Key Takeaways
- • U.S. commercial real estate investment reached $250.3 billion in H1 2026, up 21% year over year, according to Alvarez & Marsal's H1 2026 recap.
- • The office recovery is uneven: prime buildings are gaining tenants while older stock continues to lag.
- • The Federal Reserve raised rates 25 basis points in September 2026, its first hike in three years, adding pressure to CRE financing and valuations.
- • Artificial intelligence is reshaping data center development, with power availability now driving site selection.
Summary
U.S. commercial real estate (CRE) investment totaled $250.3 billion in the first half of 2026, up 21% year over year, according to a recap report from Alvarez & Marsal (A&M) Real Estate Advisory Services. The report notes that lending grew, securitization activity picked up, and office vacancy declined over the period, signaling a broad rebound in deal activity and capital markets engagement.
The report tracks deal activity, capital markets, and operating fundamentals across six asset classes and looks ahead to 2027. Its data draws on sources including CBRE, KBRA, the Mortgage Bankers Association, Nareit, and RBC Wealth Management, supplemented by A&M's own analysis.
The office sector recovery is uneven. Prime buildings are attracting tenants, while older, lower-quality properties continue to lag. This bifurcation is a key consideration for investors evaluating office exposure, as asset quality increasingly determines leasing performance.
Rate policy remains a headwind. The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points in September 2026, its first increase in three years. A&M also cites tariffs and geopolitical risk as factors complicating the outlook for borrowers and investors.
In data centers, A&M reports that artificial intelligence is changing site selection, with power availability now a primary driver. The report frames these trends as the basis for its outlook into 2027, with asset-class-level metrics available in the full report.
The report tracks deal activity, capital markets, and operating fundamentals across six asset classes and looks ahead to 2027. Its data draws on sources including CBRE, KBRA, the Mortgage Bankers Association, Nareit, and RBC Wealth Management, supplemented by A&M's own analysis.
The office sector recovery is uneven. Prime buildings are attracting tenants, while older, lower-quality properties continue to lag. This bifurcation is a key consideration for investors evaluating office exposure, as asset quality increasingly determines leasing performance.
Rate policy remains a headwind. The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points in September 2026, its first increase in three years. A&M also cites tariffs and geopolitical risk as factors complicating the outlook for borrowers and investors.
In data centers, A&M reports that artificial intelligence is changing site selection, with power availability now a primary driver. The report frames these trends as the basis for its outlook into 2027, with asset-class-level metrics available in the full report.
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