Key Takeaways
- • Michael Burry maintains a bearish stance on Palantir Technologies, holding long-dated put options with strike prices of $50 (June 2027) and $100 (December 2026), asserting the company's fundamental value is "well under $50 per share."
- • Palantir stock has declined approximately 28% year-to-date in 2026 and experienced an 18% drop over three consecutive days preceding Burry's statement, despite a brief rally following a presidential endorsement.
- • Burry argues that Palantir remains "wildly overvalued" even after recent weakness, with the stock trading at $128.06 per share at the time of his Substack disclosure—more than double his valuation target.
- • The investor began his bearish position in fall 2025 and has repeatedly rolled his put options, demonstrating conviction in his thesis despite near-term positive catalysts including military procurement and geopolitical factors.
- • Burry's position reflects broader debate within the investment community regarding sustainability of high-growth technology valuations in the current interest rate environment.
Summary
Michael Burry, the investor famous for his contrarian "Big Short" bet preceding the 2008 financial crisis, is maintaining an aggressive short position against Palantir Technologies despite recent market catalysts that have supported the stock price. In a Substack post on Friday, Burry disclosed that he continues to hold long-dated put options with strike prices of $50 expiring June 17, 2027, and $100 expiring December 19, 2026. The investor initiated his bearish wager in fall 2025 and has actively managed the position by repeatedly rolling his options contracts forward.
Burry's timing reflects significant volatility in Palantir's stock performance. The shares have declined approximately 28% year-to-date in 2026 and experienced an 18% drop over a three-day period immediately preceding his statement. However, the stock briefly rallied following a Friday Truth Social post from President Donald Trump endorsing the company's military applications. Despite this endorsement, Palantir closed at $128.06 per share, substantially above Burry's estimated fundamental value. The investor acknowledged the possibility of additional near-term momentum but reiterated his conviction that current valuations are disconnected from underlying business fundamentals.
Burry's core argument centers on valuation disconnect. He contends that the company's fundamental value is less than half its current market price, with his $50 price target representing a 61% downside from the Friday closing level. The investor characterized Palantir as "wildly overvalued," reflecting his assessment that market participants are pricing in excessive growth expectations or assigning premium multiples that cannot be justified by the company's earnings power and competitive positioning. This valuation critique aligns with broader institutional skepticism regarding whether high-growth technology companies can sustain elevated multiples in a normalized interest rate environment.
The market has priced in significant upside from Palantir's relationships with U.S. military and intelligence agencies, with some market participants viewing the company as a beneficiary of heightened geopolitical tensions. However, Burry's thesis suggests that current valuations already reflect these positive catalysts and that the risk-reward proposition has become unfavorable. By maintaining substantial put positions with strike prices well below current levels, Burry is betting on either a gradual multiple compression or an earnings disappointment that forces a reassessment of the company's investment case.
Burry's timing reflects significant volatility in Palantir's stock performance. The shares have declined approximately 28% year-to-date in 2026 and experienced an 18% drop over a three-day period immediately preceding his statement. However, the stock briefly rallied following a Friday Truth Social post from President Donald Trump endorsing the company's military applications. Despite this endorsement, Palantir closed at $128.06 per share, substantially above Burry's estimated fundamental value. The investor acknowledged the possibility of additional near-term momentum but reiterated his conviction that current valuations are disconnected from underlying business fundamentals.
Burry's core argument centers on valuation disconnect. He contends that the company's fundamental value is less than half its current market price, with his $50 price target representing a 61% downside from the Friday closing level. The investor characterized Palantir as "wildly overvalued," reflecting his assessment that market participants are pricing in excessive growth expectations or assigning premium multiples that cannot be justified by the company's earnings power and competitive positioning. This valuation critique aligns with broader institutional skepticism regarding whether high-growth technology companies can sustain elevated multiples in a normalized interest rate environment.
The market has priced in significant upside from Palantir's relationships with U.S. military and intelligence agencies, with some market participants viewing the company as a beneficiary of heightened geopolitical tensions. However, Burry's thesis suggests that current valuations already reflect these positive catalysts and that the risk-reward proposition has become unfavorable. By maintaining substantial put positions with strike prices well below current levels, Burry is betting on either a gradual multiple compression or an earnings disappointment that forces a reassessment of the company's investment case.
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