Key Takeaways
- • Brian Belski, founder and CIO of Humilis Investment Strategies, declared the secular bull market remains intact and projects continued strength through 2034, speaking at the 2026 Ben Graham Conference hosted by CFA Society New York on June 29, 2026.
- • Small and mid-cap stocks represent the most overlooked market opportunity, contrary to investor consensus focused on AI-related mega-cap names; Belski warned of a "small-cap storm" as the next leadership phase emerges.
- • Belski's investment framework rejects single-indicator reliance (such as Shiller P/E or quant models alone) in favor of a disciplined, multi-layered top-down and bottom-up process that scores valuation across earnings multiples, sales multiples, cash-flow multiples, and dividend yields at market, sector, and industry levels.
- • Belski brings 36 years of Wall Street experience, including a 13-year tenure building a $12.5 billion strategy business at BMO Capital Markets and prior roles at William O'Neil, Piper Jaffray, and Merrill Lynch.
- • The speaker emphasized thematic investing rules and fundamental company analysis (management quality, business model clarity, investor communications) as core to identifying the next market leaders, moving beyond consensus AI exposure.
Summary
Brian Belski, founder, CEO, and chief investment officer of Humilis Investment Strategies, opened the 2026 Ben Graham Conference with a contrarian thesis on market direction and sector leadership. Speaking before an audience of value investors and institutional professionals on June 29, 2026, Belski asserted that despite widespread skepticism, the secular bull market remains intact and is likely to extend toward 2034. His central warning to the market: the next wave of leadership will not come from the obvious artificial intelligence names dominating current investor attention.
Belski's most provocative call centered on small and mid-cap stocks as the most underappreciated opportunity in the market. While mega-cap technology and AI-related equities have captured institutional capital and media focus, Belski positioned smaller-cap securities as poised for significant outperformance as the market rotates. He labeled this shift a forthcoming "small-cap storm," signaling both magnitude and inevitability in the reallocation.
The core of Belski's investment philosophy rejects the reductionist approaches prevalent among both quantitative and traditional value managers. He dismissed investors who attempt to "buy CPI and PPI and quant models" as wholesale strategies, and was equally dismissive of those relying on single valuation screens like the Shiller P/E ratio. Instead, Belski articulated a disciplined, multi-tiered analytical process that begins with top-down valuation scoring across earnings multiples, sales multiples, cash-flow multiples, and inverted dividend yield—applied systematically at the market, sector, and industry levels. This quantitative framework is then married to thematic analysis and granular bottom-up fundamental work: understanding what a company actually does, assessing management quality, evaluating the durability of revenue streams, and judging the transparency and candor of executive communications with investors.
Belski's 36-year Wall Street career—including senior roles at William O'Neil, Piper Jaffray, Merrill Lynch, and a 13-year leadership position building a $12.5 billion strategy business at BMO Capital Markets—provided the credibility foundation for his remarks. His emphasis on process over formula, combined with his conviction that thematic rules and fundamental business scrutiny will drive the next market phase, positioned small and mid-cap value as the contrarian positioning for institutional investors skeptical of continued mega-cap concentration.
Belski's most provocative call centered on small and mid-cap stocks as the most underappreciated opportunity in the market. While mega-cap technology and AI-related equities have captured institutional capital and media focus, Belski positioned smaller-cap securities as poised for significant outperformance as the market rotates. He labeled this shift a forthcoming "small-cap storm," signaling both magnitude and inevitability in the reallocation.
The core of Belski's investment philosophy rejects the reductionist approaches prevalent among both quantitative and traditional value managers. He dismissed investors who attempt to "buy CPI and PPI and quant models" as wholesale strategies, and was equally dismissive of those relying on single valuation screens like the Shiller P/E ratio. Instead, Belski articulated a disciplined, multi-tiered analytical process that begins with top-down valuation scoring across earnings multiples, sales multiples, cash-flow multiples, and inverted dividend yield—applied systematically at the market, sector, and industry levels. This quantitative framework is then married to thematic analysis and granular bottom-up fundamental work: understanding what a company actually does, assessing management quality, evaluating the durability of revenue streams, and judging the transparency and candor of executive communications with investors.
Belski's 36-year Wall Street career—including senior roles at William O'Neil, Piper Jaffray, Merrill Lynch, and a 13-year leadership position building a $12.5 billion strategy business at BMO Capital Markets—provided the credibility foundation for his remarks. His emphasis on process over formula, combined with his conviction that thematic rules and fundamental business scrutiny will drive the next market phase, positioned small and mid-cap value as the contrarian positioning for institutional investors skeptical of continued mega-cap concentration.
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