Key Takeaways
- • Equitile M3 Fund has delivered +40.71% year-to-date returns through February 28, 2026, following a +108.79% gain in 2025, establishing it as Europe's most closely watched hedge fund and validating its long gold, long commodities, and fiscal unwind thesis that has concentrated exposure to gold mining equities.
- • Directional macro, systematic trend-following, and Asia equity strategies are outperforming in early 2026, while carbon plays, digital assets, and certain concentrated equity strategies face headwinds, according to HSBC's Hedge Weekly analysis covering 400+ funds.
- • Gold mining equities have been the primary driver of outperformance, with the FTSE Global All Cap Precious Metals and Mining Index gaining 86% in 2025, Newmont surging over 167%, and Barrick Mining up more than 182% as gold broke above $4,000 per ounce.
- • China-focused hedge funds are experiencing renewed investor interest, with 9% of allocators invested in China-focused funds in 2025 and a further 14% planning allocation increases in 2026, supporting the broader trend-following and value-hunting narrative.
- • TCI Fund Management's Chris Hohn earned a record $4.9 billion in 2025 with his fund returning 27.8%, managing over $77 billion and ranking as the top individual earner in the hedge fund industry for the second time in three years.
Summary
The hedge fund industry has entered 2026 with a pronounced bifurcation in performance, with early returns clearly separating winners from losers across strategy types. According to HSBC's Hedge Weekly (No. 11), which covers a universe of more than 400 funds, the first ten weeks of 2026 reveal a consistent pattern: directional macro strategies, systematic trend-following approaches, and Asia-focused equity funds are delivering strong returns, while carbon-related plays, digital assets, and concentrated equity strategies have struggled. This divergence reflects shifting macro conditions and investor preferences that have crystallized through the end of 2025.
The standout performer of early 2026 is George Cooper's Equitile M3 Fund, which posted a remarkable +40.71% year-to-date return through February 28, extending an extraordinary bull run that includes a +108.79% gain in 2025 and +13.92% in 2024. Cooper, a former Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank economist with published expertise in asset price cycles and monetary theory, has articulated a consistent thesis centered on long gold, long commodities, and a long position in the fiscal unwind trade. This concentrated macro framework has translated into significant exposure to gold mining equities, a sector that experienced explosive growth in 2025. The FTSE Global All Cap Precious Metals and Mining Index surged 86% for the year, with individual constituents delivering even more dramatic gains: Newmont (NEM) returned over 167% and Barrick Mining (GOLD) gained more than 182%, as gold prices broke above $4,000 per ounce. M3's leverage and willingness to maintain concentrated positions have amplified both volatility and returns for investors who maintained their holdings.
Beyond M3, China-focused hedge funds have captured renewed institutional attention as part of the broader trend-following narrative. Data indicates that 9% of allocators were invested in China-focused hedge funds in 2025, with 14% additional allocators planning to increase China exposure during 2026. The Greater China Equities Hedge Fund Index delivered a 15% gain in the first half of 2025, outpacing many traditional hedge fund benchmarks and reflecting both the value-hunting thesis and the recovering macro backdrop for Asian equities.
At the broader industry level, TCI Fund Management's Chris Hohn has emerged as the top earner in the hedge fund space, garnering a record $4.9 billion in personal earnings in 2025 as his fund returned 27.8% and assets under management surpassed $77 billion. This marks the second time in three years that Hohn has topped individual earner rankings, underscoring the substantial returns available to managers executing well-timed directional strategies during favorable macro cycles.
The standout performer of early 2026 is George Cooper's Equitile M3 Fund, which posted a remarkable +40.71% year-to-date return through February 28, extending an extraordinary bull run that includes a +108.79% gain in 2025 and +13.92% in 2024. Cooper, a former Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank economist with published expertise in asset price cycles and monetary theory, has articulated a consistent thesis centered on long gold, long commodities, and a long position in the fiscal unwind trade. This concentrated macro framework has translated into significant exposure to gold mining equities, a sector that experienced explosive growth in 2025. The FTSE Global All Cap Precious Metals and Mining Index surged 86% for the year, with individual constituents delivering even more dramatic gains: Newmont (NEM) returned over 167% and Barrick Mining (GOLD) gained more than 182%, as gold prices broke above $4,000 per ounce. M3's leverage and willingness to maintain concentrated positions have amplified both volatility and returns for investors who maintained their holdings.
Beyond M3, China-focused hedge funds have captured renewed institutional attention as part of the broader trend-following narrative. Data indicates that 9% of allocators were invested in China-focused hedge funds in 2025, with 14% additional allocators planning to increase China exposure during 2026. The Greater China Equities Hedge Fund Index delivered a 15% gain in the first half of 2025, outpacing many traditional hedge fund benchmarks and reflecting both the value-hunting thesis and the recovering macro backdrop for Asian equities.
At the broader industry level, TCI Fund Management's Chris Hohn has emerged as the top earner in the hedge fund space, garnering a record $4.9 billion in personal earnings in 2025 as his fund returned 27.8% and assets under management surpassed $77 billion. This marks the second time in three years that Hohn has topped individual earner rankings, underscoring the substantial returns available to managers executing well-timed directional strategies during favorable macro cycles.
Go deeper than the headline
Research every firm in this story, track the ones that matter and get the daily briefing — free for 7 days.