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Risk Models Behind World’s Best Hedge Fund Strategy Are Getting a Lot Harder to Crack

Reported by Bloomberg ·Claimsjournal
Feb 26, 2024· 1 min read
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Key Takeaways
  • • Insurance-linked securities, dominated by catastrophe bonds (cat bonds), were the best-performing hedge fund strategy of 2023, according to Bloomberg reporting.
  • • Firms including Fermat Capital Management and Tenax Capital booked their biggest-ever returns in 2023 from the strategy.
  • • The strategy is attracting mainstream investors, and the risk models underpinning it are becoming harder to rely on as the market grows.
Summary
According to a Bloomberg exclusive published February 25, 2024 and updated February 26, 2024, insurance-linked securities (ILS) delivered the strongest returns of any asset class for hedge funds in 2023. The asset class is dominated by catastrophe bonds, which transfer insurance risk from issuers to capital markets investors and pay returns tied to the occurrence of natural disasters.

Bloomberg reports that in 2023 no other asset class produced a better-performing bet for hedge funds. Fermat Capital Management and Tenax Capital both recorded their largest annual returns on record, highlighting the strategy's performance during the year.

The article's central concern is that the strategy's appeal to mainstream investors is growing while the risk models used to price and manage these exposures are becoming more difficult to validate. As the investor base broadens, scrutiny of how catastrophe risk is modeled is likely to increase. Readers seeking the full analysis of model limitations and the specific risks identified should refer to the original Bloomberg article.

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Sources

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AlphaMaven summarised this story from the reporting below. Each link opens the original article.

Bloomberg Risk Models Behind World’s Best Hedge Fund Strategy Are Getting a Lot Harder to Crack Claimsjournal Risk Models Behind World’s Best Hedge Fund Strategy Are Getting a Lot Harder to Crack