A weak Indian Monsoon & global economic worries hit silver prices

Jim Roemer, a meteorologist and Commodity Trading Advisor and principal of Best Weather Inc., wrote in a syndicated column published November 2, 2026 that he had warned earlier in the year of a major silver selloff. He said the view rested on four signals: a weak Indian monsoon, bearish chart patterns, rising interest-rate expectations and excessive speculative buying. Roemer noted that he does not normally advise on markets outside weather-related agricultural and natural gas commodities.

On the monsoon, Roemer argued that India, one of the largest consumers of silver for jewelry, silverware and investment, would see weaker rural purchasing power after a disappointing monsoon reduced farm incomes. He described the chain as weak monsoon, reduced farm income, weaker rural purchasing power and potential pressure on Indian silver demand. He said he had raised this concern two to three months earlier.

Roemer also pointed to technical deterioration as upward momentum weakened and prices threatened key support levels, and to rising U.S. rate expectations, which he said favor interest-bearing assets over non-yielding silver and can strengthen the dollar. The most significant risk, in his view, was crowded speculative long positioning by hedge funds and other speculators, which could force simultaneous liquidation.

Roemer said recent reports reinforced these concerns. He cited a roughly 13% decline in silver over the past month, with analysts pointing to higher real yields, crowded speculative positioning and weakening industrial demand. He also cited a Reuters report from October 22 that Indian silver jewelry and investment demand stayed weak despite the festive season. He acknowledged that this does not establish the weak monsoon as the primary cause of the decline. The column is framed as commentary and promotes Roemer's WeatherWealth and Climatelligence newsletters.