Key Takeaways
- • Paul Tudor Jones said he will be short all of 2027, citing what he called the most negative US equity flow picture since 2002 from a flood of issuance and lockup shares, with 2026 issuance possibly topping the 2021 record of $540 billion.
- • Goldman Sachs' Ben Snider projects $1.7 trillion in lockup shares plus $600 billion in issuance in 2027, the largest net supply increase since 2000, but does not expect it to derail the bull market.
- • Bank of America agreed to over $1.21 billion in penalties, the Treasury's third-largest and the OCC's record, for Bank Secrecy Act violations involving more than $5 billion in unreported suspicious transactions.
- • The Treasury said Bank of America prioritized revenue over compliance, waited for inquiries, and ignored red flags, even after a 2024 cease-and-desist without a fine.
- • Ukraine struck an oil depot in Valuyki, Belgorod Oblast, the first energy infrastructure hit since President Trump's energy ceasefire, while SpaceX capped StarShield Starlink terminals at 100 mph, affecting drone missions.
Summary
Paul Tudor Jones told CNBC's "Squawk Box" that he will be short all of 2027, calling it a "really challenging" year for equities. He cited the most negative US equity flow picture since 2002, driven by an issuance and lockup supply wave similar to the 1998-2002 period. Per the reports, 2026 issuance may exceed the 2021 record of $540 billion. Goldman Sachs' Ben Snider expects $1.7 trillion in lockup shares and $600 billion in issuance in 2027, the largest net supply increase since 2000, but does not expect it to derail the bull market, citing over $1 trillion in first-half 2026 household and foreign buying, earnings growth, and falling rates. Buybacks may reach $1.7 trillion.
Bank of America received over $1.21 billion in penalties, the Treasury's third-largest and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency's record, for Bank Secrecy Act violations. The bank failed to report over $5 billion in suspicious transactions, including more than $1 billion tied to priority national-security risks such as Chinese money-laundering networks and border illicit finance. The Treasury said the bank prioritized revenues over compliance and failed to escalate after a 2024 cease-and-desist without a fine. The Office of Foreign Assets Control separately settled for $11.6 million over 475 sanctions violations. The bank admitted the BSA violations. A spokesperson said the bank has invested billions in technology and thousands of employees to combat financial crime.
In energy and geopolitics, Ukraine struck an oil depot in Valuyki, Belgorod Oblast, setting it ablaze, described as the first energy infrastructure hit since Trump's energy ceasefire. Trump also announced oil, gas, and mineral exploration in Greenland without a timeline; analysts describe the territory as remote, underexplored, and very high cost. In the Gulf, a Houthi missile reportedly struck or sent debris toward Aramco headquarters in Dhahran, and Saudi Arabia rejected Netanyahu's US-mediated offer to join the Yemen fight. Iranian officials have reportedly warned of possible ground incursions into Gulf neighbors if the US resumes major bombing after the midterms. SpaceX also capped StarShield Starlink terminals at 100 mph, affecting some drone strike missions in Ukraine.
Other items included a Senate investigation finding data center grid-cost commitments apply only to dedicated infrastructure, FERC's rejection of most of PJM's large-load interconnection proposal, and an Ohio jury convicting blogger D.J. Byrnes over a satirical meme aimed at Senator Jerry Cirino, who was fined $200. House Speaker Mike Johnson pledged a lame-duck vote on the Protection Against Mass Surveillance Act.
Bank of America received over $1.21 billion in penalties, the Treasury's third-largest and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency's record, for Bank Secrecy Act violations. The bank failed to report over $5 billion in suspicious transactions, including more than $1 billion tied to priority national-security risks such as Chinese money-laundering networks and border illicit finance. The Treasury said the bank prioritized revenues over compliance and failed to escalate after a 2024 cease-and-desist without a fine. The Office of Foreign Assets Control separately settled for $11.6 million over 475 sanctions violations. The bank admitted the BSA violations. A spokesperson said the bank has invested billions in technology and thousands of employees to combat financial crime.
In energy and geopolitics, Ukraine struck an oil depot in Valuyki, Belgorod Oblast, setting it ablaze, described as the first energy infrastructure hit since Trump's energy ceasefire. Trump also announced oil, gas, and mineral exploration in Greenland without a timeline; analysts describe the territory as remote, underexplored, and very high cost. In the Gulf, a Houthi missile reportedly struck or sent debris toward Aramco headquarters in Dhahran, and Saudi Arabia rejected Netanyahu's US-mediated offer to join the Yemen fight. Iranian officials have reportedly warned of possible ground incursions into Gulf neighbors if the US resumes major bombing after the midterms. SpaceX also capped StarShield Starlink terminals at 100 mph, affecting some drone strike missions in Ukraine.
Other items included a Senate investigation finding data center grid-cost commitments apply only to dedicated infrastructure, FERC's rejection of most of PJM's large-load interconnection proposal, and an Ohio jury convicting blogger D.J. Byrnes over a satirical meme aimed at Senator Jerry Cirino, who was fined $200. House Speaker Mike Johnson pledged a lame-duck vote on the Protection Against Mass Surveillance Act.
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