Key Takeaways
- • Hardman & Co analyst Mark Thomas says NB Private Equity Partners (LON:NBPE) is set for stronger realisations, with full-year 2026 realisations expected to reach at least 18% of opening NAV versus a three-year average of 13.5%.
- • Investment companies' EBITDA growth accelerated to 12% year on year at end-June 2026, up from 10% at the end of 2025, which Thomas describes as the key driver of long-term value creation.
- • NBPE allocated a further $120 million to buybacks in June 2026, doubling its total buyback allocation; $164 million had been deployed at the time of results, repurchasing 8.3 million shares at a 28% discount and adding 5.6% to NAV.
- • The dividend yield is approaching 5%, and the analyst sees realisations as a possible trigger for closing the discount to NAV.
- • Thomas cites five drivers for exits: an exit-ready mature portfolio, high industry dry powder, GP liquidity demands, AI-driven efficiency gains, and new exit routes such as continuation funds.
Summary
In an interview with DirectorsTalk, Hardman & Co analyst Mark Thomas discussed NB Private Equity Partners Limited (LON:NBPE) following the company's end-June 2026 results, which he characterised as showing acceleration across several areas. Thomas said investment companies' EBITDA growth rose to 12% year on year, from 10% at the end of 2025, and argued that portfolio company EBITDA growth is the key driver of long-term value creation.
Realisations are also accelerating. According to Thomas, NBPE expects full-year 2026 realisations of at least 18% of opening NAV, compared with a three-year average of 13.5%. He added that the manager, Neuberger, has nearly tripled its deal-origination opportunities on the platform in 2026 relative to 2020 levels.
Thomas outlined five drivers he expects to support medium-term exits: a mature, exit-ready portfolio; high industry dry powder concentrated in larger funds that act as natural buyers; GP demand for liquidity driven by investor pressure; AI-enabled efficiency gains that allow more deals to reach hurdle rates; and newer exit routes such as continuation funds. He acknowledged that quarterly results may be uneven, citing weak quarters in Q2 2022 and 2024 that were followed by strong fourth quarters, and said the path would not be smooth.
On capital returns, Thomas said NBPE had previously kept a conservative balance sheet, repaying long-term debt in 2022 and 2024 and limiting new investment after accelerating exits in 2020 and 2021. With greater visibility on cash generation, the company has increased buybacks: in June 2026 it allocated a further $120 million, doubling the total allocation, and $164 million had been deployed by the time of results, repurchasing 8.3 million shares at a 28% discount. Thomas said this added 5.6% to NAV. The dividend yield is now approaching 5%.
Thomas identified risks including sentiment, costs, a potentially higher-for-longer rate cycle, realisation volatility, the duration of the discount, and potential AI disruption to software businesses. He characterised these as sentiment issues that do not reflect the underlying reality as he sees it. He also noted that his report carries a standard disclaimer restricting distribution in certain jurisdictions, including the US, and is intended for professional and qualified investors in the UK.
Realisations are also accelerating. According to Thomas, NBPE expects full-year 2026 realisations of at least 18% of opening NAV, compared with a three-year average of 13.5%. He added that the manager, Neuberger, has nearly tripled its deal-origination opportunities on the platform in 2026 relative to 2020 levels.
Thomas outlined five drivers he expects to support medium-term exits: a mature, exit-ready portfolio; high industry dry powder concentrated in larger funds that act as natural buyers; GP demand for liquidity driven by investor pressure; AI-enabled efficiency gains that allow more deals to reach hurdle rates; and newer exit routes such as continuation funds. He acknowledged that quarterly results may be uneven, citing weak quarters in Q2 2022 and 2024 that were followed by strong fourth quarters, and said the path would not be smooth.
On capital returns, Thomas said NBPE had previously kept a conservative balance sheet, repaying long-term debt in 2022 and 2024 and limiting new investment after accelerating exits in 2020 and 2021. With greater visibility on cash generation, the company has increased buybacks: in June 2026 it allocated a further $120 million, doubling the total allocation, and $164 million had been deployed by the time of results, repurchasing 8.3 million shares at a 28% discount. Thomas said this added 5.6% to NAV. The dividend yield is now approaching 5%.
Thomas identified risks including sentiment, costs, a potentially higher-for-longer rate cycle, realisation volatility, the duration of the discount, and potential AI disruption to software businesses. He characterised these as sentiment issues that do not reflect the underlying reality as he sees it. He also noted that his report carries a standard disclaimer restricting distribution in certain jurisdictions, including the US, and is intended for professional and qualified investors in the UK.
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