Key Takeaways
- • Dechert's recap of its 11th annual Private Credit Summit in New York, held earlier in summer 2026, highlights five themes shaping the industry: investment-grade private credit, secondaries, GP stakes, consolidation, and software credit.
- • Panelists described investment-grade private credit as the defining growth frontier for the largest platforms, with managers focused on corporate direct lending capturing roughly $2 trillion of a more than tenfold addressable opportunity once securitizable cash flows are included.
- • Private credit secondary market volume has effectively doubled year-over-year to approximately $20 billion, driven by LP liquidity needs, GP continuation vehicles and retail redemption recycling.
- • The top 10 interval fund managers control roughly 75% of the market while the next 300 control 25%, and panelists expect inorganic activity among smaller platforms to accelerate over the next two to three years.
- • Panelists said software credit is structurally safer than headlines suggest, with senior secured lenders at three-to-five times EBITDA, though a significant concentration of software debt matures around 2028.
Summary
Dechert published highlights from its 11th annual Private Credit Summit in New York, held earlier this summer, ahead of its second annual Private Credit Summit in London on September 17. The article frames the industry as facing new headwinds from regulators, the media and other sources after years of outsized growth. The event was emceed by Sonali Basak, chief investment strategist at iCapital and a former Bloomberg reporter.
On investment-grade private credit, panelists argued the asset class has moved from a niche insurance conversation to the defining growth frontier for the largest platforms. According to the summit, managers focused on corporate direct lending capture roughly $2 trillion of an opportunity more than ten times larger once contractual securitizable cash flows are included. Panelists also cited geopolitical defense spending and insurance capital deployment as drivers, and described a coming bifurcation between platforms with end-to-end origination capability and sub-investment-grade specialists.
Private credit secondaries were among the most discussed opportunities. Panelists tied growth to a DPI shortfall across private equity, with the median 2021 PE fund having returned minimal DPI, and to elevated redemption pressure on retail credit vehicles. Secondary volume has effectively doubled year over year to about $20 billion, according to the article. Panelists noted that buyers of private credit secondaries underwrite known loans rather than blind pools, giving incumbents an advantage. The near-term risk identified is that rapid capital inflows could compress pricing before the market matures.
On GP stakes and NAV-based lending, panelists described these as core liquidity solutions for sponsors that are asset-rich and cash-poor. They characterized the traditional LP re-up model as under stress, with rated feeders, sovereign co-investments and portfolio sales increasingly replacing it. A watch item was reallocation by Gulf sovereign wealth funds toward domestic deployment, though panelists said timing remains uncertain.
On consolidation, panelists said scale pressures are becoming more pronounced given retail redemption pressure, rising operational costs and technology requirements. The article cites the top 10 interval fund managers controlling roughly 75% of the market, while the next 300 control 25%. Running a compliant platform requires organizations of several hundred people, largely in accounting, finance, legal and compliance. Panelists expect inorganic activity to accelerate among smaller and mid-sized managers over the next two to three years.
On software credit, panelists said the press narrative of a "SaaSocalypse" has driven indiscriminate selling of software loan exposure, even where credits perform well. Figures cited at the program put senior secured lenders at three-to-five times EBITDA on most software credits, while private equity sponsors are marked at 20-plus times. Panelists warned that a significant concentration of software debt matures around 2028, as AI disruption is expected to intensify, and that large managers signaling reduced software exposure could constrain refinancing. Panelists expect software credit to shift over the next 12 to 18 months from a source of headline fear to opportunistic deal flow for specialists.
On investment-grade private credit, panelists argued the asset class has moved from a niche insurance conversation to the defining growth frontier for the largest platforms. According to the summit, managers focused on corporate direct lending capture roughly $2 trillion of an opportunity more than ten times larger once contractual securitizable cash flows are included. Panelists also cited geopolitical defense spending and insurance capital deployment as drivers, and described a coming bifurcation between platforms with end-to-end origination capability and sub-investment-grade specialists.
Private credit secondaries were among the most discussed opportunities. Panelists tied growth to a DPI shortfall across private equity, with the median 2021 PE fund having returned minimal DPI, and to elevated redemption pressure on retail credit vehicles. Secondary volume has effectively doubled year over year to about $20 billion, according to the article. Panelists noted that buyers of private credit secondaries underwrite known loans rather than blind pools, giving incumbents an advantage. The near-term risk identified is that rapid capital inflows could compress pricing before the market matures.
On GP stakes and NAV-based lending, panelists described these as core liquidity solutions for sponsors that are asset-rich and cash-poor. They characterized the traditional LP re-up model as under stress, with rated feeders, sovereign co-investments and portfolio sales increasingly replacing it. A watch item was reallocation by Gulf sovereign wealth funds toward domestic deployment, though panelists said timing remains uncertain.
On consolidation, panelists said scale pressures are becoming more pronounced given retail redemption pressure, rising operational costs and technology requirements. The article cites the top 10 interval fund managers controlling roughly 75% of the market, while the next 300 control 25%. Running a compliant platform requires organizations of several hundred people, largely in accounting, finance, legal and compliance. Panelists expect inorganic activity to accelerate among smaller and mid-sized managers over the next two to three years.
On software credit, panelists said the press narrative of a "SaaSocalypse" has driven indiscriminate selling of software loan exposure, even where credits perform well. Figures cited at the program put senior secured lenders at three-to-five times EBITDA on most software credits, while private equity sponsors are marked at 20-plus times. Panelists warned that a significant concentration of software debt matures around 2028, as AI disruption is expected to intensify, and that large managers signaling reduced software exposure could constrain refinancing. Panelists expect software credit to shift over the next 12 to 18 months from a source of headline fear to opportunistic deal flow for specialists.
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