Key Takeaways
- • Gold settled near $4,030 (down about $84), silver fell about $1.47 to roughly $51.23, copper lost about 11 cents to about $6.23, and January platinum dropped about $23 to near $1,538 after a hot October CPI report on the prior session, according to Phil Flynn's Manic Metals Report.
- • October CPI rose 0.4% versus 0.3% expected, and core CPI rose 0.3% versus a 0.2% forecast, the third straight month of 0.3% core inflation.
- • Futures markets priced roughly an 88% chance of a quarter-point Fed hike at the Dec. 8–9 meeting and a 12% chance of a half-point hike, with the 10-year Treasury yield pushing toward 4.94%.
- • Central bank buying remains a key support: the World Gold Council reported 321 tonnes bought in Q3 2026, up 42% year over year, and China added 26 tonnes in October to reach 2,435 tonnes.
- • The Producer Price Index release on Friday at 7:30 AM Central is the next inflation test, since no economic data or bond trading occurred on Veterans Day.
Summary
Metals reversed sharply on November 11, 2026 after a hotter-than-expected inflation print on the prior session. Gold, silver, copper and platinum fell on December futures after October CPI rose 0.4% against expectations of 0.3%, and core prices rose 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast. Palladium was nearly unchanged. By early morning trading at 4:24 AM Central, December gold was at $4,057.40 (up $27.20), December silver at $52.975 (up $1.75), December copper at $6.30 (up 6.5 cents), January platinum at $1,567.50 (up $29.10) and December palladium at $1,085.50 (up $64.70), per the Manic Metals Report.
The inflation data raised the prospect of tighter Fed policy. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said a 0.3% core reading would put a half-point hike in play, warning that a quarter-point move would put the Fed's credibility at risk. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said the Fed may need to move more rapidly and wants at least another half point of hikes before pausing. Futures markets priced roughly an 88% probability of a 25-basis-point increase at the Dec. 8–9 meeting. The 10-year Treasury yield approached 4.94% and the dollar firmed, a combination that weighs on non-yielding metals.
Central bank demand offers offsetting support. According to Kitco News, citing the World Gold Council's Krishan Gopaul, China bought 26 tonnes of gold in October, lifting official holdings to 2,435 tonnes. The Czech National Bank added 2.5 tonnes to reach 90 tonnes, Uzbekistan bought 7 tonnes, and Poland's central bank bought an estimated 27 tonnes to reach its 700-tonne target. The World Gold Council reported that central banks bought 321 tonnes in the third quarter, up 42% from a year earlier and well above the five-year quarterly average of 227 tonnes, and expects demand to remain firm in Q4. The council said buying tends to increase when prices fall, though it stopped short of describing a firm price floor. A Fed view that gold reserve repatriations do not indicate de-dollarization was also cited as a counterpoint.
In platinum, the World Platinum Investment Council forecasts a deficit of 283,000 ounces in the second half of 2026 and a full-year deficit in 2027, after a first-half surplus driven mainly by ETF selling. China's net platinum imports reached 1.85 million ounces by August, and the council cited emerging AI-related demand in glass, electronics and crucibles. In palladium, Heraeus forecasts a 2026 deficit of 345,000 ounces and a roughly 4% decline in global mine supply, while Johnson Matthey projects a surplus due to soft auto demand.
The next catalyst is the Producer Price Index release on Friday at 7:30 AM Central.
The inflation data raised the prospect of tighter Fed policy. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said a 0.3% core reading would put a half-point hike in play, warning that a quarter-point move would put the Fed's credibility at risk. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said the Fed may need to move more rapidly and wants at least another half point of hikes before pausing. Futures markets priced roughly an 88% probability of a 25-basis-point increase at the Dec. 8–9 meeting. The 10-year Treasury yield approached 4.94% and the dollar firmed, a combination that weighs on non-yielding metals.
Central bank demand offers offsetting support. According to Kitco News, citing the World Gold Council's Krishan Gopaul, China bought 26 tonnes of gold in October, lifting official holdings to 2,435 tonnes. The Czech National Bank added 2.5 tonnes to reach 90 tonnes, Uzbekistan bought 7 tonnes, and Poland's central bank bought an estimated 27 tonnes to reach its 700-tonne target. The World Gold Council reported that central banks bought 321 tonnes in the third quarter, up 42% from a year earlier and well above the five-year quarterly average of 227 tonnes, and expects demand to remain firm in Q4. The council said buying tends to increase when prices fall, though it stopped short of describing a firm price floor. A Fed view that gold reserve repatriations do not indicate de-dollarization was also cited as a counterpoint.
In platinum, the World Platinum Investment Council forecasts a deficit of 283,000 ounces in the second half of 2026 and a full-year deficit in 2027, after a first-half surplus driven mainly by ETF selling. China's net platinum imports reached 1.85 million ounces by August, and the council cited emerging AI-related demand in glass, electronics and crucibles. In palladium, Heraeus forecasts a 2026 deficit of 345,000 ounces and a roughly 4% decline in global mine supply, while Johnson Matthey projects a surplus due to soft auto demand.
The next catalyst is the Producer Price Index release on Friday at 7:30 AM Central.
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