 2026 and dropped 13% during the preceding month. Institutional investors have been actively reducing exposure: venture capital firms Multicoin Capital and Paradigm unstaked approximately $291 million in HYPE the week before the Grayscale analysis, and spot HYPE exchange-traded funds experienced $8.6 million in outflows, marking their second consecutive week of losses. Assets under management in these funds fell 18% from a July 10 peak, reflecting broader institutional repositioning in the sector.
Grayscale identified two material risks to its 2027 earnings forecast: slower-than-anticipated network revenue growth and accelerated token supply expansion. The firm's relative valuation thesis—that HYPE trades at a discount to fintech peers on a cash flow basis—assumes Hyperliquid can maintain fee-generating trading activity sufficient to justify the projection.
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