Key Takeaways
- • Last trading dates set: Tuesday, April 28th marks the final trading day for May 2026 NYMEX Natural Gas futures and April 2026 COMEX/NYMEX Metals futures contracts, triggering delivery settlement windows.
- • Aluminum backwardation signals supply strain: LME aluminum spot contracts traded at an $18-per-ton premium to one-day-forward contracts on April 24th, with three-month spreads approaching 19-year highs, indicating spot demand is outpacing available supply as geopolitical tensions persist.
- • Iran conflict supports aluminum rally: Aluminum prices have gained approximately 15% since the start of regional conflict, outperforming other industrial metals as supply threat concerns override broader economic headwinds tied to the war.
- • Copper and steel prices under pressure: LME copper three-month futures fell $67.75 to $13,288.50, while CME hot-rolled coil steel held at $1,045, reflecting mixed sentiment across metals complex amid competing demand and macroeconomic concerns.
Summary
Natural gas and metals futures are approaching critical settlement windows, with May 2026 NYMEX Natural Gas and April 2026 COMEX/NYMEX Metals contracts expiring on Tuesday, April 28th, 2026. This timing marks a key juncture for traders managing delivery obligations and rolling forward positions ahead of contract maturity.
The metals complex is displaying significant supply-demand imbalances, particularly in aluminum. On April 24th, aluminum spot contracts were trading at steep premiums to forward-dated futures in a backwardation pattern—with one-day spreads reaching $18-per-ton premiums, the highest level in two years. Three-month spreads have surged toward 19-year highs, signaling acute spot demand exceeding available supply. This structural tightness reflects ongoing geopolitical pressures, specifically fallout from the Iran conflict, which has disrupted regional supply chains and created regional supply concerns that have offset broader global economic worries tied to the conflict's macro impact.
Aluminum has capitalized on these supply dynamics, rallying roughly 15% since the conflict began and outperforming other industrial metals on a relative basis. However, broader metals sentiment remains mixed. LME copper three-month futures declined $67.75 to $13,288.50, reflecting softer demand expectations despite inflation-hedging interest. CME hot-rolled coil steel remained flat at $1,045, suggesting traders are balancing construction and manufacturing demand against economic uncertainty.
The convergence of contract expiration deadlines and tightening aluminum supply creates a focal point for institutional traders managing commodity exposure and hedging obligations through the end of April. Market participants should monitor delivery activity and roll spreads closely as April 28th approaches.
The metals complex is displaying significant supply-demand imbalances, particularly in aluminum. On April 24th, aluminum spot contracts were trading at steep premiums to forward-dated futures in a backwardation pattern—with one-day spreads reaching $18-per-ton premiums, the highest level in two years. Three-month spreads have surged toward 19-year highs, signaling acute spot demand exceeding available supply. This structural tightness reflects ongoing geopolitical pressures, specifically fallout from the Iran conflict, which has disrupted regional supply chains and created regional supply concerns that have offset broader global economic worries tied to the conflict's macro impact.
Aluminum has capitalized on these supply dynamics, rallying roughly 15% since the conflict began and outperforming other industrial metals on a relative basis. However, broader metals sentiment remains mixed. LME copper three-month futures declined $67.75 to $13,288.50, reflecting softer demand expectations despite inflation-hedging interest. CME hot-rolled coil steel remained flat at $1,045, suggesting traders are balancing construction and manufacturing demand against economic uncertainty.
The convergence of contract expiration deadlines and tightening aluminum supply creates a focal point for institutional traders managing commodity exposure and hedging obligations through the end of April. Market participants should monitor delivery activity and roll spreads closely as April 28th approaches.
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