Key Takeaways
- • David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital raised its Viatris (VTRS) stake 53% in the quarter ended June 30, per its 13F filed Aug. 14, bringing holdings to 2.77 million shares worth $44 million.
- • Invenomic Capital Management, a $3.4 billion manager, cut its Viatris stake 46% in the same quarter, leaving 1.74 million shares worth $28 million.
- • Viatris is up 21% since June 30, trades at 7.3x forward earnings versus a five-year average of 4.3x, and sits 6% below the $20 consensus target.
- • Viatris raised the midpoint of its 2026 guidance in August and returned about $550 million to shareholders, with consensus calling for normalized EPS to rise from $2.35 in fiscal 2025 to $2.90 in fiscal 2028.
- • The author sees Einhorn's position as the better call, but argues further gains must now come from earnings delivery, with the Q3 report due within days.
Summary
Two funds took opposite positions in Viatris in the quarter ended June 30. According to TIKR's analysis of 13F filings, Greenlight Capital, led by David Einhorn, increased its Viatris stake 53% to 2.77 million shares, worth $44 million. That position was 1.1% of Greenlight's 13F holdings and its 33rd-largest of 46 positions. Einhorn's investor letter stated Greenlight first bought Viatris in Q4 2023.
Invenomic Capital Management, which manages $3.4 billion, cut its stake 46% in the same quarter, to 1.74 million shares worth $28 million. That represented 1.6% of its 13F holdings and its 18th-largest of 115 positions. Even after the sale, Invenomic held a larger share of its portfolio in Viatris than Greenlight did.
Since June 30, Viatris shares have risen 21%, with the stock at $18.92 versus $10.53 a year earlier. Viatris reported second-quarter revenue of $3.8 billion on Aug. 6, up 3.5% year over year, and raised the midpoint of its 2026 guidance. The company returned about $550 million to shareholders in the quarter, partly through buybacks, and reduced its gross leverage ratio to 2.9x. Normalized EPS fell from $2.93 in fiscal 2023 to $2.35 in fiscal 2025, and consensus projects growth to $2.90 by fiscal 2028, though only six analysts provide estimates that far out.
Valuation is the key constraint. At 7.3x forward earnings, Viatris trades well above its five-year average of 4.3x and near the 7.5x high reached Oct. 29. TIKR tracks 12 analysts whose consensus target has risen from $12 a year ago to $20, with a range of $14 to $26. The author concludes Einhorn is right on the business, but notes the recovery so far rests on estimates rather than reported results.
Note that 13F filings do not disclose trade timing, purchase prices, or rationale, and show no short positions. The funds' September-quarter 13Fs are due by Nov. 16, and Viatris is expected to report Q3 results in the coming days.
Invenomic Capital Management, which manages $3.4 billion, cut its stake 46% in the same quarter, to 1.74 million shares worth $28 million. That represented 1.6% of its 13F holdings and its 18th-largest of 115 positions. Even after the sale, Invenomic held a larger share of its portfolio in Viatris than Greenlight did.
Since June 30, Viatris shares have risen 21%, with the stock at $18.92 versus $10.53 a year earlier. Viatris reported second-quarter revenue of $3.8 billion on Aug. 6, up 3.5% year over year, and raised the midpoint of its 2026 guidance. The company returned about $550 million to shareholders in the quarter, partly through buybacks, and reduced its gross leverage ratio to 2.9x. Normalized EPS fell from $2.93 in fiscal 2023 to $2.35 in fiscal 2025, and consensus projects growth to $2.90 by fiscal 2028, though only six analysts provide estimates that far out.
Valuation is the key constraint. At 7.3x forward earnings, Viatris trades well above its five-year average of 4.3x and near the 7.5x high reached Oct. 29. TIKR tracks 12 analysts whose consensus target has risen from $12 a year ago to $20, with a range of $14 to $26. The author concludes Einhorn is right on the business, but notes the recovery so far rests on estimates rather than reported results.
Note that 13F filings do not disclose trade timing, purchase prices, or rationale, and show no short positions. The funds' September-quarter 13Fs are due by Nov. 16, and Viatris is expected to report Q3 results in the coming days.
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