Key Takeaways
- • ESPN analyst Alden Gonzalez said the Mets "really, really, really need" free-agent left-hander Tarik Skubal, while the Dodgers "really don't," making New York the presumed front-runner on motivation alone.
- • Owner Steve Cohen has the financial flexibility to pursue Skubal, with the Mets owing about $281 million for 2027 and only $192 million for 2028, per Cot's Contracts.
- • SNY floated roughly $350 million over eight years for Skubal, which would top Yoshinobu Yamamoto's $325 million record for a pitcher; early chatter has also floated 10 years and $500 million.
- • Jeff Passan of ESPN expects Skubal to sign before the December 1 lockout, with Scott Boras pushing for a deal before the collective bargaining agreement expires.
- • Skubal's 2026 season (2.72 ERA, 186 strikeouts over 26 starts) and his elite underlying metrics support the contract talk, though his elbow history remains the primary caution.
Summary
ESPN analyst Alden Gonzalez, speaking on ESPN's Baseball Tonight podcast, said the New York Mets have a far greater need for free-agent left-hander Tarik Skubal than the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Mets missed the playoffs for a second straight year and have not won a World Series since 1986. The Dodgers, who reached the National League Championship Series with Skubal after a deadline trade, carry roughly $388 million in 2027 commitments. Mets owner Steve Cohen has the financial room to pursue Skubal: per Cot's Contracts, the club owes about $281 million for 2027 and $192 million for 2028, and pitchers Sean Manaea and Kodai Senga and infielder Jorge Polanco, worth $57 million combined, come off the books after next season.
The main hesitation involves the front office. According to MLB.com, Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns has never given a starter a major commitment. The club's young arms, including Nolan McLean, Christian Scott and Zac Thornton, would give Skubal a rotation worth joining. The New York Yankees are also considered capable of meeting the price.
Timing is a factor. In an ESPN report, MLB insider Jeff Passan said Skubal "is far and away the best player in this class, and the expectation is he will sign before the Dec. 1 lockout." The collective bargaining agreement expires next month, and agent Scott Boras wants a deal in place beforehand. SNY floated roughly $350 million over eight years, which would exceed Yamamoto's $325 million pitcher record. Boras prefers to let teams bid against each other, and early chatter has floated 10 years and $500 million. Skubal declined to discuss free agency with MLB.com reporter Sonja Chen after the NLCS loss to the Milwaukee Brewers, saying, "I'm not going to comment on my future really at all."
Skubal's performance supports the contract talk. He won back-to-back American League Cy Young Awards with ERAs of 2.39 and 2.21, then posted a 2.72 ERA with 186 strikeouts across 26 starts in 2026 despite missing six weeks. His four-seam fastball averaged 96.8 mph in 2026, his walk rate ranked in the 99th percentile, and hitters whiffed on 46.9 percent of their swings against his changeup. His 155 ERA+, 5.2 fWAR and 2.51 FIP reflect results the underlying metrics support. Durability is the principal concern: he underwent Tommy John surgery in college in 2017 and flexor tendon surgery in August 2022, so another major elbow procedure would complicate a long-term commitment.
The main hesitation involves the front office. According to MLB.com, Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns has never given a starter a major commitment. The club's young arms, including Nolan McLean, Christian Scott and Zac Thornton, would give Skubal a rotation worth joining. The New York Yankees are also considered capable of meeting the price.
Timing is a factor. In an ESPN report, MLB insider Jeff Passan said Skubal "is far and away the best player in this class, and the expectation is he will sign before the Dec. 1 lockout." The collective bargaining agreement expires next month, and agent Scott Boras wants a deal in place beforehand. SNY floated roughly $350 million over eight years, which would exceed Yamamoto's $325 million pitcher record. Boras prefers to let teams bid against each other, and early chatter has floated 10 years and $500 million. Skubal declined to discuss free agency with MLB.com reporter Sonja Chen after the NLCS loss to the Milwaukee Brewers, saying, "I'm not going to comment on my future really at all."
Skubal's performance supports the contract talk. He won back-to-back American League Cy Young Awards with ERAs of 2.39 and 2.21, then posted a 2.72 ERA with 186 strikeouts across 26 starts in 2026 despite missing six weeks. His four-seam fastball averaged 96.8 mph in 2026, his walk rate ranked in the 99th percentile, and hitters whiffed on 46.9 percent of their swings against his changeup. His 155 ERA+, 5.2 fWAR and 2.51 FIP reflect results the underlying metrics support. Durability is the principal concern: he underwent Tommy John surgery in college in 2017 and flexor tendon surgery in August 2022, so another major elbow procedure would complicate a long-term commitment.
Go deeper than the headline
Research every firm in this story, track the ones that matter and get the daily briefing — free for 7 days.