Key Takeaways
- • Bill Ackman said on CNBC's Squawk Pod that if he were at American Express, he would be concerned about Ramp, a private corporate card and spend management startup valued at $60 billion after raising $1.85 billion in October.
- • Sell-side analysts still model American Express normalized EPS rising from $15.38 in 2025 to $23.21 in 2028, with revenue growth of 9% to 10% a year, showing no change in estimates following the comments.
- • AmEx trades at 17x forward earnings, in line with its 10-year average, and the average price target of $366 implies roughly 12% upside from Tuesday's close of $325.50.
- • Ramp's estimated $2 billion annualized revenue is about 40 times smaller than AmEx's projected $79.4 billion in 2026 revenue, though Ramp's business customer count has risen to more than 85,000.
Summary
Bill Ackman, CEO of Pershing Square, warned on CNBC's Squawk Pod on Election Day that American Express should be concerned about Ramp, which he described as building "basically a financial operating system for every company in the world." Ackman said he sees "a little bit more bubble-like activity" in private markets and singled out Ramp as a company that has earned its valuation. Ramp raised $1.85 billion at a $60 billion valuation in October, and research firm Sacra estimates its annualized revenue reached $2 billion, up from $1.23 billion at the end of 2025. According to Sacra, Ramp counted more than 85,000 business customers as of October, up from 50,000 at the start of the year.
Analyst estimates show no adjustment for the threat. According to TIKR consensus data, normalized EPS is expected to rise from $15.38 in 2025 to $17.82 in 2026, $20.20 in 2027 and $23.21 in 2028, double-digit growth each year. Revenue is projected at $79.4 billion this year and $86.6 billion in 2027, growth of 9% to 10% annually after 9% gains in both 2024 and 2025. Recent price target changes included J.P. Morgan at Buy with a $365 target (Oct. 30), Citi at Hold with $335, Evercore ISI at Hold with $330, Morgan Stanley at Hold with $380, and BMO Capital at Buy with $380. The $366 average target sits about 12% above Tuesday's close of $325.50.
AmEx shares are down 12% in 2026 and 16% from their 52-week high. At Tuesday's close the stock traded at 17x forward earnings, matching its 10-year average, which the TIKR analysis argues means the decline has not built in a discount for competitive risk. The $366 average target equates to roughly 19x the next twelve months' expected earnings. The author argues Ramp remains small relative to AmEx, whose network depends heavily on affluent consumer cardholders while Ramp focuses on company spending, and that the commercial billings trend in AmEx's reports next year will be the key indicator to monitor.
Analyst estimates show no adjustment for the threat. According to TIKR consensus data, normalized EPS is expected to rise from $15.38 in 2025 to $17.82 in 2026, $20.20 in 2027 and $23.21 in 2028, double-digit growth each year. Revenue is projected at $79.4 billion this year and $86.6 billion in 2027, growth of 9% to 10% annually after 9% gains in both 2024 and 2025. Recent price target changes included J.P. Morgan at Buy with a $365 target (Oct. 30), Citi at Hold with $335, Evercore ISI at Hold with $330, Morgan Stanley at Hold with $380, and BMO Capital at Buy with $380. The $366 average target sits about 12% above Tuesday's close of $325.50.
AmEx shares are down 12% in 2026 and 16% from their 52-week high. At Tuesday's close the stock traded at 17x forward earnings, matching its 10-year average, which the TIKR analysis argues means the decline has not built in a discount for competitive risk. The $366 average target equates to roughly 19x the next twelve months' expected earnings. The author argues Ramp remains small relative to AmEx, whose network depends heavily on affluent consumer cardholders while Ramp focuses on company spending, and that the commercial billings trend in AmEx's reports next year will be the key indicator to monitor.
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