Key Takeaways
- • William Blair cut Coinbase 2026 and 2027 revenue estimates by 12–13% and slashed EBITDA projections by 34% for both years, citing sector-wide pressure on consensus estimates.
- • Both Coinbase and Circle offer "outsized leverage to a bitcoin recovery," according to William Blair, as key downside risks are now reflected in current valuations following recent equity selloffs.
- • Coinbase stock declined 26% from its Q1 2026 high, which William Blair views as "de-risking" the equity with weak trading volumes now priced into expectations.
- • William Blair expects Coinbase EBITDA to trough in H2 2026 and rebound in 2027, positioning the company for recovery as spot trading volumes potentially stabilize.
- • Bitcoin price remains the critical catalyst for sentiment across crypto-linked equities; BTC was trading near $64,900 as of the report date, struggling to sustain levels above $65,000.
Summary
William Blair maintained a constructive stance on Coinbase (COIN) and Circle (CRCL) despite cutting near-term financial estimates, characterizing recent weakness in both stocks as a buying opportunity for long-term investors. The research firm stated that key risks facing both companies are already reflected in current valuations, and each equity offers "outsized leverage to a bitcoin recovery" as the cryptocurrency market stabilizes. On the report date, Coinbase shares rose over 2% in midday trading while Circle climbed nearly 3%, with retail sentiment on both names trending bullish across social platforms.
William Blair lowered its 2026 revenue estimates for Coinbase by 12% and by 13% for 2027, while cutting EBITDA projections by 34% across both years. The analyst cited consensus estimates across the crypto sector as likely to face continued pressure. However, the firm emphasized that Coinbase's 26% pullback from its Q1 2026 high has largely de-risked the stock, with market weakness in spot trading volumes now priced into expectations. William Blair expects EBITDA to trough in the second half of 2026, with recovery anticipated in 2027 as trading activity potentially stabilizes.
Andrew Jeffery, fintech equity analyst at William Blair, articulated the thesis that investors should maintain exposure to Coinbase as spot trading volumes approach a trough, though the firm stopped short of calling for near-term equity gains. The analyst cautioned that sector-wide consensus estimates will likely face further revision downward. Bitcoin's price action remained a critical variable for sentiment; BTC was struggling to maintain levels above $65,000, trading near $64,900 with modest daily gains of approximately 0.5%.
William Blair's contrarian positioning on both Coinbase and Circle reflects confidence that the recent selloff has created asymmetric risk-reward dynamics for investors with longer time horizons. Circle was highlighted as a high-quality crypto infrastructure play, with growth anchored to USDC stablecoin adoption. The thesis hinges on a bitcoin-led recovery in trading volumes and renewed institutional participation in crypto markets during 2027.
William Blair lowered its 2026 revenue estimates for Coinbase by 12% and by 13% for 2027, while cutting EBITDA projections by 34% across both years. The analyst cited consensus estimates across the crypto sector as likely to face continued pressure. However, the firm emphasized that Coinbase's 26% pullback from its Q1 2026 high has largely de-risked the stock, with market weakness in spot trading volumes now priced into expectations. William Blair expects EBITDA to trough in the second half of 2026, with recovery anticipated in 2027 as trading activity potentially stabilizes.
Andrew Jeffery, fintech equity analyst at William Blair, articulated the thesis that investors should maintain exposure to Coinbase as spot trading volumes approach a trough, though the firm stopped short of calling for near-term equity gains. The analyst cautioned that sector-wide consensus estimates will likely face further revision downward. Bitcoin's price action remained a critical variable for sentiment; BTC was struggling to maintain levels above $65,000, trading near $64,900 with modest daily gains of approximately 0.5%.
William Blair's contrarian positioning on both Coinbase and Circle reflects confidence that the recent selloff has created asymmetric risk-reward dynamics for investors with longer time horizons. Circle was highlighted as a high-quality crypto infrastructure play, with growth anchored to USDC stablecoin adoption. The thesis hinges on a bitcoin-led recovery in trading volumes and renewed institutional participation in crypto markets during 2027.
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