Key Takeaways
- • Central European PE Confidence Index rebounded to 133, significantly above the historical average of 116, signaling strong regional optimism for 2026 despite earlier winter survey softness.
- • Market activity expectations stabilized with 61% of respondents anticipating flat conditions (up from 47% in the previous survey), while 28% expect growth and only 11% forecast declines—a marked shift from prior pessimism.
- • Debt availability sentiment reached its most optimistic level in a decade, with 41% of investors expecting increased debt financing access (up from 31%) and 53% expecting liquidity to remain stable, reflecting expanded funding from banks and alternative lenders across the region.
- • Economic sentiment strengthened materially, with 58% expecting stable conditions and 24% anticipating improvement, while pessimists forecasting decline fell to 18% from higher prior levels.
- • Confidence recovery attributed to reduced uncertainty following the new US administration, allowing deal participants to navigate regulatory and macroeconomic shifts with greater certainty.
Summary
The Deloitte Private Equity Confidence Survey for Central Europe 2025 reveals a region entering 2026 with substantially restored investor conviction after a winter softening. The Central European PE Confidence Index climbed to 133, a recovery that positions the market well above its historical average of 116 and reflects a fundamental shift in sentiment among deal-makers and capital allocators operating across the region.
The rebound is evident across three critical dimensions. First, expectations for market activity have stabilized considerably—61% of survey respondents now anticipate activity levels to remain unchanged, a meaningful increase from 47% in the prior survey cycle. Simultaneously, growth expectations, while moderating from 39% to 28%, remain constructive, with only 11% projecting contraction. This distribution suggests investors are positioning for a steady operating environment rather than either sustained expansion or deterioration.
Debt availability sentiment represents perhaps the most notable positive inflection. Forty-one percent of respondents now expect increased debt financing access—up from 31% previously—marking the most optimistic debt outlook in a decade. Combined with 53% expecting liquidity to remain stable, this indicates meaningful capital replenishment from traditional banking channels and emerging alternative lenders operating throughout Central Europe. For deal execution, this expanded funding availability removes a structural constraint that had constrained activity in earlier periods.
Economic fundamentals underpinning investment decisions have also strengthened. Fifty-eight percent of respondents expect economic conditions to remain stable, while 24% anticipate improvement. Crucially, pessimism has compressed materially: only 18% now forecast economic decline, down substantially from prior survey periods. This reflects both regional macro resilience and reduced policy uncertainty.
Deloitte Partner and Private Equity Leader Jan Vomacka attributed the confidence recovery to temporal distance from the US administration transition, enabling deal participants to establish clearer visibility into regulatory and policy direction. As uncertainties settled, investors regained operational comfort despite continued macroeconomic complexity. The 2025 Central European survey—conducted on a six-month cadence since 2003—demonstrates that conviction can be rapidly restored when policy signals stabilize and funding conditions expand.
The rebound is evident across three critical dimensions. First, expectations for market activity have stabilized considerably—61% of survey respondents now anticipate activity levels to remain unchanged, a meaningful increase from 47% in the prior survey cycle. Simultaneously, growth expectations, while moderating from 39% to 28%, remain constructive, with only 11% projecting contraction. This distribution suggests investors are positioning for a steady operating environment rather than either sustained expansion or deterioration.
Debt availability sentiment represents perhaps the most notable positive inflection. Forty-one percent of respondents now expect increased debt financing access—up from 31% previously—marking the most optimistic debt outlook in a decade. Combined with 53% expecting liquidity to remain stable, this indicates meaningful capital replenishment from traditional banking channels and emerging alternative lenders operating throughout Central Europe. For deal execution, this expanded funding availability removes a structural constraint that had constrained activity in earlier periods.
Economic fundamentals underpinning investment decisions have also strengthened. Fifty-eight percent of respondents expect economic conditions to remain stable, while 24% anticipate improvement. Crucially, pessimism has compressed materially: only 18% now forecast economic decline, down substantially from prior survey periods. This reflects both regional macro resilience and reduced policy uncertainty.
Deloitte Partner and Private Equity Leader Jan Vomacka attributed the confidence recovery to temporal distance from the US administration transition, enabling deal participants to establish clearer visibility into regulatory and policy direction. As uncertainties settled, investors regained operational comfort despite continued macroeconomic complexity. The 2025 Central European survey—conducted on a six-month cadence since 2003—demonstrates that conviction can be rapidly restored when policy signals stabilize and funding conditions expand.
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