Key Takeaways
- • Dan Loeb's Third Point, The Windacre Partnership, and YCG all increased their TransDigm Group (TDG) stakes in the quarter ended June 30, per 13F filings, with Windacre's 684,100-share position worth $911 million, or 9.0% of its 13F holdings.
- • TransDigm trades at about 26x forward earnings, near the bottom of its five-year range (five-year average 33x, five-year low 23x), compared with roughly 36x for GE Aerospace and 24x for RTX.
- • Analysts' average price target has fallen from $1,558 a year ago to $1,414, while normalized EPS is expected to rise from $37.33 in fiscal 2025 to $48.66 in fiscal 2027.
- • TransDigm raised its fiscal 2026 guidance three times, with the adjusted EPS guide at $41.04 at the midpoint, and reports fiscal Q4 results next week.
- • The 13F data is a June 30 snapshot; the stock has since fallen roughly 10%, and the filings for the quarter ended Sept. 30 are due by Nov. 16.
Summary
Third Point, The Windacre Partnership, and YCG each added to their TransDigm Group positions in the quarter ended June 30, according to their latest 13F filings. Third Point more than tripled its stake to 79,000 shares worth $105 million, or 2.3% of its 13F holdings, at a firm managing $29 billion. The Windacre Partnership, which manages $11 billion and lists just 11 stocks on its 13F, raised its stake 34% to 684,100 shares worth $911 million, making TransDigm 9.0% of its 13F equities and its fourth-largest position. YCG, a $1.5 billion firm, lifted its stake 54% to 46,242 shares worth $62 million, its fifth-largest holding at 5.4% of its 13F portfolio.
The article notes that 13F filings reflect only quarter-end holdings, so the purchase prices and any subsequent trades are unknown. Anyone buying at the time of writing would pay about 10% less than the June 30 price used to value the filings.
TransDigm reported fiscal Q3 sales up 23% to $2.74 billion for the quarter ended June 27, with commercial aftermarket revenue up 17%. CEO Mike Lisman said bookings had exceeded expectations and that the company sees current momentum continuing. The company lifted its adjusted EPS guidance to $41.04 at the midpoint. Analysts' fiscal 2026 estimate of $41.16 sits at management's midpoint.
According to the article's TIKR data, TransDigm trades at 26x forward earnings, near the low end of its five-year range. GE Aerospace's forward P/E fell from 49x at June 30 to 37x at Sept. 30, and the article says it has since slipped further, while RTX trades at 24x. The 23 analysts covering TransDigm have an average price target of $1,414, about 18% above the last close, down from $1,558 a year ago and a January peak of $1,622. Individual targets range from $1,100 to $1,745.
The article identifies aftermarket slowdown as the main risk, noting GE Aerospace expects commercial services growth to slow to the low double digits in 2027 from the low 20s this year. The author argues the funds' positioning reflects confidence in a business that keeps raising guidance, though the piece is an opinion from TIKR and is not investment advice.
The article notes that 13F filings reflect only quarter-end holdings, so the purchase prices and any subsequent trades are unknown. Anyone buying at the time of writing would pay about 10% less than the June 30 price used to value the filings.
TransDigm reported fiscal Q3 sales up 23% to $2.74 billion for the quarter ended June 27, with commercial aftermarket revenue up 17%. CEO Mike Lisman said bookings had exceeded expectations and that the company sees current momentum continuing. The company lifted its adjusted EPS guidance to $41.04 at the midpoint. Analysts' fiscal 2026 estimate of $41.16 sits at management's midpoint.
According to the article's TIKR data, TransDigm trades at 26x forward earnings, near the low end of its five-year range. GE Aerospace's forward P/E fell from 49x at June 30 to 37x at Sept. 30, and the article says it has since slipped further, while RTX trades at 24x. The 23 analysts covering TransDigm have an average price target of $1,414, about 18% above the last close, down from $1,558 a year ago and a January peak of $1,622. Individual targets range from $1,100 to $1,745.
The article identifies aftermarket slowdown as the main risk, noting GE Aerospace expects commercial services growth to slow to the low double digits in 2027 from the low 20s this year. The author argues the funds' positioning reflects confidence in a business that keeps raising guidance, though the piece is an opinion from TIKR and is not investment advice.
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