Key Takeaways
- • Situational Awareness LP, the AI-focused hedge fund founded by former OpenAI employee Leopold Aschenbrenner, disclosed $1.56 billion in new put option positions on Nvidia and over $2 billion in bearish bets tied to the VanEck Semiconductor ETF ($SMH) in its Q1 2026 13F filing.
- • The fund simultaneously expanded bearish positions across major semiconductor and AI infrastructure names, including Broadcom, Oracle, AMD, Taiwan Semiconductor, ASML, Intel, Micron, and Corning, signaling broad skepticism toward the AI chip sector.
- • Despite aggressive short positioning in semiconductors, Situational Awareness increased long equity exposure in AI infrastructure and cryptocurrency-related holdings, including CleanSpark, Riot Platforms, Applied Digital, CoreWeave, and IREN.
- • The fund fully exited several prior equity positions during Q1 2026, including Cipher Mining, Coherent, EQT, Hut 8, and Tower Semiconductor, while opening new call option positions on Sandisk and Taiwan Semiconductor.
- • The positioning reflects a nuanced hedging strategy: betting against elevated valuations and potential overcapacity in established semiconductor supply chains while maintaining conviction in emerging AI infrastructure and power generation assets.
Summary
Situational Awareness LP, the quantitatively-driven hedge fund led by Leopold Aschenbrenner, a researcher with prior OpenAI experience, disclosed a substantial rebalancing of its semiconductor and AI infrastructure portfolio in its first-quarter 2026 13F regulatory filing. The most conspicuous element of this repositioning is the fund's massive bearish bet against Nvidia, the dominant supplier of AI training chips. According to the filing, Situational Awareness established put option positions worth approximately $1.56 billion on Nvidia shares, paired with over $2 billion in additional put options tied to the broader VanEck Semiconductor ETF, which tracks the sector's largest publicly traded names.
The fund's bearish positioning extends well beyond Nvidia. The Q1 filing reveals newly established put option positions across a range of semiconductor and AI infrastructure suppliers, including Broadcom, Oracle, AMD, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), ASML, Intel, Corning, and Micron Technology. This coordinated expansion of short exposure suggests the fund holds a systematic thesis regarding either elevated semiconductor valuations, anticipated margin compression in the sector, or oversupply concerns tied to the artificial intelligence infrastructure buildout. The scale and breadth of the puts indicate conviction in a near-to-medium-term headwind for semiconductor equities.
In apparent contrast, Situational Awareness simultaneously increased several long equity positions across AI infrastructure and cryptocurrency-adjacent sectors. The fund expanded holdings in CleanSpark, Riot Platforms, Applied Digital, CoreWeave, and IREN, indicating selective confidence in data center infrastructure, power generation for computing facilities, and emerging AI service providers. This mixed positioning—combining sector-wide puts against established chipmakers with concentrated longs in infrastructure and emerging AI platforms—reflects a nuanced thesis: the fund appears to be positioning for potential disruption of incumbent semiconductor suppliers while maintaining exposure to beneficiaries of AI infrastructure migration and energy transition dynamics.
During Q1 2026, Situational Awareness also executed full exits from Cipher Mining, Coherent, EQT, Hut 8, and Tower Semiconductor, while establishing new call option positions on Sandisk and Taiwan Semiconductor. The decision to open calls on TSMC alongside put positions on the same company suggests options-based portfolio management aimed at managing tail risk or establishing range-bound tactical exposure. The overall positioning pattern indicates a fund actively rotating away from certain legacy semiconductor and cryptographic mining exposures while recalibrating its long-short balance across the AI infrastructure stack.
The fund's bearish positioning extends well beyond Nvidia. The Q1 filing reveals newly established put option positions across a range of semiconductor and AI infrastructure suppliers, including Broadcom, Oracle, AMD, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), ASML, Intel, Corning, and Micron Technology. This coordinated expansion of short exposure suggests the fund holds a systematic thesis regarding either elevated semiconductor valuations, anticipated margin compression in the sector, or oversupply concerns tied to the artificial intelligence infrastructure buildout. The scale and breadth of the puts indicate conviction in a near-to-medium-term headwind for semiconductor equities.
In apparent contrast, Situational Awareness simultaneously increased several long equity positions across AI infrastructure and cryptocurrency-adjacent sectors. The fund expanded holdings in CleanSpark, Riot Platforms, Applied Digital, CoreWeave, and IREN, indicating selective confidence in data center infrastructure, power generation for computing facilities, and emerging AI service providers. This mixed positioning—combining sector-wide puts against established chipmakers with concentrated longs in infrastructure and emerging AI platforms—reflects a nuanced thesis: the fund appears to be positioning for potential disruption of incumbent semiconductor suppliers while maintaining exposure to beneficiaries of AI infrastructure migration and energy transition dynamics.
During Q1 2026, Situational Awareness also executed full exits from Cipher Mining, Coherent, EQT, Hut 8, and Tower Semiconductor, while establishing new call option positions on Sandisk and Taiwan Semiconductor. The decision to open calls on TSMC alongside put positions on the same company suggests options-based portfolio management aimed at managing tail risk or establishing range-bound tactical exposure. The overall positioning pattern indicates a fund actively rotating away from certain legacy semiconductor and cryptographic mining exposures while recalibrating its long-short balance across the AI infrastructure stack.
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