Key Takeaways
- • Bloomberg Intelligence's fall 2026 private credit survey of 150 finance professionals (conducted September 14-29, 2026) finds 72% of respondents expect private credit deployment to rise over the next 12 months, while investors are markedly more cautious than fund managers.
- • Twelve percent of investors now expect deployment to decline, up from zero in the April 2026 survey, and 56% of investors expect spread premiums of 100 basis points or less over broadly syndicated loans, versus 20% six months earlier.
- • 52% of investors now expect a multiyear or structural retail wealth-flow slowdown, up from 34% six months ago, even as 62% of all respondents call the slowdown temporary.
- • Asset-backed finance is the top emerging opportunity (38% of respondents, up from 29%), and AI infrastructure financing is seen as a $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion opportunity over five years, concentrated among the largest managers.
- • Bank competition has emerged as a fast-rising risk, cited by 20% of respondents versus 1% in April 2026, while 53% now view private credit marks as consistent with underlying value.
Summary
Bloomberg Intelligence's fifth semi-annual private credit survey, authored by analysts Paul Gulberg, David Havens and Michael Kaye, finds that demand for private credit remains durable even as a widening divide opens between fund managers and the investors who allocate capital. The survey, conducted between September 14 and 29, 2026, drew 150 finance professionals. According to the report, 72% of respondents expect private credit deployment to increase over the next 12 months and 66% anticipate institutional fundraising to rise. Nearly 80% expect returns to match or exceed historical levels, which the report places at roughly 9-10% gross, unlevered annualized for direct lending.
Beneath those headline figures, investors and limited partners are considerably more cautious than the managers and lenders running the products. Twelve percent of investors now expect deployment to decline, up from zero in April 2026, and only 18% expect a significant increase compared with 28% of fund managers. On spreads, 56% of investors expect premiums of 100 basis points or less over broadly syndicated loans, up sharply from 20% six months earlier, while 78% of fund managers expect premiums of 200 basis points or more. The report states that investors and limited partners are generally more cautious than fund managers and lenders, particularly on deployment, spreads and the duration of the wealth-flow slowdown.
In the retail channel, 57% of respondents expect wealth and retail allocations to increase over the next year, with only 12% expecting a decrease. Banks and lenders were most optimistic at roughly 60%, followed by fund managers at 58% and investors at 54%. Sixty-two percent of respondents view the current retail wealth-flow slowdown as temporary, up from 58% in April, but 52% of investors expect a multiyear or structural slowdown, up from 34%.
Asset-backed finance (ABF) emerged as the clearest area of consensus, identified by 38% of respondents as the greatest emerging opportunity, up from 29% roughly six months earlier. Respondents project private credit could replace about 15% of traditional fixed-income investment over the medium term, with ABF accounting for around 20% of that displacement. The report cites insurance-related structured transactions and data center funding as supporting ABF momentum.
According to the report, private capital, predominantly credit, could fund $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion of AI infrastructure build-out over five years, based on Bloomberg Intelligence's Data Center Model, which estimates total AI infrastructure spending of about $9 trillion. About 41% of respondents see AI and data-center financing as a meaningful opportunity, though the report notes it is concentrated among the largest managers, including Blackstone, Apollo and Ares. Power generation and transmission was seen as the primary lending opportunity by 37% of respondents.
On risk, bank competition rose from 1% of respondents in April 2026 to 20% in September, while credit quality deterioration (28%) and macroeconomic and rate instability (21%) ranked higher. Seventy percent expect private credit default rates to reach 5-10% in a serious downturn. Valuation confidence improved markedly: 53% now view marks as consistent with underlying value, including 19% who believe marks are understated, compared with April 2026 when 72% viewed marks as overstated to varying degrees. The report concludes that the asset class remains institutionally supported and structurally growing, but that the gap between manager and investor views on spreads, deployment and the duration of the retail slowdown is the key signal to watch.
Beneath those headline figures, investors and limited partners are considerably more cautious than the managers and lenders running the products. Twelve percent of investors now expect deployment to decline, up from zero in April 2026, and only 18% expect a significant increase compared with 28% of fund managers. On spreads, 56% of investors expect premiums of 100 basis points or less over broadly syndicated loans, up sharply from 20% six months earlier, while 78% of fund managers expect premiums of 200 basis points or more. The report states that investors and limited partners are generally more cautious than fund managers and lenders, particularly on deployment, spreads and the duration of the wealth-flow slowdown.
In the retail channel, 57% of respondents expect wealth and retail allocations to increase over the next year, with only 12% expecting a decrease. Banks and lenders were most optimistic at roughly 60%, followed by fund managers at 58% and investors at 54%. Sixty-two percent of respondents view the current retail wealth-flow slowdown as temporary, up from 58% in April, but 52% of investors expect a multiyear or structural slowdown, up from 34%.
Asset-backed finance (ABF) emerged as the clearest area of consensus, identified by 38% of respondents as the greatest emerging opportunity, up from 29% roughly six months earlier. Respondents project private credit could replace about 15% of traditional fixed-income investment over the medium term, with ABF accounting for around 20% of that displacement. The report cites insurance-related structured transactions and data center funding as supporting ABF momentum.
According to the report, private capital, predominantly credit, could fund $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion of AI infrastructure build-out over five years, based on Bloomberg Intelligence's Data Center Model, which estimates total AI infrastructure spending of about $9 trillion. About 41% of respondents see AI and data-center financing as a meaningful opportunity, though the report notes it is concentrated among the largest managers, including Blackstone, Apollo and Ares. Power generation and transmission was seen as the primary lending opportunity by 37% of respondents.
On risk, bank competition rose from 1% of respondents in April 2026 to 20% in September, while credit quality deterioration (28%) and macroeconomic and rate instability (21%) ranked higher. Seventy percent expect private credit default rates to reach 5-10% in a serious downturn. Valuation confidence improved markedly: 53% now view marks as consistent with underlying value, including 19% who believe marks are understated, compared with April 2026 when 72% viewed marks as overstated to varying degrees. The report concludes that the asset class remains institutionally supported and structurally growing, but that the gap between manager and investor views on spreads, deployment and the duration of the retail slowdown is the key signal to watch.
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