Key Takeaways
- • Corn weakness drove by energy pullback: July corn fell 9 cents and December declined 5½ cents for the week, with crude oil declines cited as the primary driver; US planting remained ahead of historical pace at 38% as of April 26, matching the 5-year average.
- • Wheat complex corrected across all three markets: Minneapolis spring wheat led losses with a 25½-cent decline, while Kansas City and Chicago July contracts dropped 18¾ cents; winter wheat conditions improved 1% to 31% good/excellent, though poor/very poor ratings increased 2%.
- • Soybeans extended bounce with modest gains: July soybeans rose 4¾ cents and November gained 6¾ cents; planting at 33% by May 3 significantly exceeded the 23% five-year average, with export commitments at 38.92 MMT (93% of USDA projection).
- • Livestock markets showed mixed signals with cattle strength persisting: Live cattle June contracts retreated $4.10 for the week despite cash trade rally to $256–260 nationally; feeder cattle August fell $7.95 while CME Feeder Cattle Index climbed 80 cents week-over-week.
- • Cotton gained while hogs declined sharply: July cotton advanced 54 points with Adjusted World Price up 393 points to 69.59 cents/lb; lean hogs fell $2.65 in June contracts and CME Lean Hog Index dropped 39 cents to $91.02, with managed money reducing net long positions by 6,483 contracts.
Summary
Agricultural commodity markets experienced broad-based weakness during the week ending May 11, 2026, with grains, livestock, and protein markets retreating from recent strength. The primary driver of grain selling pressure was a pullback in energy markets, which historically correlate with agricultural futures. Corn led losses with July contracts down 9 cents and December declining 5½ cents for the week. Despite the price weakness, planting progress data released Monday showed US corn planted at 38% as of April 26, matching the five-year average pace and maintaining momentum from earlier weeks. Emergence reached 13%. The Energy Information Administration reported ethanol production recovering to 1.017 million barrels per day in the week of May 1, an 8,000 bpd increase, while ethanol stocks built by 139,000 barrels to 26.02 million barrels. Export commitments reached 77.06 million metric tons (92% of USDA projection), lagging the 94% historical average pace. March export volume totaled 8.03 MMT, marking the second-largest monthly export on record.
The wheat complex deteriorated across all three trading centers, with Minneapolis spring wheat leading the decline at 25½ cents lower for the week. Kansas City and Chicago July contracts each fell 18¾ cents. Crop Progress data showed 49% of the US winter wheat crop headed as of Monday, with conditions improving 1% to 31% good/excellent, though poor/very poor ratings increased another 2 percentage points. Spring wheat planting reached 32% of target. The Brugler500 crop condition index declined 1 point to 286. Oklahoma's annual wheat industry tour estimated the winter wheat harvest at 47.799 million bushels with yields of 23.11 bushels per acre. Weekly export sales totaled 78,772 metric tons of old crop and 187,538 MT for new crop in the week of April 30. Commitment of Traders data showed managed money flipping to a net short position of 20,567 contracts in CBT wheat, while Kansas City specs added 7,245 contracts to their net long.
Soybeans extended gains from the prior week, with July up 4¾ cents and November 6¾ cents higher, defying the broader weakness in grains. Planting progress accelerated to 33% by May 3, substantially ahead of the 23% five-year average. July soybean meal posted modest gains of 40 cents while May bean oil retreated 84 points. Export bookings remained conservative at 141,940 metric tons in the week ending April 30, with total commitments at 38.92 MMT (93% of USDA export projection), running 5 percentage points behind the five-year average pace. March census trade data showed 3.949 MMT of soybeans exported, up 12.89% year-over-year but down 5.87% from February. Spec traders added 36,335 contracts to their net long position, reaching 221,617 contracts.
Livestock markets exhibited divergent weakness, with cattle maintaining relative strength despite futures pullbacks. Live cattle June contracts fell $4.10 for the week, yet cash prices rallied to $256–260 across the country. Feeder cattle August dropped $7.95, while the CME Feeder Cattle Index gained 80 cents week-over-week to $374.83. Wholesale boxed beef prices remained elevated with Choice declining 72 cents per hundredweight to $388.39 and Select rising $2.04 to $385.01, maintaining a Choice/Select spread of $3.38. Weekly beef production declined 1.4% from the prior week and 3% year-over-year at 473.8 million pounds. Year-to-date production is down 6.9% on a 9.4% reduction in slaughter. APHIS reported 1,702 active cases of New World screwworm in Mexico as of May 8, with 4 cases in bordering Coahuila state and the closest case located 79 miles from the US border. Lean hogs deteriorated further, with June contracts falling $2.65 and the CME Lean Hog Index declining 39 cents to $91.02. USDA's Pork Carcass Cutout fell 3 cents to $97.56 per hundredweight. Cotton delivered the week's strongest performance, with July advancing 54 points and the Adjusted World Price rising 393 points to 69.59 cents per pound. Planting reached 21% by Sunday, 3 points ahead of normal, with export commitments at 10.82 million round bales (96% of USDA projection).
The wheat complex deteriorated across all three trading centers, with Minneapolis spring wheat leading the decline at 25½ cents lower for the week. Kansas City and Chicago July contracts each fell 18¾ cents. Crop Progress data showed 49% of the US winter wheat crop headed as of Monday, with conditions improving 1% to 31% good/excellent, though poor/very poor ratings increased another 2 percentage points. Spring wheat planting reached 32% of target. The Brugler500 crop condition index declined 1 point to 286. Oklahoma's annual wheat industry tour estimated the winter wheat harvest at 47.799 million bushels with yields of 23.11 bushels per acre. Weekly export sales totaled 78,772 metric tons of old crop and 187,538 MT for new crop in the week of April 30. Commitment of Traders data showed managed money flipping to a net short position of 20,567 contracts in CBT wheat, while Kansas City specs added 7,245 contracts to their net long.
Soybeans extended gains from the prior week, with July up 4¾ cents and November 6¾ cents higher, defying the broader weakness in grains. Planting progress accelerated to 33% by May 3, substantially ahead of the 23% five-year average. July soybean meal posted modest gains of 40 cents while May bean oil retreated 84 points. Export bookings remained conservative at 141,940 metric tons in the week ending April 30, with total commitments at 38.92 MMT (93% of USDA export projection), running 5 percentage points behind the five-year average pace. March census trade data showed 3.949 MMT of soybeans exported, up 12.89% year-over-year but down 5.87% from February. Spec traders added 36,335 contracts to their net long position, reaching 221,617 contracts.
Livestock markets exhibited divergent weakness, with cattle maintaining relative strength despite futures pullbacks. Live cattle June contracts fell $4.10 for the week, yet cash prices rallied to $256–260 across the country. Feeder cattle August dropped $7.95, while the CME Feeder Cattle Index gained 80 cents week-over-week to $374.83. Wholesale boxed beef prices remained elevated with Choice declining 72 cents per hundredweight to $388.39 and Select rising $2.04 to $385.01, maintaining a Choice/Select spread of $3.38. Weekly beef production declined 1.4% from the prior week and 3% year-over-year at 473.8 million pounds. Year-to-date production is down 6.9% on a 9.4% reduction in slaughter. APHIS reported 1,702 active cases of New World screwworm in Mexico as of May 8, with 4 cases in bordering Coahuila state and the closest case located 79 miles from the US border. Lean hogs deteriorated further, with June contracts falling $2.65 and the CME Lean Hog Index declining 39 cents to $91.02. USDA's Pork Carcass Cutout fell 3 cents to $97.56 per hundredweight. Cotton delivered the week's strongest performance, with July advancing 54 points and the Adjusted World Price rising 393 points to 69.59 cents per pound. Planting reached 21% by Sunday, 3 points ahead of normal, with export commitments at 10.82 million round bales (96% of USDA projection).
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