Key Takeaways
- • Cotton futures rose on October 29 despite harvest progress reaching 52% complete, with December support at 77.10 and resistance at 82.40 cents per pound, according to Jack Scoville's softs report.
- • USDA estimated US orange production at 61.7 million boxes, down from 63.5 million last year, with Florida production at 10.0 million boxes versus 13 million a year earlier.
- • Arabica coffee prices in New York were supported near term by quality concerns tied to excess El Nino-linked rains in Brazil, while Central American premiums reached or neared record highs due to drought.
- • Brazilian sugar production fell 41.6% in the first half of September due to excess rains, and higher petroleum prices are steering Brazilian refineries toward ethanol over sugar.
- • Cocoa futures fell as dry conditions in Ivory Coast raised concerns over 2026/27 production, although a large global surplus in 2025/26 keeps near-term supplies ample.
Summary
Cotton was higher on October 29 even as the harvest advanced, with the crop 52% harvested and 89% of bolls open, according to the softs report. USDA data cited in the report showed cotton conditions at 33% good to excellent. Forecasts call for dry weather and warm temperatures in Texas, the Delta, and the Southeast. December cotton support sits at 77.10, 75.50 and 74.80 cents, with resistance at 82.40, 84.00 and 85.30 cents, and chart trends are mixed.
FCOJ futures were lower and trend down on daily charts. USDA estimated US orange production at 61.7 million boxes versus 63.5 million last year, and Florida at 10.0 million boxes versus 13 million. Isolated showers have appeared in Florida, where trees are suffering from drought. Conditions are described as good in Mexico, and Brazil is entering its rainy season. January FCOJ support is at 134.00, 128.00 and 122.00, with resistance at 143.00, 149.00 and 151.00.
Coffee prices diverged, with New York higher and London lower, and both markets trending down on daily charts. Arabica was boosted near term by quality concerns linked to excess El Nino-related rains in Brazil, though the Brazilian wet season is viewed as good for next-crop development. Asian conditions are good to poor, with Indonesia too dry and Vietnam drying. Central America has been dry, pushing premiums to or near record highs. The ICO composite averaged 254.54 cents per pound. New York December support is 281.00 to 270.00 with resistance at 310.00 to 322.00.
Sugar prices rose in both New York and London yet remain in downtrends. Rains have returned to Brazil's center-south after a drought, but refineries are favoring ethanol, supported by higher world petroleum prices. Indian output fell after hot, dry conditions, and El Nino could hurt production elsewhere in Asia. Brazilian production dropped 41.6% in the first half of September due to excess rains.
Cocoa prices fell in New York and London, with daily trends turning lower. The West African main crop harvest is largely in, but dryness in Ivory Coast has raised concerns about 2026/27 output, and Ivorian farmers warned poor rainfall could end the main crop early. Demand has begun recovering after high prices last year, and production potential is reported to be rising in Asia and Central America.
FCOJ futures were lower and trend down on daily charts. USDA estimated US orange production at 61.7 million boxes versus 63.5 million last year, and Florida at 10.0 million boxes versus 13 million. Isolated showers have appeared in Florida, where trees are suffering from drought. Conditions are described as good in Mexico, and Brazil is entering its rainy season. January FCOJ support is at 134.00, 128.00 and 122.00, with resistance at 143.00, 149.00 and 151.00.
Coffee prices diverged, with New York higher and London lower, and both markets trending down on daily charts. Arabica was boosted near term by quality concerns linked to excess El Nino-related rains in Brazil, though the Brazilian wet season is viewed as good for next-crop development. Asian conditions are good to poor, with Indonesia too dry and Vietnam drying. Central America has been dry, pushing premiums to or near record highs. The ICO composite averaged 254.54 cents per pound. New York December support is 281.00 to 270.00 with resistance at 310.00 to 322.00.
Sugar prices rose in both New York and London yet remain in downtrends. Rains have returned to Brazil's center-south after a drought, but refineries are favoring ethanol, supported by higher world petroleum prices. Indian output fell after hot, dry conditions, and El Nino could hurt production elsewhere in Asia. Brazilian production dropped 41.6% in the first half of September due to excess rains.
Cocoa prices fell in New York and London, with daily trends turning lower. The West African main crop harvest is largely in, but dryness in Ivory Coast has raised concerns about 2026/27 output, and Ivorian farmers warned poor rainfall could end the main crop early. Demand has begun recovering after high prices last year, and production potential is reported to be rising in Asia and Central America.
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