Key Takeaways
- • Jordi Visser, president and chief strategist of 22V Research, argues the November 2026 AI selloff was a hedge fund deleveraging and forced-liquidation event rather than the bursting of an AI bubble, and says he is buying into it, led by Micron.
- • Per JPMorgan's estimate cited by Visser, trend-following funds and levered ETFs cut more than $70 billion of equity exposure within 90 minutes of the Thursday open, with net S&P futures selling reaching $11 billion.
- • Morgan Stanley data showed US long-short hedge fund net leverage fell 5% day over day on Thursday, the fifth-largest single-day decline since 2010, while Goldman Sachs' panic index hit 9.57 out of 10.
- • Visser says he began buying around October 27, 2026, is explicit that he may be early or wrong, and concedes Micron could fall toward $500 before bottoming.
- • Visser frames the Democratic midterm sweep, his "blue tsunami," as a secondary, net-positive input that removes left-tail policy risk rather than the core driver of the AI trade.
Summary
Jordi Visser, president and chief strategist of 22V Research, contends that the AI-led sell-off of early November 2026 reflected hedge fund deleveraging and mechanical selling rather than a change in AI fundamentals. In a roughly hour-long episode, he cites JPMorgan's estimate that trend-following funds and levered ETFs together cut more than $70 billion of equity exposure within 90 minutes of the Thursday open, with net selling of S&P futures reaching $11 billion and CTAs flipping to net short. Morgan Stanley data showed US long-short hedge fund net leverage falling 5% day over day on Thursday, the fifth-largest single-day decline since 2010. Levered ETFs recorded their largest amount of selling in data going back to 2007, according to the same firm's estimates.
Visser points to market stress indicators as confirmation. Goldman Sachs' panic index reached 9.57 out of 10, producing the largest two-day swing on record. The VIX's one-day percentage move ranked third in 25 years, and the VVIX posted its biggest one-day percentage jump in 20 years. He also uses the AQR mutual funds as a real-time deleveraging gauge, noting that the AQR long-short fund recorded its worst seven-day reading outside COVID in its history and that the managed-futures fund also lost money. He says the episode still resembles the 2007 quant quake.
Visser disclosed that his first purchases came around October 27, 2026, and that his largest buying occurred the week of the recording. He said his concentrated 10-name portfolio had retraced roughly 70% of its gain and that averaging in restored his AI weighting. Micron was his largest purchase, with Marvell and Nvidia also bought. He said that on his valuation anchor, the 200-day moving average, Micron moved from 200% above to 13% below as of Friday's close. He concedes Micron could fall toward $500 before bottoming and says he may be early or wrong. He draws a parallel to software, where IGV broke down on stable earnings and recovered about three months later.
On the midterms, Visser treats the Democratic sweep as a net positive because it removes what he considers the largest policy risk, full government alignment with AI companies. He argues the data center build-out will continue, though with slower, more scrutinized capital raising. He cites roughly $1.5 trillion raised in 2026 as covering needs through at least 2027, and notes that Anthropic's IPO valuation has been reported at $1.6 trillion, versus the $1.5 trillion reported by the Wall Street Journal. He also says OpenAI raised at a reported $1.2 trillion.
Visser's structural framing holds that the S&P 500 now behaves like "the S&P 492 and the S&P 8," citing Marc Andreessen: 492 companies trading like bonds and eight growth leaders acting as call options. He ties this to a shift toward market-neutral, factor-driven hedge fund strategies and cites Lone Pine's drawdown as a cautionary example. His primary tell is the inverted quality index, which he says has been flat for two weeks while the quality-versus-beta spread saw a large unwind on Friday. He also notes that 10-year yields fell after a stronger-than-expected payrolls print, that Brent posted a sharp weekly decline, and that Bitcoin held support near $75,000–76,000.
Visser points to market stress indicators as confirmation. Goldman Sachs' panic index reached 9.57 out of 10, producing the largest two-day swing on record. The VIX's one-day percentage move ranked third in 25 years, and the VVIX posted its biggest one-day percentage jump in 20 years. He also uses the AQR mutual funds as a real-time deleveraging gauge, noting that the AQR long-short fund recorded its worst seven-day reading outside COVID in its history and that the managed-futures fund also lost money. He says the episode still resembles the 2007 quant quake.
Visser disclosed that his first purchases came around October 27, 2026, and that his largest buying occurred the week of the recording. He said his concentrated 10-name portfolio had retraced roughly 70% of its gain and that averaging in restored his AI weighting. Micron was his largest purchase, with Marvell and Nvidia also bought. He said that on his valuation anchor, the 200-day moving average, Micron moved from 200% above to 13% below as of Friday's close. He concedes Micron could fall toward $500 before bottoming and says he may be early or wrong. He draws a parallel to software, where IGV broke down on stable earnings and recovered about three months later.
On the midterms, Visser treats the Democratic sweep as a net positive because it removes what he considers the largest policy risk, full government alignment with AI companies. He argues the data center build-out will continue, though with slower, more scrutinized capital raising. He cites roughly $1.5 trillion raised in 2026 as covering needs through at least 2027, and notes that Anthropic's IPO valuation has been reported at $1.6 trillion, versus the $1.5 trillion reported by the Wall Street Journal. He also says OpenAI raised at a reported $1.2 trillion.
Visser's structural framing holds that the S&P 500 now behaves like "the S&P 492 and the S&P 8," citing Marc Andreessen: 492 companies trading like bonds and eight growth leaders acting as call options. He ties this to a shift toward market-neutral, factor-driven hedge fund strategies and cites Lone Pine's drawdown as a cautionary example. His primary tell is the inverted quality index, which he says has been flat for two weeks while the quality-versus-beta spread saw a large unwind on Friday. He also notes that 10-year yields fell after a stronger-than-expected payrolls print, that Brent posted a sharp weekly decline, and that Bitcoin held support near $75,000–76,000.
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