Key Takeaways
- • Corn posted modest weekly gains despite Thursday pullback, with December contracts up 3¾ cents on the week; 94% of the US crop emerged by June 14 with condition ratings improving 1 percentage point to 68% good/excellent, signaling stabilization after recent weakness.
- • Wheat complex rallied sharply with Chicago SRW July futures up 21¼ cents, while KC wheat gained 9½ cents and Minneapolis spring wheat rose 4¾ cents on the short week; 25% of winter wheat harvested and spring wheat 95% emerged with improving crop conditions.
- • Old crop corn export commitments reached 99% of USDA projection at 83.924 million metric tons, ahead of the previous three years' pace; new crop soybean export sales at 99% completion (40.584 MMT) signals strong demand ahead of 2026/27 marketing year.
- • Livestock markets showed divergent strength: live cattle August futures up $5.45 with wholesale Choice boxes at $393.92/cwt, while hog July contracts declined $2.42 on weak seasonal demand and pork carcass cutout fell $3.69/cwt to $93.71.
- • Ethanol production declined 6,000 barrels per day to 1.102 million bpd in the week of June 12, with stocks climbing 22,000 barrels to 24.474 million barrels; cotton rebounded 311 points with 86% of crop planted and adjusted world price at 62.37 cents/lb.
Summary
Agricultural commodity markets demonstrated modest bullish momentum this week despite being shortened by the Juneteenth federal holiday on Friday. The grain complex showed tentative signs of stabilization after recent volatility, though Thursday's session tempered optimism heading into the long weekend. Corn led the recovery with a 4¾-cent weekly gain, while December contracts bounced back 3¾ cents. Crop Progress data released Monday indicated 94% of the US corn crop had emerged by June 14, with condition ratings improving 1 percentage point to 68% good/excellent—a shift the Brugler500 index reflected with a 1-point advance to 373. Despite the positive agronomic backdrop, ethanol production slipped 6,000 barrels per day to 1.102 million bpd in the week ending June 12, though ethanol stocks rose 22,000 barrels to 24.474 million barrels.
The wheat complex demonstrated stronger price action, with Chicago soft red winter July futures gaining 21¼ cents on the shortened week—the largest component of the grain rally. Kansas City wheat July contracts advanced 9½ cents, while Minneapolis spring wheat rose more modestly at 4¾ cents. NASS Crop Progress data showed only 25% of the US winter wheat crop harvested by mid-week, with condition ratings improving 2 percentage points to 27% good/excellent. Spring wheat conditions were notably stronger, with 95% emergence and 6% of the crop headed; condition ratings jumped 3 percentage points to 55% good/excellent, translating to a 352 rating on the Brugler500 index, up 2 points from the prior week.
Soybean markets showed marginal strength, gaining 9½ cents primarily on Tuesday's rumor-driven Chinese inquiry buying, though Wednesday and Thursday sessions saw profit-taking. New crop export sales momentum remained solid with 564,000 metric tons of 2026/27 business confirmed, while total new crop commitments reached 99% of the USDA projection at 40.584 million metric tons—1 percentage point ahead of last year's pace. The NOPA crush report from Monday indicated 208.785 million bushels processed in May, representing 8.27% growth year-over-year, while soybean oil stocks declined 10.9% month-over-month to 1.735 billion pounds. Crop Progress data reported the US soybean crop at 95% planted with 88% emergence, and condition ratings ticked up 1 percentage point to 66% good/excellent.
Live cattle markets posted modest strength with August futures up $5.45 on the week, though cash trade remained slow with bids near $254 by Thursday. Wholesale boxed beef prices firmed, with Choice boxes advancing $1.99/cwt to $393.92 and Select gaining $2.03/cwt to $374.75, maintaining the Choice/Select spread at $19.17. USDA Cattle on Feed data revealed May placements down 9.7% year-over-year and June 1 inventory 2.09% larger than 2025 levels at 11.682 million head. Hog markets, by contrast, struggled to find seasonal support with July contracts declining $2.42 on the week; the CME Lean Hog Index fell 57 cents to $92.43 by June 16. The USDA Pork Carcass Cutout weakness persisted, dropping $3.69/cwt to $93.71, with the butt primal down $18.05. Export sales reached historic lows for 2026, with pork sales at 16,123 metric tons and shipments at 29,962 metric tons—the weakest weekly totals of the year.
Cotton rebounded with July futures advancing 311 points, supported by Crop Progress data showing 86% of the US crop planted with 19% squared. Condition ratings declined 2 percentage points to 51% good/excellent, though the Brugler500 index improved 1 point to 346. Export Sales for the week ending June 4 totaled 177,098 running bales for old crop and 188,395 running bales for new crop, with shipments at 250,964 running bales. The Adjusted World Price recovered 111 points to 62.37 cents/pound on Thursday.
The wheat complex demonstrated stronger price action, with Chicago soft red winter July futures gaining 21¼ cents on the shortened week—the largest component of the grain rally. Kansas City wheat July contracts advanced 9½ cents, while Minneapolis spring wheat rose more modestly at 4¾ cents. NASS Crop Progress data showed only 25% of the US winter wheat crop harvested by mid-week, with condition ratings improving 2 percentage points to 27% good/excellent. Spring wheat conditions were notably stronger, with 95% emergence and 6% of the crop headed; condition ratings jumped 3 percentage points to 55% good/excellent, translating to a 352 rating on the Brugler500 index, up 2 points from the prior week.
Soybean markets showed marginal strength, gaining 9½ cents primarily on Tuesday's rumor-driven Chinese inquiry buying, though Wednesday and Thursday sessions saw profit-taking. New crop export sales momentum remained solid with 564,000 metric tons of 2026/27 business confirmed, while total new crop commitments reached 99% of the USDA projection at 40.584 million metric tons—1 percentage point ahead of last year's pace. The NOPA crush report from Monday indicated 208.785 million bushels processed in May, representing 8.27% growth year-over-year, while soybean oil stocks declined 10.9% month-over-month to 1.735 billion pounds. Crop Progress data reported the US soybean crop at 95% planted with 88% emergence, and condition ratings ticked up 1 percentage point to 66% good/excellent.
Live cattle markets posted modest strength with August futures up $5.45 on the week, though cash trade remained slow with bids near $254 by Thursday. Wholesale boxed beef prices firmed, with Choice boxes advancing $1.99/cwt to $393.92 and Select gaining $2.03/cwt to $374.75, maintaining the Choice/Select spread at $19.17. USDA Cattle on Feed data revealed May placements down 9.7% year-over-year and June 1 inventory 2.09% larger than 2025 levels at 11.682 million head. Hog markets, by contrast, struggled to find seasonal support with July contracts declining $2.42 on the week; the CME Lean Hog Index fell 57 cents to $92.43 by June 16. The USDA Pork Carcass Cutout weakness persisted, dropping $3.69/cwt to $93.71, with the butt primal down $18.05. Export sales reached historic lows for 2026, with pork sales at 16,123 metric tons and shipments at 29,962 metric tons—the weakest weekly totals of the year.
Cotton rebounded with July futures advancing 311 points, supported by Crop Progress data showing 86% of the US crop planted with 19% squared. Condition ratings declined 2 percentage points to 51% good/excellent, though the Brugler500 index improved 1 point to 346. Export Sales for the week ending June 4 totaled 177,098 running bales for old crop and 188,395 running bales for new crop, with shipments at 250,964 running bales. The Adjusted World Price recovered 111 points to 62.37 cents/pound on Thursday.
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