Key Takeaways
- • Bill Ackman told CNBC's Money Movers that the Ukraine-Russia and Iran wars, together with elevated inflation and interest rates, are muting what he sees as a booming market setup, and he forecast "an amazing 2027."
- • Ackman argues war risk keeps energy prices high; if tensions ease, oil could fall, cooling inflation and supporting equities.
- • As of the report, U.S. oil was up 72% year to date in 2026 and Brent was up 83%, with the WTI December 2026 contract at $98.89.
- • U.S. CPI was up 3.7% year over year in September, with gasoline accounting for more than half of the latest increase, keeping inflation above the Fed's 2% goal.
- • Ackman cited Netflix at 18 times earnings as "one of the lowest valuations in history" and Meta as a core Pershing Square position he called "incredibly undervalued."
Summary
Bill Ackman told CNBC's Money Movers that two live conflicts, the Ukraine-Russia and Iran wars, along with elevated inflation and interest rates, are capping a market setup he otherwise considers booming. He said the Russia-Ukraine situation appears to be moving in a better direction and described the Iran conflict as an "extremely well-executed war." His core argument is that war risk has kept energy prices high. If tensions ease, he expects oil could fall, which would help cool inflation and lift markets. He also said peace in the Middle East would be good for the region and "ultimately great for the United States."
The energy channel is visible in the data. According to the article, U.S. oil is up 72% so far in 2026 and Brent has climbed 83%. The WTI December 2026 contract traded at $98.89, up 1.79%, at midday Eastern time. Investors worry that expensive energy feeds inflation and keeps the Federal Reserve from cutting rates. Gasoline accounted for more than half of the latest consumer price index increase, with overall prices up 3.7% year over year in September, still above the Fed's 2% target.
Ackman's stock picks reflect his long-term view. On Netflix, shares fell more than 5% Wednesday after soft advertising and revenue guidance, then recovered more than 3% Thursday. Ackman said concerns about content depth are overstated, citing management strength and user engagement. He noted the stock trades at 18 times earnings and expects earnings to grow at a mid- to high-teens rate, calling Netflix "a high growth utility." Meta, a core Pershing Square holding first disclosed in February, slipped 6% Thursday despite topping third-quarter revenue expectations and guiding strongly. Ackman dismissed the reaction, saying short-term, leveraged market participants make day-one post-earnings trading unreliable. He credited Meta's personal AI agent, Muse, with democratizing agent use and said AI is helping accelerate the business. He also views Meta's compute infrastructure spending as necessary and potentially attractive over time.
Ackman's framework links geopolitical risk to energy, energy to inflation, and inflation to interest rates. If that chain loosens, he expects a stronger market in 2027.
The energy channel is visible in the data. According to the article, U.S. oil is up 72% so far in 2026 and Brent has climbed 83%. The WTI December 2026 contract traded at $98.89, up 1.79%, at midday Eastern time. Investors worry that expensive energy feeds inflation and keeps the Federal Reserve from cutting rates. Gasoline accounted for more than half of the latest consumer price index increase, with overall prices up 3.7% year over year in September, still above the Fed's 2% target.
Ackman's stock picks reflect his long-term view. On Netflix, shares fell more than 5% Wednesday after soft advertising and revenue guidance, then recovered more than 3% Thursday. Ackman said concerns about content depth are overstated, citing management strength and user engagement. He noted the stock trades at 18 times earnings and expects earnings to grow at a mid- to high-teens rate, calling Netflix "a high growth utility." Meta, a core Pershing Square holding first disclosed in February, slipped 6% Thursday despite topping third-quarter revenue expectations and guiding strongly. Ackman dismissed the reaction, saying short-term, leveraged market participants make day-one post-earnings trading unreliable. He credited Meta's personal AI agent, Muse, with democratizing agent use and said AI is helping accelerate the business. He also views Meta's compute infrastructure spending as necessary and potentially attractive over time.
Ackman's framework links geopolitical risk to energy, energy to inflation, and inflation to interest rates. If that chain loosens, he expects a stronger market in 2027.
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