Key Takeaways
- • Commodities surged +12.03% in July following two consecutive monthly declines, extending their commanding year-to-date lead to +38.95%, driven significantly by an 87% surge in crude oil prices through the month.
- • Managed Futures emerged as the second-strongest performer with a +3.77% July gain—their strongest monthly return since January—lifting year-to-date performance to +13.40% and narrowly edging World Stocks for second place on the scoreboard.
- • Bonds became the first and only asset class to turn negative year-to-date, falling -1.28% in July to -0.55% for the seven-month period, signaling persistent weakness in fixed income amid the current market environment.
- • U.S. Real Estate added +2.78% in July to reach +12.80% year-to-date, while U.S. Stocks remained essentially flat at +0.03% for the month, holding steady at +10.14% year-to-date performance.
- • Hedge Funds declined -1.42% in July, trimming their year-to-date return to +7.67%, while Cash continued to provide modest stability with a +0.31% monthly gain and +2.18% year-to-date return.
Summary
July 2026 marked a dramatic inflection point for commodity markets, which rebounded sharply after two consecutive months of declines. Commodities, tracked via the iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust ETF (GSG), jumped +12.03% for the month, catapulting their year-to-date performance to +38.95% and cementing their position as the strongest-performing asset class through the first seven months of 2026. The rebound was anchored by a pronounced rally in crude oil, which surged 87% through July, demonstrating the outsized influence of energy markets within the broader commodity complex.
Managed Futures posted their strongest monthly performance since January with a +3.77% gain in July, as measured by the SocGen CTA Index. This advance elevated their year-to-date return to +13.40%, positioning them narrowly ahead of World Stocks for second place on the asset class scoreboard. The category has demonstrated resilience, posting positive returns in five of seven months through July, with only modest setbacks of -0.83% in March and -1.09% in June, suggesting that trend-following strategies have adapted effectively to the current market regime.
U.S. Real Estate, tracked via the iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (IYR), added +2.78% in July to reach +12.80% year-to-date, while traditional U.S. Stocks were essentially flat for the month at +0.03%, maintaining their year-to-date return of +10.14%. World Stocks, measured by the iShares MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. index, slipped -1.13% in July to settle at +13.35% year-to-date and third place overall.
Defensive asset classes endured a tougher July environment. Bonds, represented by the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND), fell -1.28% during the month and turned negative for the year at -0.55%, becoming the sole asset class in negative territory through seven months of 2026. Hedge Funds, as measured by the IQ Hedge Multi-Strategy Tracker ETF (QAI), declined -1.42% in July, reducing their year-to-date performance to +7.67%. Cash remained the steadiest performer among defensive positions, gaining +0.31% in July and holding a year-to-date return of +2.18%, reflecting the ongoing stability of short-term Treasury instruments.
Managed Futures posted their strongest monthly performance since January with a +3.77% gain in July, as measured by the SocGen CTA Index. This advance elevated their year-to-date return to +13.40%, positioning them narrowly ahead of World Stocks for second place on the asset class scoreboard. The category has demonstrated resilience, posting positive returns in five of seven months through July, with only modest setbacks of -0.83% in March and -1.09% in June, suggesting that trend-following strategies have adapted effectively to the current market regime.
U.S. Real Estate, tracked via the iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (IYR), added +2.78% in July to reach +12.80% year-to-date, while traditional U.S. Stocks were essentially flat for the month at +0.03%, maintaining their year-to-date return of +10.14%. World Stocks, measured by the iShares MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. index, slipped -1.13% in July to settle at +13.35% year-to-date and third place overall.
Defensive asset classes endured a tougher July environment. Bonds, represented by the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND), fell -1.28% during the month and turned negative for the year at -0.55%, becoming the sole asset class in negative territory through seven months of 2026. Hedge Funds, as measured by the IQ Hedge Multi-Strategy Tracker ETF (QAI), declined -1.42% in July, reducing their year-to-date performance to +7.67%. Cash remained the steadiest performer among defensive positions, gaining +0.31% in July and holding a year-to-date return of +2.18%, reflecting the ongoing stability of short-term Treasury instruments.
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