Key Takeaways
- • Natixis CIB hosted the fourth edition of its Private Debt Forum in London on 20 July 2026, the first edition held outside Paris, with banking, asset management and institutional investing participants.
- • Forum discussions cited a private credit market estimated at $40 trillion, with non-bank led direct lending accounting for an estimated $2-3 trillion.
- • Panellists described the market as defined by divergence and increasing sophistication, with manager selection expected to grow in importance as refinancing risks and maturity walls build.
- • Continuation vehicles reached around $250 billion last year, roughly 1.5x growth versus 2024, as sponsors and LPs seek liquidity amid slower M&A and IPO activity.
- • Speakers flagged asset-backed finance, mid-market non-sponsored lending in Europe, and insurance-oriented structures as areas of growing opportunity.
Summary
Natixis CIB recently hosted the fourth edition of its Private Debt Forum in London, the first edition held outside Paris. According to the publication, the forum brought together experts from banking, asset management and institutional investing to discuss how private debt is becoming an increasingly important part of the global financing ecosystem. Opening the event, Michael Haize, Global Head of Global Markets at Natixis CIB, said the asset class is defined less by rapid expansion than by growing sophistication, with investors seeking differentiated opportunities across direct lending, asset-backed finance, infrastructure and other private credit strategies. Discussions referenced a private credit market estimated at $40 trillion, of which non-bank led direct lending accounts for an estimated $2-3 trillion.
A recurring theme was that capital remains abundant but opportunities are more selective. In a fireside conversation between Khalid Krim, Global Head of FIG Coverage at Natixis CIB, and Hamza Lemssouguer, Founder and CIO of Arini, participants stressed independent thinking, rigorous fundamental analysis and downside protection over chasing consensus sectors. On the European market, participants saw growing opportunity in less crowded areas, particularly mid-market non-sponsored businesses and asset-backed finance, as structural changes in European banking, including continued de-banking, create new financing needs.
In the first panel, moderated by Mathilde Boyez of Natixis CIB and featuring representatives of CPP Investments, PIMCO and Ares Management, panellists said the market is characterised by divergence rather than uniform performance. Higher financing costs have sharpened focus on credit quality, and refinancing risks and upcoming maturity walls are expected to make manager selection more important over the coming years. The panel expected current market noise to clear over the next two to three quarters. Artificial intelligence was also highlighted as a driver of digital infrastructure investment and financing demand, while introducing new uncertainties for credit analysis.
A second panel, moderated by Eric Elbaz of Natixis CIB and including representatives of USS, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Blue Owl, PIMCO and PGIM, focused on capital formation. Panellists discussed semi-liquid vehicles and rated feeder structures aimed at broader investor bases. They described continuation vehicles, which reached around $250 billion last year, as a liquidity tool rather than a sign of distress, provided valuation and structural transparency is maintained. Insurance capital was a further focus, with participants noting the need for simpler structures and flagging the scalability limits and reliance on external rating agencies of securitisation-style techniques. Transparency, governance and liquidity management were identified as critical as private credit reaches a wider investor base.
A keynote by Alain Durré, Managing Director and Chief European Economist at Natixis CIB, featured Dr. Catherine L. Mann, External Member of the Monetary Policy Committee at the Bank of England, who discussed research showing firms are less anchored to short-term inflation expectations than previously assumed and that monetary policy transmission is faster than understood, with firms revising price expectations within days of a Bank Rate decision. Dr. Mann said upside risks to UK CPI inflation into 2027 currently outweigh downside risks to activity, and described AI's short-term demand and pricing effects as relatively clear but its longer-term employment effects as far less certain. The forum concluded with remarks from Elie Bitton, Global Head of Sales & Structuring at Natixis CIB.
A recurring theme was that capital remains abundant but opportunities are more selective. In a fireside conversation between Khalid Krim, Global Head of FIG Coverage at Natixis CIB, and Hamza Lemssouguer, Founder and CIO of Arini, participants stressed independent thinking, rigorous fundamental analysis and downside protection over chasing consensus sectors. On the European market, participants saw growing opportunity in less crowded areas, particularly mid-market non-sponsored businesses and asset-backed finance, as structural changes in European banking, including continued de-banking, create new financing needs.
In the first panel, moderated by Mathilde Boyez of Natixis CIB and featuring representatives of CPP Investments, PIMCO and Ares Management, panellists said the market is characterised by divergence rather than uniform performance. Higher financing costs have sharpened focus on credit quality, and refinancing risks and upcoming maturity walls are expected to make manager selection more important over the coming years. The panel expected current market noise to clear over the next two to three quarters. Artificial intelligence was also highlighted as a driver of digital infrastructure investment and financing demand, while introducing new uncertainties for credit analysis.
A second panel, moderated by Eric Elbaz of Natixis CIB and including representatives of USS, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Blue Owl, PIMCO and PGIM, focused on capital formation. Panellists discussed semi-liquid vehicles and rated feeder structures aimed at broader investor bases. They described continuation vehicles, which reached around $250 billion last year, as a liquidity tool rather than a sign of distress, provided valuation and structural transparency is maintained. Insurance capital was a further focus, with participants noting the need for simpler structures and flagging the scalability limits and reliance on external rating agencies of securitisation-style techniques. Transparency, governance and liquidity management were identified as critical as private credit reaches a wider investor base.
A keynote by Alain Durré, Managing Director and Chief European Economist at Natixis CIB, featured Dr. Catherine L. Mann, External Member of the Monetary Policy Committee at the Bank of England, who discussed research showing firms are less anchored to short-term inflation expectations than previously assumed and that monetary policy transmission is faster than understood, with firms revising price expectations within days of a Bank Rate decision. Dr. Mann said upside risks to UK CPI inflation into 2027 currently outweigh downside risks to activity, and described AI's short-term demand and pricing effects as relatively clear but its longer-term employment effects as far less certain. The forum concluded with remarks from Elie Bitton, Global Head of Sales & Structuring at Natixis CIB.
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